Programme 2.2.3: Food and Agricultural Monitoring,
Assessments and Outlooks

Code

Type

Title

A1

A2

A3

B1

B2

C1

C2

D1

D2

E1

E2

E3

223A2

TP

Global Food and Agricultural Perspective Studies

223P2

CP

The State of Food and Agriculture

223P3

CP

Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security

223P4

CP

Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments

223P5

CP

Market Assessments of Tropical, Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and Impact on Food Security

223P6

CP

Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture

223S1

TS

Technical Support Services to Member Nations and the Field Programme

Legend

Greater than zero, less than US$ 1.5 million

US$ 1.5 million to 3 million

US$ 3 million to 5 million

More than US$ 5 million

438. This programme embodies the continued priority given to meeting Members' needs for regular and timely flows of information on, and assessments of food supply/demand situations, the outlook for agricultural commodities and for strategic analyses and perspectives on longer-term food and agriculture development and food security at national, regional and global levels. It addresses cross-cutting issues having national and international policy implications, particularly the impact which agricultural commodity export earnings have on food security at national and household levels. The central importance of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) is underlined by the increasing number of requests from countries for independent, authoritative assessments of their crop production and food supply situation which, in collaboration with WFP⁹⁸, are translated into food aid requirements, where appropriate. Substantially increased resources are proposed for GIEWS so that it can respond to this volume of requests. The annual report, State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA), will have a new format designed to reach a wider audience. A new, long-term perspective study, Agriculture Towards 20XX (AT 20XX), will be published towards the end of the MTP period, with separate publications, on thematic topics of global significance, issued intermittently. The corresponding entity (hitherto 223A1) has a new code (223A2) with a more accurate title, Global Food and Agricultural Perspective Studies. The title of 223P4, Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments, is also now more accurate.

439. The Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on food and agriculture, was the entity principally affected by lower resource levels in 2002-03, which are insufficient to meet requests for missions by Members, a shortfall which is being addressed as mentioned above, by the indicated projections for 2004-09.

Rationale

440. Development problem to be addressed: identification of the upcoming bottlenecks and problems associated with expected long-term developments in world food, nutrition, agriculture and natural resource use, which require corrective agricultural policies.

441. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: policies and plans need to be based on better informed decisions, which in turn need to rely on accurate forecasts of major problems and trends.

442. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: FAO will provide views on all major long-term global food, nutrition, agriculture and natural resource issues. Hence, producers and consumers in general will benefit from policy decisions and development plans based on more analytic information and informed judgement.

Objective(s)

443. Key decision makers at national and international levels will be more aware of long-term developments, constraints and opportunities in world food, nutrition and agriculture, and will be able to make more informed policy and programmatic choices, as a result.

Indicator(s)

1. Examples of public or parliamentary debates, public awareness campaigns, programmes or policies that were influenced by the analysis and assessment from AT 20XX material.

Major Output(s)

1. Analytical framework and database.
2. AT 20XX all-in-one report and intermediate papers.
3. Contributions to studies undertaken by UN and non-UN organizations.

Rationale

444. Development problem to be addressed: in today's fast-paced and increasingly globalised world, trends and constraints affecting agriculture ought to be identified as they emerge, so they can be addressed through collaborative arrangements or local interventions.

445. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: the prime purpose of the SOFA documents is to enhance awareness of agricultural problems and opportunities by policy makers and opinion leaders, thus leading to more appropriate policies and international cooperation aimed at solving specific issues.

446. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: general public and the international community are expected to benefit from more appropriate and timely policy making and/or international cooperation in addressing priority issues in food and agriculture.

Objective(s)

447. Decision makers can make improved policy or planning decisions based on enhanced awareness and understanding of global or major trends, constraints and opportunities in agricultural development.

Indicator(s)

1. Evidence of increased awareness of issues highlighted in SOFA, especially among decision makers and opinion leaders, e.g. articles or citations in specialised and generalist media, or public debates.

