 |
 |
 |
Average |
2000/01 |
2001/02 |
2002/031/ |
|
1. Ratio of Five Major Grain Exporters 2/ 3/ |
||||
Supplies to Requirements |
1.16 |
1.20 |
1.19 |
1.13 |
2. Closing Stocks as a percentage of |
||||
Total Disappearance of Major |
||||
Cereal Exporters |
||||
Wheat 3/ |
18.2 |
22.3 |
20.9 |
15.7 |
Coarse Grains 3/ |
14.5 |
17.1 |
16.4 |
11.1 |
Rice 4/ |
64.3 |
61.4 |
54.8 |
46.5 |
Total |
32.3 |
33.6 |
30.7 |
24.5 |
|
Annual Trend Growth Rate |
Percentage Change from Previous Year |
|||
| 1992-2001 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3. Changes in Cereal Production in |
3.49 |
-6.00 |
5.55 |
-0.81 |
China, India and CIS Republics |
||||
4. Changes in Cereal Production |
0.99 |
-4.97 |
0.62 |
-1.09 |
in the LIFD Countries (LIFDC) |
||||
5. Changes in Cereal Production in |
1.87 |
1.22 |
3.21 |
1.18 |
LIFDCs less China and India |
||||
| Percentage |
Change from Previous Year |
|||
2000/01 |
2001/02 |
2002/03 |
||
6. Export Price Movements 5/ |
Wheat (July/June)6/ |
14.3 |
-1.2 |
35.2 |
Maize (July/June)6/ |
-5.0 |
4.8 |
19.1 |
|
Rice (Jan./Dec.) 7/ |
-25.5 |
-4.9 |
11.2 |
|
| Source: FAO | ||||
| 1/ Forecast 2/ Includes Wheat and Coarse Grains. It is the ratio of the sum of their supplies (production, imports and opening stocks) to requirement (i.e. the sum of their domestic utilization plus exports). 3/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, EC and the United States. 4/ China, Pakistan, Thailand, United States and Viet Nam. 5/ Wheat: U.S. no.2 Hard Winter; Maize: U.S. no.2 Yellow; Rice: Thai Broken (A1 Super). 6/ For 2002/03 wheat and maize prices, seven months averages only (July/January). Changes are calculated by comparing the first seven months of the season with the corresponding period in 2001/02. 7/ Rice prices are based on the calendar year of the first year shown. |
||||
Cereals |
Wheat |
Coarse Grains |
Rice |
|||||
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | ||||||||
1980/81 |
42.3 |
48.1 |
37.1 |
47.3 |
||||
1981/82 |
43.5 |
47.5 |
40.0 |
46.4 |
||||
1982/83 |
45.0 |
48.1 |
43.7 |
43.5 |
||||
1983/84 |
39.5 |
48.5 |
32.0 |
44.0 |
||||
1984/85 |
42.2 |
51.4 |
35.1 |
45.8 |
||||
1985/86 |
45.5 |
50.4 |
42.3 |
45.5 |
||||
1986/87 |
46.7 |
51.4 |
44.6 |
44.6 |
||||
1987/88 |
43.6 |
47.3 |
42.2 |
40.9 |
||||
1988/89 |
36.9 |
41.6 |
32.6 |
40.4 |
||||
1989/90 |
35.9 |
39.7 |
30.4 |
43.0 |
||||
1990/91 |
38.5 |
44.9 |
31.7 |
44.5 |
||||
1991/92 |
37.7 |
44.8 |
30.5 |
43.7 |
||||
1992/93 |
39.7 |
46.4 |
33.7 |
43.6 |
||||
1993/94 |
36.4 |
46.8 |
27.7 |
41.8 |
||||
1994/95 |
35.0 |
40.9 |
29.2 |
39.5 |
||||
1995/96 |
31.1 |
37.8 |
23.7 |
38.4 |
||||
1996/97 |
33.2 |
38.6 |
26.8 |
39.9 |
||||
1997/98 |
35.2 |
42.8 |
28.4 |
39.5 |
||||
1998/99 |
36.1 |
43.6 |
29.7 |
39.3 |
||||
1999/00 |
35.5 |
42.3 |
28.5 |
41.4 |
||||
2000/01 |
32.3 |
39.5 |
24.4 |
39.6 |
||||
2001/02 |
29.5 |
35.2 |
22.8 |
35.8 |
||||
2002/03 1/ |
23.5 |
27.3 |
18.4 |
29.1 |
||||
|
Source: FAO |
||||||||
|
1996-97 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001* |
2002* |
|
Developing Countries |
|
|
|||||
Total |
71.5 |
68.2 |
65.8 |
67 |
64.3 |
68.4 |
|
Cereals |
30.7 |
26.9 |
25.4 |
26.4 |
24.7 |
26.4 |
|
Meat |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
8.7 |
8.2 |
8.2 |
|
Dairy |
8.1 |
7.6 |
7.5 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
7.6 |
|
Sugar |
6 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
|
Oils, fats & oilseeds |
19.4 |
21.1 |
20.3 |
19.6 |
18.3 |
21.4 |
|
LIFDCs |
|
|
|||||
Total |
33.7 |
33.5 |
33.2 |
33.1 |
31.3 |
34.1 |
|
Cereals |
14.2 |
12.9 |
12.1 |
12 |
11.4 |
12.4 |
|
Meat |
3.1 |
3 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3 |
|
Dairy |
3 |
2.8 |
3 |
3.1 |
3 |
2.9 |
|
Sugar |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
|
Oils, fats & oilseeds |
10.2 |
11.5 |
11.6 |
11.7 |
11 |
13.2 |
|
* Import values for 2001 and 2002 are preliminary estimates, derived on the basis of changes in trade volumes and representative world market prices. Trade data include food aid flows, as well as re-exports, and for 1996-2000 are from FAOSTAT. Import values are c.i.f. |
|||||||
Current Estimate |
Forecast |
||||
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
||
World Trade (Volume) |
-0.5 |
2.9 |
7 |
8 |
|
World GDP (growth) |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
|
Developing countries |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
|
East Asia and Pacific |
5.5 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
|
Europe and Central Asia |
2.3 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
|
Transition countries |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
|
Latin America & the Caribbean |
0.4 |
-1.1 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
|
excluding Argentina |
1.2 |
0.7 |
1.9 |
3.6 |
|
Middle East and North Africa |
3.2 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
|
South Asia |
4.4 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
|
Sub-Saharan Africa |
2.9 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
|
High-income countries |
0.7 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
|
OECD countries |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
|
United States |
0.3 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
|
Japan |
-0.3 |
0 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
|
Euro Area |
1.5 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
|
Non-OECD countries |
-0.7 |
2.3 |
3.7 |
5.3 |
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|