No.5  October 2007  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE (total: 36 countries)

Food Emergencies Update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical Appendix

Note

Statistical Appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
  Average     
2000/01 -     
  2004/05 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat33.626.128.428.725.422.6
Coarse grains19.015.219.118.114.616.3
Rice30.125.423.724.824.824.7
Total cereals25.820.622.922.719.919.9
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters’      
supplies to normal market requirements121117137133116119
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters’ stocks      
to their total disappearance     
Wheat20.417.021.723.315.510.9
Coarse grains15.210.719.018.011.713.2
Rice19.215.913.215.816.515.7
Total cereals18.314.518.019.014.613.3
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1997-2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
4. Changes in world cereal production0.63.49.1-0.9-2.25.3
       
5. Changes in cereal production       
in the LIFDCs1.32.93.15.13.21.0
       
6. Changes in cereal production in       
LIFDCs less China and India3.58.6-0.86.74.3-1.8
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2000/01 -
  2004/05 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
   (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat (July/June)110.821.3-1.1-1.05.225.4
Maize (July/June)100.218.67.1-15.26.444.6
Rice (Jan./Dec.)83.1-3.914.726.7-1.05.8
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to
July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100;
For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. Rice index refers to the first year shown.


Table A2. World cereal stocks1 ( million tonnes)
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
estimate
2008
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 484.9 417.4 466.7 469.2 419.7 420.2
Wheat 202.5 161.2 176.6 178.5 157.6 143.2
held by:      
- main exporters 239.139.055.558.838.327.5
- others163.4122.2121.0119.7119.3115.7
Coarse grains 163.5 151.0 191.2 185.3 155.4 170.0
held by:      
- main exporters255.348.592.891.358.673.5
- others108.2102.598.494.096.996.5
Rice (milled basis) 119.0 105.2 98.9 105.5 106.7 107.0
held by:      
- main exporters221.722.518.922.924.423.7
- others97.382.780.182.582.383.3
Developed countries 145.2 123.5 189.7 191.9 131.2 126.1
Australia5.29.211.115.86.62.3
European Union 333.721.547.745.833.729.8
Canada8.910.314.516.210.89.1
Hungary 41.40.8----
Japan5.44.94.74.84.44.1
Poland 42.92.4----
Romania 52.01.25.05.03.0-
Russian Federation12.57.39.19.38.58.5
South Africa3.83.54.14.12.91.4
Ukraine5.12.94.45.04.43.5
United States45.144.474.771.745.858.4
Developing countries 339.8 293.9 277.0 277.3 288.5 294.0
Asia 306.4 252.3 233.8 234.7 241.9 248.0
China209.4163.3152.4149.7155.2164.4
India39.832.926.725.828.730.5
Indonesia5.76.05.75.15.65.7
Iran (Islamic Republic of)4.43.52.73.13.12.3
Korea, Republic of2.82.92.42.93.12.6
Pakistan2.91.91.83.13.23.5
Philippines2.21.92.22.73.12.6
Syria4.14.24.54.63.32.4
Turkey8.07.26.54.65.34.1
Africa 19.0 21.7 23.4 26.1 32.4 28.9
Algeria2.52.63.64.44.74.9
Egypt3.22.73.14.24.13.3
Ethiopia0.90.40.31.02.93.2
Morocco1.82.94.62.43.61.3
Nigeria2.01.61.21.42.22.2
Tunisia0.61.01.21.41.51.1
Central America 5.6 5.8 6.3 4.6 4.3 4.8
Mexico3.73.94.62.82.63.2
South America 8.4 13.8 13.2 11.7 9.6 12.2
Argentina3.23.82.42.82.13.0
Brazil1.65.86.24.02.74.9
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 to 2007 25 member countries, in 2008 27 member countries.
4 From 2005 included in the EU.
5 In 2008 included in the EU.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.


Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains ( US$/tonne)
  Wheat Maize Sorghum
  US No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord. Prot.
1
US Soft Red
Winter No.2
2
Argentina
Trigo Pan
3
US No.2
Yellow
2
Argentina 3 US No.2
Yellow
2
Period
 
Annual (July/June )      
2003/04161149154115109118
2004/05154138123979099
2005/06175138138104101108
2006/07212176188150145155
Monthly      
2006 – September208165167119114128
2006 – October218196191141135154
2006 – November219192185166172169
2006 – December216190186160162169
2007 – January208176183164161173
2007 – February209175175177165178
2007 – March209168187170160171
2007 – April206171209150144145
2007 – May203180219159147155
2007 – June231205239165156166
2007 – July250223249146141157
2007 – August277254273152157171
2007 – September342323325158169177
1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf.
2 Delivered United States Gulf.
3 Up River f.o.b.
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.


Table A4. Estimated Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries 2006/07 or 2007 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2005/06 or 2006 2006/07 or 2007
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  36 328.3 2 707.5 39 035.8 36 795.4 28 123.2 1 990.9 26 132.3
North Africa  16 347.7 5.3 16 353.0 16 038.0 16 038.0 12.2 16 025.8
EgyptJuly/June12 019.7 5.3 12 025.0 12 120.0 12 120.0 12.2 12 107.8
MoroccoJuly/June4 328.0 0.0 4 328.0 3 918.0 3 918.0 0.0 3 918.0
Eastern Africa  4 154.6 1 684.3 5 838.9 5 158.0 4 256.5 1 190.6 3 065.9
BurundiJan./Dec. 60.1 56.9 117.0 126.0 30.2 30.2 0.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 57.0 0.0 57.0 41.0 6.1 0.0 6.1
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 62.1 9.9 72.0 74.0 35.4 2.9 32.5
EritreaJan./Dec. 176.6 42.0 218.6 296.0 52.7 7.0 45.7
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 9.5 552.1 561.6 369.0 350.0 349.3 0.7
KenyaOct./Sept.1 206.7 230.7 1 437.4 1 156.0 1 156.0 188.2 967.8
RwandaJan./Dec. 167.8 30.8 198.6 192.0 37.9 16.4 21.5
SomaliaAug./July 317.3 102.7 420.0 440.0 440.0 115.2 324.8
SudanNov./Oct.1 227.0 508.8 1 735.8 1 490.0 1 280.7 371.2 909.5
UgandaJan./Dec. 126.7 116.5 243.2 241.0 144.5 69.8 74.7
United Rep.of TanzaniaJune/May 743.8 33.9 777.7 733.0 723.0 40.4 682.6