Major Output(s)

1. Review of situation, trends, policies and issues in food and agriculture at the global and regional levels.

Rationale

448. Development problem to be addressed: there is a lack of readily available, comprehensive, consistent and unbiased data, information and assessments related to the effects of emerging commodity policies and global market developments for basic foodstuffs, especially dealing with developing countries, that would facilitate planning and adaptation to changing market conditions.

449. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: the food and agricultural commodity market will function more effectively as a result of better information and analysis to be developed under this entity. Decision making of the key market agents at national and international levels would also be facilitated.

450. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: the general public, consumers and producers would benefit from enhanced functioning of food and agricultural commodity markets at national and international levels.

Objective(s)

451. The key actors in food and agricultural commodity market will be able to make better decisions in adapting to changing market conditions. In particular, decision makers in governments will promote appropriate programmes or policies aimed at enabling the private sector to seize emerging commodity market opportunities.

Indicator(s)

1. Estimated number of private sector operatives reached through presentations in trade association fora and other means of dissemination.
2. Examples of programmes or policies drafted or adopted, and quoting FAO's basic food commodities outlooks.

Major Output(s)

1. Integrated databases and analytical/modelling tools for basic foodstuffs.
2. Publications on market situation and short-term outlook for basic foodstuffs.
3. Reports on global indicators of food security reflecting developments in trade and markets of basic food commodities.
4. Commodity studies and medium-term projections for basic foodstuffs.
5. Exchange of commodity information on basic foodstuffs through electronic means and networking.

Rationale

452. Development problem to be addressed: governments, other national and international actors need to make appropriate, effective decisions based on reliable analyses of current global market developments and medium-term prospects for agricultural commodities, as well as analyses of cross-cutting issues.

453. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: the implementation of policies, strategies and plans for trade, commodity development and food security would be assisted by FAO's analysis of current developments and future prospects in global commodity markets.

454. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: producers, industries, traders and consumers will benefit from informed decisions regarding trade, commodity development strategies and food security planning.

Objective(s)

455. Countries adjust their policies, strategies and plans to seize trade-related opportunities, based on increased awareness of current developments and future prospects in global commodity markets.

Indicator(s)

1. Number of countries that adjusted their policies, strategies and plans for trade and community development, based on projections and global market assessments from the entity.

Major Output(s)

1. Commodity Market Review and analytical studies on market developments and trends.
2. Analytical studies on commodity outlook and projections.

Rationale

456. Development problem to be addressed: there is a need for improved planning and adaptation to changing market conditions for tropical, horticultural and raw material commodities so as to maximise returns from trade in these commodities, to improve market efficiency and to enhance food security.

457. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: trade in these agricultural commodities has a significant impact on the growth of the agricultural sector and hence on incomes, employment and food security. Regular, comprehensive and unbiased information to be provided under this entity will facilitate decision making and enhance market efficiency, which in turn will lead to superior resource allocation and maximisation of income and food security benefits from commodity trade.

458. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: producers, traders and other national and international market participants will benefit from more effective participation in these commodity markets.

Objective(s)

459. Enhanced market efficiency and improved participation in commodity markets by developing countries, through better informed policies and decision making.

Indicator(s)

1. Evidence of marketing or policy decisions that were influenced by information provided under this entity.

Major Output(s)

1. Publications on market situation and short-term outlook for raw materials, tropical and horticultural products.
2. Commodity studies and medium-term projections for raw materials, tropical and horticultural products.
3. Electronic exchange of commodity information and networking.
4. Integrated databases and analytical/modelling tools for raw materials, tropical and horticultural products.
5. Reports on food security and export earnings from raw materials, tropical and horticultural products.

Rationale

460. Development problem to be addressed: natural and man-made disasters may cause large-scale food insecurity or even famines. There is a need for early warning systems providing timely and accurate information on volatile food security situations, so as to prompt appropriate and coordinated relief operations before a crisis emerges.

461. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: established on the recommendation of the World Food Conference in 1974 in the wake of the 1972-73 food crisis, the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) plays a unique role in providing information on a timely and accurate basis, on the impact on food security of natural and man-made disasters triggering relief operations and therefore helping the affected populations and communities to access food and other relief assistance.

462. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: populations affected by natural and man-made disasters and in need of food assistance.

Objective(s)

463. Enable the provision of relief assistance to people affected by natural and man-made disasters in time to prevent loss of life or minimise human suffering.

Indicator(s)

1. Critical incidents when GIEWS forecasted a crisis and triggered relief operations early enough to effectively alleviate the crisis.

Major Output(s)

1. Special alerts.
2. Crop and food supply assessment mission reports.
3. Food Situation and Outlook reports.
4. Emergency operations for joint approval by the FAO Director-General and the WFP Executive Director.
5. Early warning software, database and Internet systems and the dissemination of regular reports, special alerts and food security data.

464. Under this entity, it is envisaged to enhance the provision of technical support services, while continuing to make contributions to servicing of the Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) and its subsidiary Inter-governmental Commodity Groups (IGGs).

Programme 2.2.4: Agriculture, Food Security and Trade Policy

Code

Type

Title

A1

A2

A3

B1

B2

C1

C2

D1

D2

E1

E2

E3

224A2

TP

Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations

224P1

CP

Agricultural Adjustment and Policy Reforms

224P2

CP

Agriculture, Poverty Alleviation, Rural Development and Food Security: Analysis of Linkages

224P3

CP

Economics of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability

224P4

CP

Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues

224P5

CP

Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

224S1

TS

Technical Support Services to Member Nations and the Field Programme

Legend

Greater than zero, less than US$ 1.5 million

US$ 1.5 million to 3 million

US$ 3 million to 5 million

More than US$ 5 million

465. With two entities shifted to the new Programme 2.2.0, Programme 2.2.4 has now a smaller number of components entities (seven). Various changes in the titles of these remaining entities have been made to better reflect the scope of work. Implementation of the programme is shared between ESA⁹⁹ and ESC¹⁰⁰ Divisions. Priority is given to analytical work for assessing the impact of policies on agriculture and food security, as well as on issues related to resource mobilisation for agriculture and rural development. Analyses of current and emerging issues in agricultural and rural development, coupled with comparative analyses of food security and agricultural development experiences, aim at informing policy assistance and advice, which is elaborated in collaboration with TCA¹⁰¹. The programme will support FAO's contributions to various environmental conventions and agreements (224P3). Given the increasingly complex and rapidly changing international trade environment, the analysis of trade-related policies and strengthening of national capacities, particularly of developing countries, to participate fully in the new round of WTO¹⁰² multilateral trade negotiations as well informed and equal partners remain important concerns, and resources are provided for this in the 2004-2009 projections.

Rationale

466. Development problem to be addressed: many developing countries lack the capacity to analyse issues on the multilateral trade negotiation agenda relating to agriculture, and feel that they do not participate effectively and as equal partners in global or regional trade negotiations.

467. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: this entity will improve the capacity of countries to negotiate effectively the terms and conditions of multilateral trade agreements and will help them defend and protect the interests of their domestic producers, consumers and industries.

468. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: the producers, industries and consumers, especially in developing countries, should be able to access international markets on fairer terms and reap increased benefits from international agricultural trade.

Objective(s)

469. Countries, especially developing countries, are able to participate effectively in trade negotiations affecting the international regulatory framework for agriculture.

Indicator(s)

1. Evidence of multilateral trade agreements taking developing countries' interests into greater account, such as critical provisions in trade agreements that reflect developing countries' perspective.

Major Output(s)

1. Analyses and information regarding multilateral trade issues under negotiation.
2. Follow-up assistance in implementing multilateral trade agreements.
3. Strengthening capacities at the national and sub-regional levels to participate effectively in trade negotiations.

