Total world fish production peaked in 1989 at over 100 million tonnes in total reported catches. Although this figure declined between 1990 and 1992, preliminary data for 1993 indicate that total production amounts to over 101 million tonnes. Of this catch about 30% was utilized for non-food purposes, mainly for reduction to meal and oil. Fresh fish is the most important fish product for direct human consumption, its share of total production remaining at around 30% between 1970 and 1990. Frozen products have increased their share, while cured products have lost ground. Canned products have maintained their share of 12% over the period.

Apparent per caput consumption of food fish in 1993 is estimated at 13 kgs (defined as per caput fish supply for direct human consumption in live weight equivalent). This represents a drop from 1989, when per caput consumption peaked at 13.6 kgs. Regionally, per caput fish consumption was also higher in 1989 than in 1970. However upon closer examination of consumption trends in major regions, sub- regions, and countries, important differences are revealed. Examples of drops in per caput consumption can be found at individual country level; examples include Viet Nam and Bangladesh.

Asia is by far the most important region for direct human consumption of fish owing to the mixture of relatively high per caput consumption levels and large populations. For example, Japan had one of the highest per caput consumption levels in the world at 71 kgs. China accounted for 27% of the total growth in fish consumption in the period 1970-1990. Europe is the second largest food fish consuming continent. Generally consumption is higher in developed countries than in developing countries. The lowest levels of consumption are to be found in Africa and the Near East. However, there are exceptions: among the small developing island states in the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean as well as in the Caribbean, several countries have a per caput fish consumption of over 50 kgs a year.

Species and species group composition of fish consumption also changed in the period 1970-1990. The relative share of finfish declined, and that of crustaceans, molluscs and cephalopods increased. Freshwater finfish increased their share from 16% in 1970 to 22% in 1990. Marine demersal fish declined during the period and per caput consumption of pelagic species increased.

Such per caput and total supply figures do not necessarily reflect the importance of fish as food and for food security in the various regions. In countries where fish represents a large share of the total protein intake, the relative importance of fish is naturally higher. Apart from the small developing island states already mentioned, countries where this share exceeds 10% include a number of the countries in Southeast Asia and in West Africa.

Moreover, the distribution of fish and fishery products may differ significantly among regions and income groups within countries and fish as food may play different roles in these regions and groups. In many countries, especially developing countries, fish consumption depicts a highly skewed distribution with very high consumption in coastal areas where fish is often considered as staple foods. Furthermore, a study in Ghana (Heinbuch, 1994) shows that small smoked pelagic fish is the cheapest source of animal protein and therefore plays a significant role in the diets of lower income groups.

Factors that will help shape future demand for fish and fishery products include population growth, economic growth and the development of disposable income and higher purchasing power, and social factors such as traditional fish consumption patterns. Over time, traditional consumption patterns may change due to changes in social conditions, e.g., lifestyle and family structure. Attitudes towards fish may also change; in developed countries, fish is increasingly considered a healthy food. Other factors that influence food fish demand are the development and degree of sophistication of fish production, processing, distribution and marketing structures.

Exploratory calculations for future fish demand in 2010 give a world total food fish demand within the range of 100-120 million tonnes. Important regions for demand will include China, Japan and the rest of Asia, Europe including the former Soviet Union, and North America. However, as with apparent consumption trends, quite important regional disparities will occur, both among and within regions and sub-regions.

It is difficult to predict demand by product type and species groups. Nonetheless general trends can be identified such as increased demand for fresh and frozen products, and for value-added products. This is mainly due to more disposable income, hence purchasing power. Price will be an important determining factor in the demand for species groups. While consumers in developed countries will continue to demand white fish and an increasing amount of shellfish, low value species will remain important for poorer populations in developing countries. Given the rather pessimistic prospects for economic growth in sub-Saharan African, high value species will probably continue to be exported and small pelagics, etc, consumed in the local market. However, if prices of demersal fish increase significantly due to supply constraints, habitual consumers of white fish may turn to cheaper alternatives - a trend that can be seen already.

Prices of fish compared to possible substitutes will also affect future demand for food fish. It appears clear that supplies of fish will not meet demand, and thus excess demand will increase prices. The way in which these price increases will be reflected in the demand and consumption patterns of the different regions will depend on the consumers' relative purchasing power and the priority fish is given in the menu. Generally, demand will probably be less affected in relatively rich countries where there are strong traditions of eating fish, e.g.., in Japan and in the emerging markets in East Asia, than in lower income countries that currently have modest fish consumption, for example in parts of Africa and South Asia. There is a risk that the present gap in average fish consumption between developed and developing countries could grow larger in the future.