There is always some uncertainty associated with key factors that will affect demand and supply of forest products. It is, however, possible to prepare an outlook for forest sector in which scenarios are used to organise and display possible future developments and the magnitude of uncertainty surrounding these projections.
In this scenario, the civil strive in Southern Sudan is amicably resolved. The countries sharing the Nile Basins too have resolved their internal problems and all of them have come together to cope the environmental degradation problems.
Fulfilment of Sudan to its commitment to the International Conventions and effective implementation and development of several Strategic National Action Plans succeeds.
3.1.1 Assumptions
Development of economic status:
Improvement and accessibility to forest resources in Southern Sudan
Integrated resource management
Model agriculture projects that take the tree into consideration will be formulated
Process land use planning, reservation, registration, afforestation, reforestation, range rehabilitation and management is started and continued
An integrated forest management project is formulated, financed and implemented
Development in forest industries:
Environmental rehabilitation policies
Environmental management integrated in all sectoral areas of policy and action. I.e. multi sectoral approaches are vital (co-operation among governments, non-governmental organisations, private sector and local communities)
Petroleum production:
Utilisation of Sudan of its oil resources
Positive economic impact (GDP)
It will bring in hard currency (Improved infrastructure and the construction of model villages that require building poles and timber will be a reality)
Provision of alternatives to fuel wood
3.2 SCENARIO 2: ACCOMMODATING THE PREDICTABLE
The predictable engines of drive that have negative impact on forestry continue. The scenario is restricted to the Northern States (the area between latitude 10°-22° N). The area below 10° N that constitutes the Southern States is inaccessible at the outlook period, because of the insecurity situation created by the civil war.
Assumptions
Agricultural expansion:
Since the 1980s the government adopted a horizontal expansion policy (area increase) in the agricultural sector to meet the successive increase in the population needs and to insure food security. This trend is also adopted in the Government projections towards the year 2015. This will definitely require the conversion of more forests and rangelands to meet this expansion.
The ever increasing national life stock and its dependence on forest and woodland for forage will have negative impact on tree/shrub regeneration and vigor.
Petroleum production:
Utilisation of Sudan to its oil resources has positive economic impact. There is provision of alternatives to fuel wood in the way of kerosene and Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG). Investments in petroleum resource have impact in supply and demand of biomass energy especially on household and industrial sectors.
Population dynamics:
Expansions of human settlement at the expense of tree cover, leading to the increase in the use of bricks in building and the consequent increase of firewood for brick production.
3.3.1 Outlook for Area under forests, forest cover, and growing stock:
According to FAO the forest area have decreased from 34% in 1958 to 17.5% 1n 1998 of the total country area. The forest and woodland area in Sudan is currently amounts to 85.90 million ha. This area represents 34.5% of the total land area of the country. 8.86 million ha constituted as forest reserves and under reservation, which make 3.6% of the total area of the country (FNC 2000).
3.3.2 Forest Resources
A growing stock inventory at low intensity to provide ground truth was carried out in selected areas including the Blue Nile, White Nile and Kassala States in 1982. The result of these activities indicates an increase in total growing stock to 1.994 million m3 . However, analysis of the ground truth data reveals severe reduction in growing stock volumes, particularly in the once heavily forested areas of the Blue Nile, where the growing stock is estimated to be only one-third of previous estimate, i.e. less than 9 m3 per hectare. Preliminary data from these surveys indicate a total annual allowable cut of 15.1 m3 million of wood for the Northern Sudan and 20.3 m3 million for the Southerner’s. As results of the uncertainty no reliable database exists for forestry planning purpose, against this background the National Forest Inventory (FNC) has been carried out in 1995. The NFI covered an area of 62 million ha, which is 24.9% of the total area of Sudan. The findings reflect total volume of all woods vegetation and annual allowable cut, see Table 1.
Table 1: Total volume of all woods vegetation and annual allowable cut in the inventoried area
|
Sector |
Total volume of all woody vegetation m3 |
Annual allowable cut (increment m3) |
|
River Nile |
672,000 |
47,040 |
|
Eastern |
3,234,000 |
226,380 |
|
Central * |
29,531,000 |
2,067,170 |
|
Kordufan |
44,218,800 |
3,095,316 |
|
Darfur |
89,096,800 |
6,236,776 |
|
Total |
166,752,600 |
11,672,682 |
Sources: Sudan National Forest Inventory (1998).