Rationale

470. Development problem to be addressed: a fundamental reason for the slow progress in reducing food insecurity and poverty is that insufficient attention is paid to agriculture of developing countries, both in terms of an enabling policy framework and resource mobilisation for the development of the sector. Developing countries need an improved policy framework for agricultural development, one that would mobilise public resources, be conducive to private initiative and investment, and take into account the needs of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups.

471. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: the adoption and implementation of an appropriate policy framework in line with FAO's recommendations will lead to more balanced and dynamic agricultural and rural development, with the participation of the rural poor.

472. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: the poor and under-nourished in developing countries, especially those who derive their livelihoods directly or indirectly from the agricultural sector, will benefit from more balanced and self-sustaining agricultural and rural development.

Objective(s)

473. Policy makers and international organizations have increased awareness of the need to revise agricultural policies, build their capacity to design, adjust and evaluate policies of relevance to agriculture and rural development, and use this capacity to negotiate and implement enabling policy frameworks for agriculture development.

Indicator(s)

1. Examples of debates relayed in specialised or generalist media on issues addressed by this entity (e.g. impact of structural adjustments and policy reforms on agriculture), and making explicit reference to FAO's approaches.

Major Output(s)

1. Analysis of policy trends and agriculture performance in selected countries.
2. Publications on current and emerging issues in economic analysis and policy research.
3. Support to agricultural adjustment and policy reform.
4. Impact assessment of macro and agricultural policies on food security in varying socio-economic contexts.

Rationale

474. Development problem to be addressed: the failure of development strategies and programmes to reduce food insecurity at the rate required to meet the WFS targets ultimately stems from inadequate understanding of: the causes of food insecurity; the two-way link between food insecurity and poverty; the rural nature of poverty and food insecurity; and the impact that growth in agriculture and rural off-farm activities can have on poverty and food insecurity. Understanding the relationship between food security, poverty, and agricultural and rural development is essential for designing the appropriate mix of direct interventions and long-term growth policies which will bring about more rapid reduction in poverty and hunger.

475. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: the aim of this entity is precisely to foster clearer understanding of the above issues. Implementation of better policies by countries, aiming at poverty reduction and food security, supported by international agencies and donors, will lead to more effective development actions at national and local levels in reducing poverty and food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable groups.

476. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: under-nourished, food insecure and poor people in developing countries, particularly in rural areas, will ultimately benefit from faster reduction than achieved so far in the extent of hunger and poverty.

Objective(s)

477. Strengthened awareness among decision makers at national and international levels about the importance of reversing declining resource flows to agricultural and rural development and improving the policy environment in order to fight hunger and poverty.

Indicator(s)

1. Examples of debates relayed in specialised or generalist media on issues addressed by this entity (economic cost of hunger, roles of agriculture in poverty alleviation) and making explicit reference to FAO's positions on these issues.

Major Output(s)

1. Comparative socio-economic analysis and policy implications of the roles of agriculture in developing countries for equitable development.
2. Contribution of agriculture and farm-off-farm linkages to poverty alleviation.
3. Assessment of economic costs of hunger.
4. Design and impact evaluation of direct assistance programmes.
5. Studies on risk coping, risk management, savings and rural livelihoods.
6. Analytical studies on food security policies, practices and options.
7. Methods and case studies for the evaluation of the impact of major programmes and strategies on food security.

Rationale

478. Development problem to be addressed: great concerns have been expressed about the environmental sustainability of agricultural activities. Environmental management is critical to improving agricultural productivity in a sustainable manner, particularly amongst poor populations, but this needs to be fostered through appropriate policy measures based on scientific understanding of practical issues and needs faced by the producers.

479. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: appropriate knowledge-based and environmentally-friendly policies and programmes, as supported by work under this entity, will provide incentives and enabling measures for end beneficiaries to realise more sustainable management of natural resources and the environment.

480. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: agricultural producers, especially those in marginal areas or in areas where environmental degradation is at high risk of causing negative impacts on agricultural productivity and human welfare, will benefit from more sustainable management of important natural resources.

Objective(s)

481. Decision makers, increasingly aware of the economics of environmental degradation, propose, adopt and implement agricultural policies and programmes taking environmental costs into account; supporting the implementation of multilateral environmental agreements and conventions.

Indicator(s)

1. Number and/or examples of countries whose policies and programmes were adjusted using the tools and methods advocated by the entity.
2. Donors, multilateral agencies and NGOs routinely using the entity tools and analyses in their project documents and policy analyses, and their feedback on the quality and usefulness.

Major Output(s)

1. Methods for valuation of environmental costs and benefits.
2. Support to implementation of multilateral environmental agreements.

Rationale

482. Development problem to be addressed: developing countries do not contribute to, and benefit enough from international trade and globalisation, in part because their exports are composed primarily of raw agricultural products with little value added. There is a need for developing countries to achieve optimal benefits from trade by strengthening their capacity to market processed and semi-processed goods, and participate in fair and efficient international markets.

483. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: commodity trade enhances development, eases debt servicing burdens and improves food security. Improved understanding of factors affecting commodity trade and analyses of emerging issues impacting on trade, should provide a basis for improved, more cooperative trade policies, greater access to international markets by developing countries, and a fairer share of trade benefits accruing to same.

484. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: national governments and market participants, especially those of developing countries, will benefit from increased earnings, access to technologies and management skills, as well as greater choice in consumption through fair international trade.

Objective(s)

485. The international trading system becomes better accepted by all countries as a fair and efficient system, and developing countries improve their capacity in maximising the benefits from trade in processed and semi-processed food and agricultural commodities.

Indicator(s)

1. List of developing countries' initiatives in support of exports of processed and semi-processed agricultural goods, and using analyses from this entity.
2. Evidence of consensus building and fairer regional or international trade in processed and semi-processed commodities, e.g. examples of negotiations and agreements taking into greater account interests of developing countries.

Major Output(s)

1. Analytical studies of trade issues of agricultural commodities.
2. Analyses of the impact of trade and commodity market developments on food security.
3. Analysis of the effect of new technologies and scientific developments on the trade of agricultural commodities.
4. Support to Members on regional trade issues and arrangements.
5. Facilitation of consensus building on commodity and trade issues.

Rationale

486. Development problem to be addressed: there are serious weaknesses in the competitiveness of developing country exports of agricultural commodities and, hence, a need to identify and exploit product and market development opportunities.

487. Proposed contribution to problem resolution: the entity responds to the need to enhance capacity of developing countries in formulating and executing effective commodity trade strategies and programmes to support private sector competitiveness will facilitate trade-led economic growth and improved food security.

488. Intended end beneficiaries and benefits: national governments, market participants and producers of developing countries will benefit from greater export opportunities.

Objective(s)

489. More effective national commodity and trade development strategies; enhanced capacity to generate individual commodity and trade development projects aimed at improved competitiveness and exploitation of market opportunities.

Indicator(s)

1. Number of developing countries whose strategies for commodity trade were reformed in part thanks to the work of this entity.
2. Number of projects at national level supported by the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC) or other donors, with input from this entity, and examples of achievements.

Major Output(s)

1. National commodity and trade strategies.
2. Commodity development programmes in collaboration with funding bodies, including the CFC.

490. This entity, which now deals only with technical support services, is somewhat reduced in view of the transfer of servicing of the CFS to 220S1.

⁹⁸ World Food Programme

⁹⁹ Agriculture and Economic Development Analysis Division

¹⁰⁰ Commodities and Trade Division

¹⁰¹ Policy Assistance Division

¹⁰² World Trade Organization