According to UN projections, by 2030, 4.9 billion people (or sixty per cent of the worlds population) are expected to live in urban areas. Most of the population increase will be absorbed by the urban areas of the less developed regions, thus adding hundreds of thousands of inhabitants annually to their already crowded cities (see Figure I.1, Table I.1 and I.2).
Concurrently, urban growth is being accompanied by growth in the absolute numbers of people living close to or below poverty levels with some cities already facing poverty rates of fifty per cent or more (see Table I.3). How can this growing urban population, and particularly the poor families, be adequately fed?
Source: World Urbanization Prospects: the 1996 Revision, U. N.Table I.1 Estimated Increase in Urban Population in Selected Countries and Cities (base year 2000)
Country |
City |
Increase (%) |
|
2010 |
2020 |
||
Bangladesh |
Dacca |
57 |
145 |
Benin |
Urban pop. |
54 |
136 |
Botswana |
Urban pop. |
51 |
129 |
Burkina Faso |
Urban pop. |
59 |
153 |
Burundi |
Urban pop. |
77 |
212 |
Cambodia |
Urban pop. |
55 |
139 |
Cameroon |
Yaounde |
53 |
135 |
Chad |
Urban pop. |
53 |
135 |
Congo Dem. Rep. |
Kinshasa |
55 |
141 |
Côte dIvoire |
Abidjan |
53 |
134 |
Eritrea |
Urban pop. |
59 |
153 |
Ethiopia |
Addis Ababa |
64 |
168 |
Gambia |
Urban pop. |
49 |
121 |
Ghana |
Accra |
51 |
127 |
Guatemala |
Guatemala City |
46 |
112 |
Guinea |
Conakry |
60 |
155 |
Haiti |
Port au Prince |
45 |
110 |
Kenya |
Nairobi |
60 |
155 |
Laos |
Urban pop. |
55 |
140 |
Lesotho |
Urban pop. |
56 |
144 |
Liberia |
Urban pop. |
48 |
120 |
Madagascar |
Urban pop. |
59 |
152 |
Malawi |
Urban pop. |
67 |
180 |
Mali |
Urban pop. |
58 |
149 |
Mozambique |
Maputo |
55 |
142 |
Namibia |
Urban pop. |
45 |
110 |
Nepal |
Urban pop. |
61 |
158 |
Niger |
Urban pop. |
70 |
190 |
Nigeria |
Lagos |
54 |
138 |
Pakistan |
Lahore |
47 |
116 |
Rwanda |
Urban pop. |
70 |
187 |
Sierra Leone |
Urban pop. |
44 |
107 |
Somalia |
Mogadishu |
58 |
151 |
Sudan |
Khartoum |
56 |
143 |
Swaziland |
Urban pop. |
46 |
114 |
Tanzania |
Dar es Salaam |
55 |
140 |
Togo |
Urban pop. |
54 |
138 |
Uganda |
Kampala |
65 |
173 |
Zambia |
Lusaka |
49 |
122 |
Source: Habitat (1998) data, elaborated by the authors.Urban expansion has four major consequences for urban food security:
1. demand for land for housing, industry and infrastructure competes with agricultural production within and around cities. Suitable productive lands are thus likely to be lost;2. increasing quantities of food must be brought into cities and distributed within the expanding urban areas (see Table I.4). It means that an increasing number of foodloaded trucks will come into cities, thus contributing to traffic congestion and air pollution (see Table I.5). It also means additional stress on existing food distribution infrastructure and facilities, most of which are already inefficient, unhygienic and environmentally unfriendly;
3. consumption habits and food purchasing behaviour are modified (see Table 1.6). Consumers in urban areas, who generally pay up to thirty percent more for their food respect to their rural counterparts, have less time to spend preparing food; therefore the demand for more convenience and processed meals increases, raising further food quality and safety issues (in terms of the utilization of adequate inputs, particularly safe water in food processing). For example, food consumption in Hanoi based on staple food (rice, corn, and tubers), vegetable, beans has shifted to a diet with more meat, fish, eggs, milk, soft drink, canned and processed food. Home-prepared meals have been gradually replaced by restaurant and street food. The increasing demand for high quality cooked food in Hanoi has favoured the growth of "supermarkets" which are still insufficient;
4. low-income urban households are likely to reside farther and farther away from food markets, often in slums which do no get provided with water, roads, electricity, markets, etc. They are less likely to have refrigerators. This means that low-income urban households face additional costs, in time and transport, to access food daily.