*Khartoum, Gezira, Sennar, Blue Nile and White Nile States.
3.3.3 Outlook for state of natural forests
The area of natural forest is approximately 85.90 million ha in 1999 (according to NFI for Northern States and projection for Southern States). The natural forests under reservation and proposed for reservation are approximately 8 million ha.
Unfortunately, the area of reserved natural forests under Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) amounts to 80,000 ha. The rest of the natural forest resource is managed, in best case, with only one element of SFM, which is forest guarding. Although, more than 80% of national consumption of fuel wood in Sudan is produced from the natural forests.
According to scenario 1:
- Natural forests are expected to rehabilitate and restore
- Additional areas of natural forests are likely to be reserved for Eco-tourism and
biodiversity conservation, as utilisation is permitted through effective management plans
Applying scenario 2:
- Would lead to decline in natural forest area to million ha in 2020. As in the past, some of this will be due to conversion to plantation or other land uses.
3.3.4 Outlook for state of plantation forestry
Plantations in Sudan can be classified as reserved forests established by reforestation. They are mainly stocked by indigenous species as Acacia senegal, Acacia nilotica and Khaya senegalensis together with exotic species as Eucalyptus and Tectona grandis. The plantation within forest reserves is about 453,000 ha. They have the following main objectives:
Sustained supply of general utility timber
house construction and rough furniture for rural areas
High-grade timber for quality furniture, urban houses
Development of foreign exchange–earners e.g. gum Arabic gardens
Creation of shelter belts as a measure of augmenting agricultural yield or for protection purposes such as sand dune fixation and creation of aesthetic plantain around habitations
Estimates of current plantation in the agricultural schemes and sugar companies are approximately 1 million ha. 42,000 ha are plantation owned by local communities.
Criteria and indicators of SFM which include; implementation of all silvicultural and tending operations are not effective in most forests. Experience from the field showed that there is a considerable amount of divergence from the proper work plan.
According to scenario 1:
- As there is a development in economic status this will grantee that all forest lands would be reforested by fast growing tree species to provide industrial wood. And as we expected integrated resource management, the outlook towards 2020 will be planting of thousands hectors in irrigated agricultural schemes, which represent the reaming area of the 5%.
Applying scenario 2:
- The estimates of current plantation establishment were obtained from FNC afforestation programmes, which is affected by the investment capability available annually so there is no definite establishment rate to calculate the proposed accumulative area at 2020. For the agricultural schemes and sugar companies an area should be afforested. Mobilising local communities will ensure their involvement in tree planting it reflects sufficient economic returns.
3.3.5 Outlook for state of trees outside forests
Trees outside forest-area are trees growing in public utilities (e.g. schools, public yards, institutions), houses and highways. This type of trees exhibit the typical tree shape referred to as wolf trees. The contribution of such trees in wood products is very little because they are essentially planted for shade, amenity, decoration and protection purposes. The existence of trees outside forest area is not intensive, and there is no calculated data reflecting the number of trees or the area.
3.3.6 Outlook for status of non-wood forest products
It is not possible to develop a quantitative outlook to NWFPs except for gum Arabic. Data of production, supply and marketing is not available to enable adequate modelling. Nevertheless, there is considerable evidence that NWFPs are both socially and commercially important particularly for poor rural people living close to forests. At the same time collection, processing and distribution NWFPs in organised markets provides employment for large numbers of people. Building the outlook model for NWFPs entails descriptive projections that differ in some of the assumed forces of change.
Scenario 1:
Regarding macro-level policy reforms, the main change will be related to the government commitment to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which requires privatisation and liberalisation of the economic activities. The other policy change assumed is to abide by the international environmental conventions. In addition it is expected that forest policy will be integrated in land use policy and planning. Within the forestry sector, the main changes are related to the increasing rate of reservation and addressing socio-economic aspects, including benefits to local population and participatory management.
The main influence of the supply of NWFPs is the area under forest cover. The integration of forestry into landuse policy and planning will ensure that other activities will not grow at the expense of forestry. Investments will be directed to activities that provide best real value. This requires the application of evaluation methods that integrates economic, social and environmental effects in the estimation exercise.