Southern Africa  3 389.1 456.9 3 846.0 3 073.6 3 073.6 354.6 2 719.0
AngolaApril/March 654.4 32.8 687.2 876.0 876.0 20.7 855.3
LesothoApril/March 193.7 15.6 209.3 191.4 191.4 10.1 181.3
MadagascarApril/March 279.8 34.7 314.5 262.1 262.1 34.3 227.8
MalawiApril/March 287.2 91.3 378.5 224.2 224.2 62.8 161.4
MozambiqueApril/March 945.6 107.0 1 052.6 882.8 882.8 96.6 786.2
SwazilandMay/April 106.5 15.3 121.8 128.0 128.0 5.8 122.2
ZambiaMay/April 167.9 68.3 236.2 83.9 83.9 28.1 55.8
ZimbabweApril/March 754.0 91.9 845.9 425.2 425.2 96.2 329.0
Western Africa  10 887.0 448.7 11 335.7 10 870.3 4 278.6 384.9 3 893.7
Coastal Countries  8 542.7 172.3 8 715.0 8 210.1 2 955.2 100.9 2 854.3
BeninJan./Dec. 96.7 7.2 103.9 115.0 77.5 0.3 77.2
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 492.1 14.71 506.8 1 264.1 500.8 10.4 490.4
GhanaJan./Dec. 812.1 39.7 851.8 825.0 316.1 40.4 275.7
GuineaJan./Dec. 499.7 22.9 522.6 467.0 82.3 4.7 77.6
LiberiaJan./Dec. 205.8 58.8 264.6 265.0 131.2 24.4 106.8
NigeriaJan./Dec.5 080.0 0.05 080.0 4 880.0 1 742.5 0.0 1 742.5
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 260.3 28.7 289.0 299.0 45.9 20.7 25.2
TogoJan./Dec. 96.0 0.3 96.3 95.0 58.9 0.0 58.9
Sahelian Countries  2 344.3 276.4 2 620.7 2 660.2 1 323.4 284.0 1 039.4
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 294.0 26.4 320.4 349.7 60.3 24.5 35.8
Cape VerdeNov./Oct. 54.0 23.8 77.8 80.4 35.2 5.1 30.1
ChadNov./Oct. 68.8 50.4 119.2 127.1 101.9 69.1 32.8
GambiaNov./Oct. 105.7 7.6 113.3 114.7 31.2 6.3 24.9
Guinea BissauNov./Oct. 70.8 4.4 75.2 86.4 11.5 6.5 5.0
MaliNov./Oct. 243.4 27.5 270.9 252.6 98.3 41.2 57.1
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 352.0 59.7 411.7 337.4 161.7 45.9 115.8
NigerNov./Oct. 252.7 62.1 314.8 311.0 79.8 69.9 9.9
SenegalNov./Oct. 902.9 14.5 917.4 1 000.9 743.5 15.5 728.0
Central Africa  1 549.9 112.3 1 662.2 1 655.5 476.5 48.6 427.9
CameroonJan./Dec. 619.3 7.0 626.3 630.0 192.6 0.0 192.6
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 40.6 11.1 51.7 53.5 31.8 18.4 13.4
Congo, Dem.Rep.Jan./Dec. 326.0 4.5 330.5 310.0 51.8 2.8 49.0
Congo, Rep.Jan./Dec. 521.9 88.7 610.6 627.0 187.6 27.4 160.2
Eq. GuineaJan./Dec. 27.5 0.0 27.5 23.0 9.4 0.0 9.4
Sao Tome & PrincipeJan./Dec. 14.6 1.0 15.6 12.0 3.3 0.0 3.3