Table I.2 Increase in Urban Population between 2000 and 2020 in Selected Cities From 1 000 000 to 2 000 000 additional inhabitants Amman, Belem, Benghazi, Brazzaville, Buenos Aires, Caracas, Guatemala City, Hanoi, Harare, Ibadan, La Paz, Managua, Maracaibo, Mogadishu, Port au Prince, Rabat, Seoul, Santiago, Shubra El-Khema, Tunis, Yaounde. From 2 000 000 to 5 000 000 additional inhabitants Abidjan, Accra, Addis Ababa, Alexandria, Algeri, Bandung, Bangkok, Baghdad, Bogota, Casablanca, Conakry, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Douala, Esfahan, Ho Chi Minh, Kampala, Khartoum, Lima, Luanda, Lusaka, Maputo, Mexico City, Nairobi, Sao Paulo, Teheran, Tripoli, Yangon. From 5 000 000 to 10 000 000 additional inhabitants Beijing, Cairo, Delhi, Kinshasa, Jakarta, Lahore, Metro Manila, Shanghai. More than 10 000 000 additional inhabitants Bombai, Dacca, Karachi, Lagos. Source: Habitat (1998) data, elaborated by the authors. |
Cities need more and more food which has to be produced and/or imported, transported and distributed throughout the urban areas.
Food security depends upon available income, consumers food habits and the costs faced by urban consumers in accessing food in hygienic conditions.
Table I.3 Some Cities with Poverty Rates Greater than 50% in the Year 2000
City |
Poverty (%) |
Chittagong |
78 |
Cochabamba |
68 |
Davao |
77 |
Dhaka |
54 |
El Alto |
87 |
Freetown |
80 |
Guatemala City |
80 |
Hanoi |
51 |
Kampala |
77 |
Khartoum |
70 |
Kigali |
50 |
Kinshasa |
70 |
Ibadan |
62 |
La Paz |
62 |
Lagos |
66 |
Lilongwe |
66 |
Onitsha |
87 |
S. Cruz de la Sierra |
67 |
Source: Habitat (1998) data, elaborated by the authors.Table I.4 Estimated Growth of Food Consumption in Selected Cities (thousands of tonnes)
City |
2000 |
2010 |
Abidjan |
1 761 |
2 718 |
Belem |
769 |
986 |
Brazzaville |
580 |
842 |
Conakry |
774 |
1 249 |
Ciudad de Guatemala |
297 |
462 |
Esfahan |
1 417 |
2 247 |
Hanoi |
507 |
742 |
Karachi |
2 944 |
4 536 |
Kinshasa |
2 405 |
3 886 |
Lima |
3 015 |
3 760 |
Managua |
309 |
453 |
Maracaibo |
672 |
874 |
Nairobi |
686 |
1 140 |
Port-au-Prince |
441 |
685 |
Santiago de los Caballeros |
366 |
463 |
Yaoundé |
670 |
1 040 |
Source: FAO (2000) data on national food consumption averages, elaborated by the authors.As a result, the overall cost of supplying, distributing and accessing food, often already higher than need be because of numerous constraints, is likely to increase further. With it, the number of food insecure urban households. The challenge of feeding cities consists therefore in facilitating access to food by consumers and creating conditions to ensure the investments needed to increase food production, food processing and distribution capacity, facilities and services under hygienic, healthy and environmentally sound conditions. If this challenge is met adequately, the development of periurban and rural areas will also be promoted.
Meeting a citys food requirements is a formidable task. Food supply and distribution systems (FSDSs) are complex combinations of activities (production, handling, storage, transport, process, package, wholesale, retail, etc.), performed by dynamic agents, enabling cities to meet their food requirements. Small and large, formal and informal, traditional and modern activities exist side by side in a given FSDS.
The factors likely to improve the efficiency of FSDSs and promote change in commercial operating patterns are food habit changes due to the growth of urban socio-economic groups (middle classes) plus the urbanization of lifestyles. The development of wholesale and retail markets, storage and transport facilities, in line with the demographic, economic and spatial development of the urban areas is another factor. The introduction of more modern marketing techniques including packaging, information technology and management skills is also important but requires significant changes in the traditional practices of all FSD agents. Public interventions such as the removal of subsidies, opening of external markets and deregulation can occasionally give rise to monopolistic andmonopsonic situations. Or they can bring into play a multiplicity of informal food traders. The complexity, heterogeneity and dynamism of FSDSs mean that situations and problems can rapidly emerge or change. There is, therefore, a need for an adequate knowledge of local FSDSs and an in-depth evaluation of present and expected conditions and problems. Otherwise, proposed interventions, whether they are launched by central or local authorities, may turn out to be insufficient or inadequate by the time they are implemented, or simply unsustainable.