The realisation of the targeted area of forest cover and forest reserves (even if not fully realised) will contribute to increasing areas under forest. This will positively influence the total supply of NWFPs.
On the demand side, secured supply of gum will surely but slowly lead to the regaining of the country's position in the gum Arabic world market. Studies, inventories and research work will be carried out to assess the NWFPs for maximum utilisation.
Scenario 2:
In this scenario the present situation is assumed to persist. That is, present forces that affect demand and supply will not change.
Regarding gum Arabic, if the present situation continues, supply will continue its declining trend by an average rate of (-0.02) metric tons per year. By the year 2020 supply will reach 9000 metric tons. On the other hand, the average rate of growth of demand is (-0.04) metric tons per year. This means that quantities demanded will reach as low as 5000 metric tons in the year 2020.
As was learnt from experience, declining supply encourages users to shift away from natural gums to substitutes. Returns to producers will considerably be affected since decreasing supply is also accompanied by a decline in demand. This will eventually lead to complete abandonment of the gum business. Signs of this have already been witnessed.
Regarding other NWFPs a major factor to be considered is how growing prosperity may affect the numbers and habits of forest-dependent people. Although within the 2020 horizon of this outlook study the absolute numbers of forest dependent people may not decline, their needs and demands could change significantly as alternative livelihood opportunities open up to them.
3.3.7 Outlook for conservation of biodiversity & protective functions of forests
Sudan’s government gives an increased attention to forest conservation & protection of biodiversity exemplified in the comprehensives strategic plan. That means protected area and game reserve should cover about 56 million ha to constitute 25% of the Sudan area. Including different categories, aiming for protection of wildlife in mountain, desert and wetlands.
Some forest formations are unique in the Sudan e.g. relics of Rain forest (Bowl forests) in Equatoria. These areas are suggested to be reserved both for their flora and fauna resources.
Scenario 1:
Adoption of unified environment law and the enforcement of existing land legislation & customary rights concerning land ownership, management forest resources will be satisfied to conserve diversity of species and will be in harmony of Sudan national biodiversity strategy and action plan. Efforts will take place to reser ve the targeted areas.
Scenario 2:
There are the complex relationship and contradictions between land legislation and customary rights, in particular concerning land ownership. So future opportunities for protection by establishing the same system of game reserves or at least forest reserves managed in the same way are decreasing with the increase of population densities. Inadequately regulated harvesting for fuel wood production, increased demand for commercially popular species, traditional use of forests by rural population and others.
The key challenges are to achieve balances among the multiple roles of forest to provide the greatest overall benefits & to adopt measures that keep the sector responsible to changing needs without compromising the sustainability of forest resources as well as management of forests for non-marketed services.
New protected areas may need to be in more closely defined conservation categories.
The system of biosphere reserves as a new concept involving further and more sustainable local and indigenous communities would demand sacrifices for conservation of biodiversity to be more acceptable locally.
3.3.8 Outlook for state of park management and Eco-tourism
While all protected areas control human occupancy or use of resources to some extent, there is a wide variation in the degree of such control. If we evaluate the state of Park Management with regard to the effective management policy measures as:
Planning problems that lead to extensive mechanised agriculture
Enforcement of law
Improvement or rehabilitation of habitats (by different techniques)
Promotion of corrective actions such as afforestation and reforestation
Control of deforestation
It is clear that they lack all this measures, even there is no effective presence of authorities in any area designated as protected area. Management status can be rated as unsatisfactory. The protected area especially National Parks faced by land–use, the deterioration of natural rangelands, deforestation and settlement of displaced populations.
Scenario 1:
Rehabilitation of protected areas (Northern & Southern Sudan) through a planned mix of National Parks and other categories of protected areas, a midst production forests, agriculture, and grazing conservation can serve human community and safeguard the well-being of future generations of people living in balance with their local ecosystems. Some Natural forests are reserved and withdrawn from wood production and developed for recreation and Eco-tourism. Proposed protected areas may be established.
Scenario 2:
The current status of park management (National parks and forests) is expected to continue, threatening the biodiversity; this will affect the Eco-tourism.