Table A4b. (continued)
   2005/06 or 2006 2006/07 or 2007
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA   41 633.7 1 312.2 42 945.9 49 350.4 46 684.3 1 115.7 45 568.6
CIS in Asia   2 772.0 186.0 2 958.0 3 479.0 3 479.0 166.0 3 313.0
ArmeniaJuly/June 174.0 3.0 177.0 288.0 288.0 8.0 280.0
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 062.0 6.0 1 068.0 1 385.0 1 385.0 84.0 1 301.0
GeorgiaJuly/June 878.0 15.0 893.0 938.0 938.0 14.0 924.0
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 140.0 30.0 170.0 276.0 276.0 0.0 276.0
TajikistanJuly/June 226.0 132.0 358.0 335.0 335.0 60.0 275.0
TurkmenistanJuly/June 13.0 0.0 13.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 4.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 279.0 0.0 279.0 253.0 253.0 0.0 253.0
Far East   27 157.1 972.1 28 129.2 35 140.4 33 949.4 819.7 33 129.7
BangladeshJuly/June2 648.0 183.0 2 831.0 3 150.0 3 150.0 166.1 2 983.9
BhutanJuly/June 70.7 0.3 71.0 71.0 71.0 0.4 70.6
CambodiaJan./Dec. 37.5 4.4 41.9 40.0 20.9 5.3 15.6
China July/June10 231.0 0.0 10 231.0 8 479.0 8 479.0 0.0 8 479.0
D.P.R. of KoreaApril/March 94.3 533.6 627.9 960.0 483.3 416.6 66.7
IndiaApril/March 721.6 37.0 758.6 6 812.3 6 812.3 35.3 6 777.0
IndonesiaNov./Oct.5 896.4 48.3 5 944.7 8 192.8 8 192.8 32.5 8 160.3
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 18.1 9.5 27.6 27.8 8.3 7.6 0.7
MongoliaOct./Sept. 235.3 29.7 265.0 249.0 211.7 34.3 177.4
NepalJuly/June 130.5 9.7 140.2 240.0 240.0 7.6 232.4
Pakistan May/April 932.1 0.0 932.1 423.7 423.7 19.9 403.8
PhilippinesJuly/June4 901.0 71.0 4 972.0 5 284.8 5 284.8 83.7 5 201.1
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 190.6 45.6 1 236.2 1 150.0 511.6 10.4 501.2
Timor-LesteJuly/June 50.0 0.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 0.0 60.0
Near East   11 704.6 154.1 11 858.7 10 731.0 9 255.9 130.0 9 125.9
AfghanistanJuly/June 433.4 47.6 481.0 740.0 740.0 108.5 631.5
IraqJuly/June5 980.2 28.8 6 009.0 4 430.0 4 430.0 7.4 4 422.6
Syrian Arab Republic July/June2 267.8 7.0 2 274.8 2 736.0 2 736.0 7.4 2 728.6
YemenJan./Dec.3 023.2 70.7 3 093.9 2 825.0 1 349.9 6.7 1 343.2
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 527.6 222.6 1 750.2 1 710.0 1 710.0 135.4 1 574.6
HaitiJuly/June 569.7 80.3 650.0 659.0 659.0 90.7 568.3
HondurasJuly/June 623.8 105.3 729.1 687.0 687.0 26.7 660.3
NicaraguaJuly/June 334.1 37.0 371.1 364.0 364.0 18.0 346.0
SOUTH AMERICA   993.7 17.0 1 010.7 944.4 944.4 30.0 914.4
EcuadorJuly/June 993.7 17.0 1 010.7 944.4 944.4 30.0 914.4
OCEANIA   415.7 0.0 415.7 415.7 156.0 0.0 156.0
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 358.0 0.0 358.0 358.0 154.8 0.0 154.8
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
TongaJan./Dec. 6.4 0.0 6.4 6.4 1.2 0.0 1.2
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EUROPE   1 617.7 1.2 1 618.9 1 611.0 1 611.0 0.0 1 611.0
AlbaniaJuly/June 458.8 1.2 460.0 440.0 440.0 0.0 440.0
BelarusJuly/June 578.0 0.0 578.0 601.0 601.0 0.0 601.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina July/June 580.9 0.0 580.9 570.0 570.0 0.0 570.0
TOTAL   82 516.7 4 260.5 86 777.2 90 826.9 79 228.9 3 272.0 75 956.9
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 575 in 2004), which is in accordance with guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocation of food aid.
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-September 2007.