Table I.5 Estimated Increase in 2010 in Traffic to Selected Cities because of Food Transport
Cities |
10-tonne truck loads |
Abidjan |
124 600 |
Bandung |
58 200 |
Belem |
29 800 |
Bombay |
313 400 |
Dakar |
36 800 |
Guatemala City |
22 900 |
Ho Chi Min |
83 500 |
Lima |
100 100 |
Lagos |
500 000 |
Maracaibo |
27 600 |
Managua |
19 900 |
Port-au-Prince |
32 300 |
Santiago de los Caballeros |
13 100 |
Teheran |
147 900 |
Yangon |
86 900 |
Yaoundé |
48 500 |
Source: FAO (2000) data on national food consumption averages, elaborated by the authors. Base year: 2000.How can a well identified problem be linked with numerous possible solutions? What will be the "best" solution? How can selected solutions be framed in the context of development programmes spanning urban, periurban and rural areas? This guide is designed for use by researchers and professionals in the developing countries and countries in transition for the analysis of FSDSs and the formulation of development policies, strategies and programmes. It proposes an interdisciplinary approach based on the pipeline (the French "filière") and system concepts. A system approach is required because the food security of urban populations is the outcome of a long series of interrelated decisions, events, factors, etc., which affect the various subsystems of production, processing, marketing, distribution and consumption. Interventions in any subsystem are likely to have multiple repercussions.
The tools presented in this guide seek to help identify those external and internal factors that influence FSDSs. This analysis makes it easier to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various FSDS components in relation to their specific functions. The analysis of constraints affecting FSDSs requires an interdisciplinary approach. This is the objective of the "case study" that cities need to undertake drawing upon agricultural economics, development economics, geography, urban planning, agriculture, marketing, law, etc., discussed in Annex 1. Any precise point of view must meet general criteria to formulate a coordinated and coherent framework of knowledge. The problem/approach grid, proposed in this guide, is the tool which connects the various elements of the analysis with the required disciplines.
FSDS case studies cover the following aspects: the urban, socio-economic and institutional context; present-day urban food demand and FSDSs; and the city and its FSDS in the future. Case studies are undertaken in two phases. The aim of phase 1 (pre-case study) is to describe FSDSs to a city in their entirety and to pinpoint the major present and expected problems. This phase includes bibliographic research, collecting and analysing available information, preliminary interviews and observations. Phase 1 may commence by categorizing past and expected urban physical expansion as well as the main food supply areas, food transport flows and urban markets using maps. The process gradually expands to cover institutional responsibilities as well as past, present and planned interventions. Although it may not be possible to cover all the topics, the description and analysis should suffice to show the complexity and interrelationships between the various FSDS elements. Major constraints are identified as well as problems requiring immediate solutions. Problems and constraints will not simply be listed, but will be presented as sets interconnected at critical points. Key areas for further investigation will be identified.
During phase 2 (the case study proper), issues identified in phase 1 for further analysis will be investigated and the required sustainable interventions identified. There will be an analysis of FSDS efficiency and dynamism from a spatial, structural and temporal perspective. Possible interventions will be analysed to select suitable ones. FSD policies, strategies and programmes will then be formulated with clearly defined institutional responsibilities.
Chapter 1 covers the key elements of FSDSs. Chapter 2 covers the case study including the preparation of the terms of reference (TORs), the arrangement of the study into several phases and the internal and external reviews of the results. Chapter 3 deals with the formulation of urban FSD policies, strategies and programmes. Annex 1 discusses some methodological approaches followed in previous case studies. Annex 2 contains general TORs of a case study to be adapted to local conditions. Annex 3 helps identify the necessary human, logistic and financial resources and prepare an activity programme. Annexes 4, 5 and 6 provide details and examples of various technical issues discussed in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 respectively. A bibliography for further reading and related Web sites are listed in Annex 7.
Table I.6 City of Zanzibar: Daily Consumption Projections (tonnes/day)
Year |
Fruits and Vegetables |
Meat |
Poultry |
Fish |
Pessimistic scenario: annual population growth 3.6% |
||||
1995 |
92.21 |
1.25 |
0.53 |
12.07 |
2000 |
110.04 |
1.49 |
0.63 |
14.41 |
2005 |
131.33 |
1.77 |
0.75 |
17.20 |
Optimistic scenario: annual 3.6% population growth plus annual
2% increase in income |
||||
1995 |
99.14 |
1.51 |
0.63 |
12.70 |
2000 |
140.50 |
2.64 |
1.07 |
17.16 |
2005 |
196.90 |
4.26 |
1.69 |
23.13 |
Source: UNCDF, Project N° URT/93/C06(Renovation of Old Stone Town Market in Zanzibar, 1994).