3.4.1 Outlook for forests industries
According to the information that has been mentioned in chapter 2, about the low level of forest industry in the Sudan, two scenarios have prepared forest industry outlook towards 2020.
Scenario1:
Large areas of natural forests characterised with high production quality saw logs.
Great amounts of woody material are available from savannah woodland as result of a decreased consumption of fuel wood
Large areas of plantations forest with high production of wood from fast growing species
Large quantities of agricultural residues
Polices in favour of investment
Adequate infrastructure for the development of the wood-based industry
Many local and foreign investors interested in forest-based industries
High demand for forest products. The production of round wood is 15.77 million m³; there is no doubt that this demand will increase throughout the foreseeable future.
The key determinant factors of the demand placed on forest industry products include economic performance, population growth, trend toward urbanisation, technological advancement, price competitiveness and consumer preferences for forest products compared to non-forest products.
The per capita consumption of local fuel is expected to decline as a result of local production of gas and other oil-products. However, total consumption may not decrease in absolute terms a result of increasing population especially in the rural areas unless this is accompanied by some measures that encourage the shift to oil products. Energy is expected to remain the main wood consumer over this period.
Any measures taken to promote the replacement of gas for fuel wood will probably have clear effects in the urban and Peri-urban areas. This will lead to reduction in the consumption of charcoal, which will result in releasing the pressure on vast areas of the savannahs, forest. Consequently, considerable amount of wood material can be saved or used to supply other wood industries.
The production of wood-based panels is predicted to increase significantly, using some of the wood previously supplying the charcoal industry and plantations wood products, and supplemented by the saw milling and myriad agricultural residues.
The species occurring in the semi-desert and dry savannah of the central and northern Sudan are not suitable as raw material for the production of plywood, or veneer on account of their technological properties, their stem form, and their total yield. This species will be good reserve for pulp and paper industry and some wood-based panels. Pulp and paper industry may be established using raw material mentioned before.
Saw milling and furniture industry, which consumes 2.5% of he total round wood consumption, is expected to increase. Main supply of wood for saw milling, furniture, plywood and veneer industries will be from the natural and plantation forests in southern Sudan.
Price of all forest products will probably decline due to the competition, although demand will continue to be strong in the region. Products and technological substitution could cause prices to decline.
Sawn wood import to the country will remain the same, but plywood and other wood-based panels import may decline.
Scenario 2:
An increased demand associated with a decreased supply of forest products.
Increased use of agricultural residues for energy, fodder and other uses.
Forest-based industries are not attractive to the local or foreign investors.
Charcoal industry is predicted to increase due to the increase of population and emigration toward urban areas. Agricultural residues will have a considerable share in household energy consumption.
A decline in supply of saw logs is expected during the next two decades. Wood-based industries have little chase if any, to flourish. Import of softwood-sawn wood and wood-based panels will increase.
3.4.2 Outlook for roundwood and other products demand–supply situation
Supply of forest wood products:
To determine the contribution of forest product supplies, three sources can be distinguished: production from natural forest, plantation, agricultural schemes and village woodlots.
The sustainable annual increment is of the order of
Natural rainfed forest with MAI (Mean Annual Increment) of 1.0-1.6 m3 RWE o.b. (Standing) per ha.
Irrigated Plantations of Eucalyptus micro theca: MAI of 12 m3 RWE o.b. (Standing) per ha.
Village wood lots: the production cannot be estimated at present.
The supply of wood is based on the formulation of equation for supply that content the stock, the area and the allowable stock which give the annual allowable cut. At the States level: it indicates that the Northern, Central and Eastern States have less growth rate represents only 0.01, 0.5, and 0.26 respectively that means the need for more forests policies in the future to alleviate the severe degradation and to control the degradation that affects the areas. Western Sudan has a good stock, which means that the growth rate of forests is higher than that in the previous States.
The Demand:
It is important for the forestry sector to develop the use of wood as a raw material for the production of high value products e.g. paper, pulp and furniture; wood for construction is expected to continue assuming an important role in the country in both rural and urban areas.
When we assess the demand for wood products, using the 1994 survey. The calculation is based on the consumption of the different sectors, see Table 2.
