5

SOUTH ASIA

The region and its farming systems

The region¹⁰ (see Map) contains a population of 1344m people - more than one quarter of the population of the developing world - of whom 751m can be classed as agricultural. It has a greater number of undernourished and poor than any other developing region and more than two-thirds of these reside in rural areas. Despite improvements in national food security over the last three decades, around 284m people are still undernourished, while 43 percent of the world population living in dollar poverty are located here. The rural population density - at 1.89 persons/ha - is also higher than in any other developing region, and the concentration of most of the population on less than half of the land area, has resulted in severe pressure on natural resources. Nineteen percent is densely populated, humid or moist subhumid lowland containing the bulk (43 percent) of the region's people; while 29 percent is dry subhumid and still heavily populated, as it contains 33 percent of the population. The remaining 32 percent is semiarid and arid lowland supporting only 19 percent of the region's inhabitants.

The eleven farming systems defined within the region are summarized in Table 5.1 (see Map for their location).

The four most important of these systems from the perspective of population, extent of poverty and potential for growth and poverty reduction are briefly described below.

Rice Farming System. This is dominated by intensive wetland rice cultivation in fragmented plots, with or without irrigation. Total area is 36m ha and cultivated area is 22m ha, of which 10m ha (43 percent) are irrigated. Agricultural population is 263m. The system is concentrated in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India, and it contains 51m bovines and a considerable number of small ruminants. Poor farmers operate extremely small areas, and often rely on off-farm income for survival. Poverty is extensive and also quite severe.

Rice-Wheat Farming System. This system is characterized by a summer paddy crop followed by an irrigated winter wheat crop (and sometimes also a short spring vegetable crop) and forms a broad swathe from Northern Pakistan through the Indo-Gangetic plain to Northwest Bangladesh. Total area is 97m ha with an estimated 62m under cultivation, of which around 78 percent is irrigated. Within this system, 254m people are classified as agricultural. There is a significant level of crop-livestock integration, with an estimated 119m bovines and 73m small ruminants. Poverty is extensive and also quite severe.

Highland Mixed Farming System. This mixed crop-livestock farming system, generally intermediate between the rice-wheat plains of the lowlands and the sparsely populated high mountain areas above, extends along the length of the Himalayan range, as well as in pockets in Afghanistan, Southern India and Sri Lanka. Major products include cereals, legumes, vegetables, fodder trees, orchards and livestock. Total area is 65m ha with an estimated 19m ha under cultivation, of which around 14 percent is irrigated. Nearly 53m people are classified as agricultural, and there are about 45m bovines and 66m small ruminants. Poverty is aggravated by remoteness and the lack of social services, and is rated between moderate and extensive.

Source: FAO data and expert knowledge.

Rainfed Mixed Farming System. This rainfed cropping and livestock farming system occupies the largest area within the sub-continent and is confined almost entirely to India. Total system area is 147m ha with an estimated 87m ha under cultivation, of which around 16 percent are irrigated. Rice and some wheat are grown, as well as pearl millet and sorghum, a variety of pulses and oilseeds, sugarcane, vegetables and fruit. Of the human population a total of 226m are classified as agricultural. There are an estimated 126m bovines and 64m small ruminants. Vulnerability stems from the substantial climatic and economic variability. Poverty is extensive and its severity increases markedly after droughts.

Key region-wide trends

The region's 1999 population of about 1344m is expected to reach 1920m by 2030, and the proportion living in cities will rise to 53 percent. The proportion in dollar poverty is projected to decline from 40 percent to approximately 20 percent. Area cultivated is expected to show only a marginal increase while irrigated land area will continue to grow slowly. Rice yields have increased by an average of almost 2 percent per annum over the last 30 years. Wheat production increased by more than 250 percent to almost 100m tons in 2000 and the growth rate of both crops is expected to be maintained in the period to 2030. Use of inorganic fertilizers has expanded rapidly in recent decades; from 3 kg of plant nutrients per ha in 1970 to 79 kg/ha in the mid-1990s, and is expected to continue to increase, albeit more slowly. With higher incomes, meat consumption (particularly poultry meat and eggs, sheep and goat meat) and demand for dairy products are expected to continue their significant expansion. However, the large ruminant population is likely to stabilize, or even decline, as tractors replace both draught buffalo and oxen.

Strategic priorities for South Asia

Given their importance for poverty reduction across many different systems, strong support will be needed both for small farm diversification and for growth in employment opportunities in the off-farm rural economy. Measures that assist farm households to leave agriculture will be an important secondary priority, and would need to include improved rural education and vocational skills training. There is also some potential for poverty reduction by means of intensification of existing production patterns, largely through improved water management and adoption of improved technologies. Because of the pressure on land, there is less opportunity than elsewhere for poverty reduction through the expansion of the farms of poor small farmers. Thus, sustainable utilization of the land and water resource base represents a key strategic priority.

Decentralization and the strengthened perform-ance of local institutions will be essential for the development of most farming systems. Investments in roads and educational services should be an essential ingredient of any strategy for accelerating agricultural production and rural development. Priority should also be given to the integration of better on-farm nutrient management (INM) - combining inorganic and organic nutrient sources - and to economic incentives for balanced fertilizer use. Conservation agriculture should be introduced; including the greater integration of livestock and trees into the system.

Significant improvement in water management will only be possible if functioning markets for water are established and realistic water charges are introduced. A double benefit, to growth and to poverty reduction, could result from an overhaul of obsolete land tenure policies and regulations. Considerable investment is needed in local commodity markets and price information systems, especially in the more remote farming systems, as well as further development of rural financial services including micro-finance and linkages to mainstream banking. A high priority for investment in the coming 30 years would be empowering small farmers to access improved information on markets, services and technologies. Increases of human capital are required in order to underpin diversification towards high value skill-intensive enterprises as well as the development of small-scale local rural industry.

Four broad, inter-linked, strategic initiatives are proposed:

Improved water resource management. Improved water management is essential to support the intensification and diversification of production and to reduce resource depletion, for both surface and underground water schemes. Components include: technology; conjunctive use; water charges and other regulatory measures; strengthened water users' associations; and watershed protection.

Strengthened resource user groups. Strengthening resource user groups is one way to redress the extensive land and water degradation in plains and hills, and protect watershed resources. Components include: resource management groups for watershed management in hill and mountain areas; range management groups in pastoral areas; and policies to encourage effective common property resource management.

Improved rural infrastructure. Returns to transport and health investments are high and beneficial to the poor, especially in low potential and highland areas in the region. Components include: roads; drinking water; schools; health facilities; and effective models for private sector participation.

Re-oriented agricultural services. The re-orientation of agricultural research, education, information and extension systems to involve farmers fully will underpin the drives for intensification and enterprise diversification and promote sustainable resource management. Components include: models for joint public-private service provision; pluralistic advisory services; Internet based delivery of service, market and technical information to small farmers; and the incorporation in higher education learning systems of interdisciplinary learning and approaches.

^{10 See Annex for a list of countries included in the region.}