Table A5. Estimated Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries 2007/08 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2006/07 2007/08
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  19 752.2 522.4 20 274.6 23 411.0 5 620.5 271.5 5 349.0
Northern Africa  16 025.8 12.2 16 038.0 18 951.0 4 674.1 0.0 4 674.1
EgyptJuly/June12 107.8 12.2 12 120.0 12 630.0 3 235.4 0.0 3 235.4
MoroccoJuly/June3 918.0 0.0 3 918.0 6 321.0 1 438.7 0.0 1 438.7
Eastern Africa  1 007.4 155.6 1 163.0 915.0 17.9 16.6 1.3
SomaliaAug./July 324.8 115.2 440.0 480.0 12.9 12.9 0.0
United Rep.of TanzaniaJune/May 682.6 40.4 723.0 435.0 5.0 3.7 1.3
Southern Africa  2 719.0 354.6 3 073.6 3 545.0 928.5 254.9 673.6
AngolaApril/March 855.3 20.7 876.0 780.0 148.3 0.6 147.7
LesothoApril/March 181.3 10.1 191.4 256.0 74.6 3.8 70.8
MadagascarApril/March 227.8 34.3 262.1 284.0 119.8 32.9 86.9
MalawiApril/March 161.4 62.8 224.2 117.0 72.7 35.4 37.3
MozambiqueApril/March 786.2 96.6 882.8 863.0 246.7 93.0 153.7
SwazilandMay/April 122.2 5.8 128.0 173.0 37.9 0.7 37.2
ZambiaMay/April 55.8 28.1 83.9 65.0 9.0 4.4 4.6
Zimbabwe April/March 329.0 96.2 425.2 1 007.0 219.5 84.1 135.4
ASIA  43 463.8 634.8 44 098.6 40 626.4 5 540.4 164.5 5 375.9
CIS in Asia  3 313.0 166.0 3 479.0 2 780.0 227.2 11.6 215.6
ArmeniaJuly/June 280.0 8.0 288.0 271.0 26.8 0.0 26.8
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 301.0 84.0 1 385.0 976.0 104.2 0.0 104.2
GeorgiaJuly/June 924.0 14.0 938.0 767.0 60.4 2.8 57.6
Kyrgyz RepublicJuly/June 276.0 0.0 276.0 165.0 20.3 0.0 20.3
TajikistanJuly/June 275.0 60.0 335.0 301.0 15.5 8.8 6.7
TurkmenistanJuly/June 4.0 0.0 4.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 253.0 0.0 253.0 271.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Far East  32 368.1 345.5 32 713.6 29 876.4 5 985.4 126.7 3 569.1
BangladeshJuly/June2 983.9 166.1 3 150.0 3 750.0 279.7 85.1 194.6
BhutanJuly/June 70.6 0.4 71.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China July/June8 479.0 0.0 8 479.0 9 467.0 195.6 0.0 195.6
IndiaApril/March6 777.0 35.3 6 812.3 3 050.0 3 235.4 19.3 926.5
IndonesiaApril/March8 160.3 32.5 8 192.8 7 341.4 1 689.4 16.5 1 672.9
NepalJuly/June 232.4 7.6 240.0 290.0 2.3 2.3 0.0
Pakistan May/April 403.8 19.9 423.7 921.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
PhilippinesJuly/June5 201.1 83.7 5 284.8 4 926.0 582.9 3.5 579.4
Timor-LesteJuly/June 60.0 0.0 60.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Near East  7 782.7 123.3 7 906.0 7 970.0 1 617.4 26.2 1 591.2
AfghanistanJuly/June 631.5 108.5 740.0 690.0 25.1 25.1 0.0
IraqJuly/June4 422.6 7.4 4 430.0 4 430.0 1 590.0 0.0 1 590.0
SyriaJuly/June2 728.6 7.4 2 736.0 2 850.0 2.3 1.1 1.2
CENTRAL AMERICA  1 574.6 135.4 1 710.0 1 716.0 117.1 117.1 0.0
HaitiJuly/June 568.3 90.7 659.0 696.0 58.7 58.7 0.0
HondurasJuly/June 660.3 26.7 687.0 635.0 24.0 24.0 0.0
NicaraguaJuly/June 346.0 18.0 364.0 385.0 34.4 34.4 0.0
SOUTH AMERICA  914.4 30.0 944.4 1 020.0 8.4 0.0 8.4
EcuadorJuly/June 914.4 30.0 944.4 1 020.0 8.4 0.0 8.4
EUROPE   1 611.0 0.0 1 611.0 1 650.0 79.6 0.0 79.6
AlbaniaJuly/June 440.0 0.0 440.0 440.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BelarusJuly/June 601.0 0.0 601.0 640.0 4.6 0.0 4.6
Bosnia-Herzegovina July/June 570.0 0.0 570.0 570.0 75.0 0.0 75.0
TOTAL  67 316.0 1 322.6 68 638.6 68 423.4 11 366.0 553.1 10 812.9
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 575 in 2004), which is in accordance with guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocation of food aid.
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-September 2007.

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