Table 2: Wood Demand projection towards 2020
|
Types |
1993 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
1020 |
|
Fuelwood |
11,998,131 |
13,253,748 |
13,759,271 |
14,728,291 |
15,461,804 |
|
Wood Construction |
1,257,774 |
1,167,216 |
1,033,225 |
1,365,780 |
1,471,711 |
|
Wood furniture |
241,022 |
268,566 |
285,584 |
304,733 |
327,726 |
|
Total |
13,494,934 |
14,687,530 |
15,076,075 |
16,396,794 |
17,259,221 |
Outlook for wood fuel and other biomass based energy supply
Wood fuel is an important energy source in national energy budget, driving forces affecting future utilisation are:
Investment and refining of petroleum: utilisation especially in household and traditional industries sectors, (supply)
Policy to words petroleum products prices e.g. reduction of LPG price (dropped by 50%) by year 2000
Population dynamics: baseline projections of population dynamics suggest that by 2020 Sudan will have increase in urban pop. by 110%(10.8 mill. to 22.7 mill.), while rural population increased by 11% (19.05 mill to 21.1 mill.) this due to fact that urban-rural migration coupled with population growth. Annual pop. Growth rate wills has annual rate of change estimated at 2.76% during 1995-2000) suggested to declined to 1.1% during 2015-2020
Availability of other renewable energy technology
Major constraints for LPG utilisation household sector.
Social: low socio-economic status of majority of wood fuel users hence they cannot access to gas equipment
Economic: financial feasibility of large scale, wood fuel supplies where majority of poor collect their fuel wood as public good, therefore income effect is negligible
Lack of infra structure such as absence of LPG centres in remote rural areas
Scenario 1:
Household sector
It is assumed that fire wood and charcoal per capita consumption in urban areas declined at annual rate of 2.5% (50% by 2020) on account shift towards non-biomass energy. In rural areas the annual rate will decline by 0.5% during 2000-2005, and by the same rate as in urban areas during 2006-2020
Scenario 2:
Household sector
Wood fuel use in rural and urban areas is assumed to decline at annual rate of 5.5% due to shift in non-biomass energy sources (10% by 2020).
Service sector
According to assumed growth (5.43%) rate of services in Sudan, rate of increase of wood fuel consumption assumed to be constant during 1994-2000 increases. Then declined by 0.45% during 2001-2010 declined by 0.48% during 2010-2020.
Industrial sector
According to assumed growth rates of industry in Sudan, rate of increase of wood fuel consumption assumed as 0.09%, which is constant during 1994-2000, then declined by 0.11% during 2001-2010 and by 0.14% during 2010-200.
Table 3: Summary of wood fuel consumption scenarios in 2020 (per 000 m³)
|
SECTOR |
SCENARIO |
FW |
CHAR. |
TOTAL |
|
HOUSEHOLD |
* |
8,219.201 |
6,196.655 |
14,415.856 |
|
S1 |
96,796.93315 |
272,273.6129 |
36,9070.5461 |
|
|
S2 |
180,055.2989 |
218,135.4654 |
398,190.7643 |
|
|
INDUSTRIAL |
* |
1,050.174 |
11.673 |
1,061.847 |
|
S1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
S2 |
27,191.85639 |
302.9144661 |
27,494.77085 |
|
|
SERVICES |
* |
240.68 |
283.899 |
524.579 |
|
S1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
S2 |
6,175.668401 |
497,204.2198 |
810,758.3632 |
|
|
TOTAL |
* |
9,510.055 |
6,492.227 |
16,002.282 |
|
S1 |
96,796.93315 |
272,273.6129 |
369,070.5461 |
|
|
S2 |
6,175.668401 |
7,283.210325 |
1,236,443.898 |
*BASE YEAR (1994)
S1 SCENARIO 1 (THE DREAM)
S2 SCENARIO 2 (ACCOMMODATE THE PREDICTABLE)
3.4.3 Outlook for social and economic implications
Employment:
Forestry activities provide significant opportunities for employment and income generation in almost all-rural areas of Northern Sudan. The opportunities will increase with adoption of forest industry.
The income of other stakeholders:
Income from forest products seldom accounts for a large share of a household's total income, but is often important in filling seasonal or other cash-flow gaps. The importance of forests incomes usually lies more in its timing.
