HIGHLIGHTS
A major human catastrophe is unfolding in East Timor following the vote for independence. Thousands have been killed by armed militia and up to 400 000 have been displaced by the violence or forcibly deported. Many have taken refuge in mountain terrain and now face the risk of starvation as they have no access to food and water. The UN and aid agencies are air dropping urgent food supplies to areas most in need. Large scale food and rehabilitation assistance is likely for the coming months and possibly into next year. Elsewhere in Asia, maize production is likely to be reducrts of eastern Africa, due to adverse weather and/or civil strife. In Somalia, more than a million people face serious food shortages due to a poor "Gu" harvest, while in Ethiopia, the failure of "belg" crops increased the number of people needing food aid to more than 5 million. In Kenya, the food situation worsens in pastoral areas, as grain prices rise and those of livestock fall. In Uganda, prolonged drought in the west has decimated crops and severely affected livestock, whilst in Tanzania, serious crop failure affected several regions. The food situation is very tight in Eritrea for more than half a million people affected by war. In Sudan, some 2.4 million people in the south depend on emergency food assistance due toed in China by drought in key producing areas, whilst an erratic monsoon in India resulted in drought in parts, which will reduce rainfed production, and floods in others.
Food supply situation deteriorates in several parts of eastern Africa, due to adverse weather and/or civil strife. In Somalia, more than a million people face serious food shortages due to a poor "Gu" harvest, while in Ethiopia, the failure of "belg" crops increased the number of people needing food aid to more than 5 million. In Kenya, the food situation worsens in pastoral areas, as grain prices rise and those of livestock fall. In Uganda, prolonged drought in the west has decimated crops and severely affected livestock, whilst in Tanzania, serious crop failure affected several regions. The food situation is very tight in Eritrea for more than half a million people affected by war. In Sudan, some 2.4 million people in the south depend on emergency food assistance due to continuing civil war.
Food prospects remain precarious in Angola and are deteriorating as fighting intensifies and the number of displaced people increase. Deaths by starvation are reported from several parts. Distribution of emergency food aid is severely constrained by insecurity which has cut-off access to cities in the interior. Logistical support for airlifting food relief supplies is urgently needed. Elsewhere in southern Africa, overall food supply situation is tight in many parts due to reduced harvests.
In the Near East, the worst drought in decades severely reduced food production. In Afghanistan, sharply reduced cereal production will need to be covered by record imports, while in Iraq, drought damaged nearly half the total area cultivated. In Jordan, drought resulted in the lowest cereal harvest recorded, leaving some 180 000 vulnerable people in need of food assistance. Emergency assistance will also be needed in Syria for thousands of nomadic herders following the worst drought in living memory, which destroyed crops and pastures. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1999 cereal production fell sharply due to the worst drought in three decades.
Harvest prospects are favourable in the Sahel following widespread and above-normal rains in July and August. Crops are developing satisfactorily in the coastal countries of Western Africa. Although security remains volatile in Liberia and Sierra Leone, the overall food supply situation is improving.
In Central America and the Caribbean, harvesting of main season crops is underway and a recovery is expected following devastation last year from hurricanes `Mitch" and "Georges". In South America, 1999 wheat output is expected to decline in Bolivia due to poor rains
Grain production in the Russian Federation is likely to recover to about 60 million tonnes, but nevertheless, the grain supply situation will remain tight.
Large-scale international aid continues to be needed in Kosovo, where the bulk of this year's agricultural production was lost. Assistance is also required for affected populations elsewhere in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and in neighbouring countries.
In the United States, although maize prospects have deteriorated somewhat, due to dry hot conditions, output is still forecast to be about average.
In Australia another good wheat crop of about 22 million tonnes is in prospect following increased planting and generally favourable conditions.