The share of individuals in agricultural land in Sudan is declining. Official figures indicate that the per capita agricultural land has declined from 0.67 ha in 1980 to 0.61 ha in 1997 and is expected to drop to 0.49 ha by the year 2025 (Danielson and Hammerskjold, 2000). Forest products increasingly provide one of the main sources of non-farm income to rural households (Arnold, 1997). Extra non-farm income generation from forestry in Sudan is dwindling for two reasons. First, the per capita forest area is declining e.g. where it was 2.56 ha in 1980, 1.56 ha in 1995, and is expected to drop to 0.70 ha in 2025. Second, the relationship between population concentration and forest resource abundance is inverse. Well-stocked forests are found in areas where populations are originally sparse and are reduced further by the displacement caused by civil unrest or depopulation for economic reasons. However, the potential of these forests to provide non-farm income is diverse.
Forest foods and food security:
Sudan forests extend across several agro-ecological zones, which imply the existence of a variety of fauna and flora species. Traditionally, forests of Sudan have been managed by forest-based communities to satisfy their needs for forest products. An accumulated indigenous knowledge with respect to the local use of trees and forests to provide food and other non-wood materials has been recognised. Badi (1993) prepared, from available literature only, an exhaustive list of forest species bearing non-wood forest products. The list includes above 150 tree species. Forest fauna is also contributing to food security through the provision of different kinds of bushmeat. Permitted hunting in hunting blocks is targeted against some wildlife species that are known for its quality meat. While the later is connected with tourism, local communities share the former. During the periods of drought that hit the Sahel, the fruits of Cordia africana and the fruits of Boscia senegalensis were used extensively by local people as famine foods. Forestry was making the difference between being and not being for rural communities at these critical moments.
3.4.4 Outlook for forest services
It is not possible at present to develop a quantitative outlook for services of forests. Data is too scarce to enable formal modelling. The importance of forest services is largely described in chapter 2. The outlook forest-provided services will range between two extremes.
Applying scenario I:
It would be marked with intensive efforts to control deforestation and forest degradation. The value of NWFPs should acknowledged. That will be done by Sudan government commitment to the global International Conventions and effective implementation and development of the several strategic National Action Regional and inter-regional collaboration and co-operation would promote sharing responsibility to the Nile Basin and its watersheds. Therefore forest policies would be integrated into land use policies & development of broad partnership forestry programs.
Energy change patterns to substitutes (LPG & kerosene) might elevate the pressure exerted on forests, But that will lead to reduced financial return to forestry sector and related fields, from such investment. Hence achieving sustainable financing to manage natural forests for non-marketed services is the major challenge facing the sector.
Strategies and mechanisms for better mobilisation of both national & external financial resources for securing sustainable management of forest resources should be developed. FNC would conserve trees of less valuable timber for the production of non-wood products and services. Many forest formations, especially those proposed for reservation (e.g. Mangrove and bowel forests) would be stated reserved. Rates of Reservation as stated in the constitutional decree to 25% of Sudan total area, would be activated with more plantation, woodlots and shelterbelts. The efforts have to be pursued and intensified in the next biennium.
Parks will succeed in realising their conservation objectives only to the extent that the areas themselves are effectively managed and to the extent that the management of the land surrounding them is compatible with the objectives of the protected areas.
Scenario 2:
Continuing disregard the values of forest services in institutional policies (At the National or the sectoral level) as coupled with poor and ineffective implementation of the National Action Plans for development of Natural Resources, would result in substantial devastating effect in forest status and functions. It would be reflected on widespread deforestation, increased felling of trees due to more agriculture expansion. (As stated in Agriculture strategic plan of Action 2000). Subsequently agricultural productivity will fall. Hence, the appearance of rapid shrinking of forest formation, if this continued, would mark more degraded landscape leading to more devastating conditions. The huge migration of rural people surrounding protected areas would continue, leading to biodiversity loss and environmental hazards. Deforestation will affect watershed quality and quantity due to the increased rate of erosion.
Only limited additional areas of natural forest and wildlife areas are likely to be reserved for Eco-tourism and biodiversity conservation. Unless buffer zone development and other utilisation patterns are permitted through effective management plans otherwise strict protection of parks will be come increasingly difficult.
3.5.1 The structure and functions of forest and wildlife administrations
The creation of FNC fits in with the rethinking of the role of Government in the guidance, stimulation and control of the national economy, as laid down in a publication about the National Economic Salvation Programme of June 1990. FNC as stated before (chapter one) is affiliated to Ministry of Agriculture when commenced in 1989. In 1995 it had joint the newly established Ministry of Environment & Tourism, and since 1997 it again joined Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Difficulties encountered by forestry services may be summarised as follows:
Lack of integration with other public bodies in the rural environment, inadequate contact with NGOs and private enterprise
Excessive administrative and technical decentralisation, and insufficient delegation of responsibilities
Lack of funds (working credits), equipment and suitably trained personnel at all levels, especially in out posted services: the modest resources allocated, in comparison with the enormous amount of work to be done, lead to discouragement
Since 1995, the Wildlife Administration joined the new established Ministry of Environment and Tourism. The Wildlife Administration offices in southern Sudan were separated in 1972 following the establishment of the Regional government of southern Sudan.
Scenario 1:
Enhanced awareness of the benefits & values of forest services and wildlife would gain a more positive future. Co-operation will be an important part of future decision processes. Co-operation is needed in areas such as watershed management, capacity building, technological development etc.
It is clear that commitment to research and development will be essential, if the sector is faced to meet the emerging challenges and opportunities.
Scenario 2:
The Government is not able to provide all necessary funds for development and actual expenditures were far less than original plans. The FNC, pasture & range and the Wildlife Administration lack funds to conduct its role in a satisfactory way or even for practising any conservation measures. The forestry and Wildlife Units in the States lack facilities such as transportation and equipment for expecting any management and law enforcement programs. Affiliations to different Ministries would continue conflicts of interests and non-integrated Natural Resource Polices.
3.5.2 New roles for private sector & local communities in forest management
The Forests Act of 1989 is a benchmark in the development of forest resources in the Sudan. For the first time, the Act recognised the right of ownership of forests by the private sector and local communities. Since the Act came into force, the roles of the private sector and local communities in forest management have increased.
The involvement of local communities in natural resource management has been traditionally practised in the Sudan. The FNC has recognised the importance of involving local people in forestry activities and in a number of reserved forests management plans are designed with the active participation of local people. It is expected that this trend will gradually be a common practice in most of the reserved forests.
The Sudanese Constitution (1998) states that the conservation and protection of environment is both a right and responsibility of the people. This is particularly relevant to the prevailing political scene in the country as regards the redistribution of powers and revenues being affected under the newly established federal system. Management of natural resources, especially forest, is expected to be the responsibility of local governments at state level and thus local communities will have a greater role in planting, protecting and managing their own forests.
Using scenario 1:
It is envisaged that the current trends in Sudan economy, elucidated in chapter 2 of this outlook paper, and the given anticipated shift from reliance on biomass for energy to LPG, that the private sector will be more involved in forest management for other purposes
As regards scenario 2:
The civil war will countries to bleed the economy leading to cleaning investment opportunities. The determining involvement of local people and the civil socially at large is the extent of democracy, freedom of association and delegation of powers to local governments.
3.5.3 New arrangements in forestry education and research
For education and training although faculties and specialised schools now train growing numbers of university-level managers, the number of intermediate-level staff (technicians) and field staff (skilled workers) is far from meeting the needs. As it is, there are not enough to ensure traditional forestry tasks and this problem increases as new tasks are entrusted to these workers and increased and improved contacts with local populations prove necessary for forest development Lastly. In order to implement fieldwork, growing numbers of skilled labourers are required so as to increase site effectiveness and productivity.
Applied research projects should be conducted to resolve problems of forest formation shrinkage, soil stabilisation ad water shed management. To save guard the endangered plant, tree and animal species, gene banks & seed banks should be developed. Thus research projects would focus on genetics, breeding, tissue culture…etc. The development in wood industry, necessities the research in certain wood varieties. Areas of Research to be considered: -
Statistic of NWFPs (mechanical, aromatic, …)
Inventory & monitoring guidelines
Indicators and measures of productive functions of forests
Energy alternative sources
Socio-economic impacts or forest products utilisation
Petroleum Industry and its effect on fire wood consumption
Potentialities of Eco-tourism and recreations in forest parks
