No.4  November 2009  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE (total: 31 countries)

Food emergencies update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

Special feature: Domestic food prices in developing countries
remain high

Special feature: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Special feature: how China stabilized grain prices during the recent globalfood price crisis

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical Appendix

Note

Statistical Appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
  Average     
2002/03 -     
  2006/07 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat28.929.325.422.125.927.8
Coarse grains16.918.115.315.818.818.2
Rice25.324.523.924.827.527.0
Total cereals22.322.820.119.522.722.8
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters' supplies to normal market requirements       
  123133116119124120
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters' stocks to their total disappearance      
      
Wheat20.923.115.911.817.520.4
Coarse grains15.217.712.012.014.413.8
Rice17.416.115.417.520.614.5
Total cereals17.819.014.413.817.516.2
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1999-2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
4. Changes in world cereal production2.1-1.0-1.66.26.2-2.1
       
5. Changes in cereal production in the LIFDCs       
 1.75.14.42.33.8-0.6
       
6. Changes in cereal production in LIFDCs less China and India       
 3.26.74.3-0.54.54.5
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2002-2006 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
   (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat104.6-1.417.149.131.5-40.2
Maize101.7-12.123.334.136.5-31.5
Rice112.35.79.917.383.7-14.6
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to 2002-2004 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base 2002-2004 = 100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 2002-2004 = 100, is based on 16 rice export quotations.
* January - September average.



Table A2. World cereal stocks1 ( million tonnes)
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
estimate
2010
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 471.9 471.9 432.4 426.7 505.2 509.1
Wheat 180.6 182.5 164.0 143.3 172.3 182.8
held by:      
- main exporters 257.258.639.029.247.252.2
- others165.3123.9125.0114.1125.1130.6
Coarse grains 191.7 184.7 164.1 172.6 208.7 205.0
held by:      
- main exporters292.789.959.869.080.177.8
- others107.694.7104.4103.6128.6127.2
Rice (milled basis) 99.6 104.7 104.3 110.8 124.1 121.3
held by:      
- main exporters219.323.423.126.532.122.4
- others97.381.381.284.392.098.9
Developed countries 188.6 189.0 130.4 120.6 164.4 169.9
Australia10.013.56.25.35.96.7
Canada14.516.210.58.513.010.6
European Union 347.644.330.025.841.939.9
Japan4.74.84.44.03.93.8
Romania 45.05.63.8---
Russian Federation9.19.37.05.513.211.3
South Africa4.14.12.71.82.43.4
Ukraine4.24.84.24.45.67.5
United States74.771.749.954.365.972.2
Developing countries 283.3 282.8 302.1 306.1 340.7 339.2
Asia 237.2 238.8 255.0 263.4 293.5 292.9
China152.8149.0163.0167.6188.4198.7
India26.725.828.535.541.730.3
Indonesia5.75.15.86.78.911.0
Iran, Islamic Republic of3.23.63.52.93.83.4
Korea, Republic of2.52.52.52.72.42.5
Pakistan2.13.22.43.12.92.7
Philippines2.32.92.83.44.54.1
Syrian Arab Republic4.34.43.52.22.01.8
Turkey6.76.07.05.13.84.8
Africa 23.2 24.8 29.0 24.6 27.2 27.6
Algeria3.64.14.24.54.05.5
Egypt3.14.54.63.96.35.7
Ethiopia0.10.10.21.11.30.5
Morocco4.82.64.02.22.03.2
Nigeria1.31.42.11.01.31.3
Tunisia1.21.41.32.01.61.5
Central America 6.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.3
Mexico4.62.93.03.13.12.6
South America 16.3 14.2 12.8 12.8 15.0 14.2
Argentina5.34.94.15.92.22.8
Brazil6.64.53.62.28.56.8
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Up to 2007 25 member countries, from 2008 27 member countries.
4 From 2008 included in the EU.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.



Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains ( USD/tonne)
  Wheat Maize Sorghum
  US No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord. Prot.
1
US Soft Red
Winter No.2
2
Argentina
Trigo Pan
3
US No.2
Yellow
2
Argentina 3 US No.2
Yellow
2
Period
 
Annual (July/June )      
2003/04161149154115109118
2004/05154138123979099
2005/06175138138104101108
2006/07212176188150145155
2007/08361311318200192206
2008/09270201234188180170
Monthly      
2007 - October 352323321163180172
2007 - November332307290171179171
2007 - December 381345310179171192
2008 - January381343330206199225
2008 - February449403365220207222
2008 - March482397395234216233
2008 - April382301-248224243
2008 - May349258-242207240
2008 - June 358249363281258268
2008 - July 341245329267252232
2008 - August343253307232217209
2008 - September308222280229203208
2008 - October 252183235181169158
2008 - November247182189166156146
2008 - December 240182177160152151
2009 - January256193213172160148
2009 - February241183218163158145
2009 - March244186214165163153
2009 - April242180211168166149
2009 - May265201210180186167
2009 - June 263201228177185167
2009 - July 232175234151164145
2009 - August218161229153166154
2009 - September200158208152163152
2009 - October 212175214168175174
1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf.
2 Delivered United States Gulf.
3 Up River f.o.b.
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.



Table A4a. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1, 2008/09 or 2009 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 or 2008 2008/09 or 2009
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  37 419.1 2 814.4 40 233.5 45 042.9 38 676.5 2 425.5 36 251.0
North Africa   18 260.1 0.0 18 260.1 20 817.0 20 817.0 0.0 20 817.0
EgyptJuly/June11 873.7 0.0 11 873.7 15 196.0 15 196.0 0.0 15 196.0
MoroccoJuly/June6 386.4 0.0 6 386.4 5 621.0 5 621.0 0.0 5 621.0
Eastern Africa  4 426.6 1 788.2 6 214.8 7 496.0 6 656.6 1 534.1 5 122.5
BurundiJan./Dec. 116.7 22.3 139.0 144.0 39.4 38.4 1.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 57.0 0.0 57.0 45.0 19.0 0.0 19.0
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 126.8 9.3 136.1 103.0 59.8 5.7 54.1
EritreaJan./Dec. 187.3 17.2 204.5 329.0 28.5 0.0 28.5
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 588.5 896.41 484.9 828.0 691.4 476.4 215.0
KenyaOct./Sept.1 010.2 197.21 207.4 2 561.0 2 561.0 214.1 2 346.9
RwandaJan./Dec. 146.4 11.3 157.7 166.0 67.4 23.3 44.1
SomaliaAug./July 381.9 90.1 472.0 720.0 720.0 401.3 318.7
SudanNov./Oct.1 138.8 416.21 555.0 1 708.0 1 635.1 295.4 1 339.7
UgandaJan./Dec. 146.9 83.9 230.8 155.0 98.0 32.3 65.7
United Rep. of TanzaniaJune/May 526.1 44.3 570.4 737.0 737.0 47.2 689.8
Southern Africa  2 741.8 523.0 3 264.8 3 702.3 3 702.3 463.2 3 239.1
AngolaApril/March 768.6 5.8 774.4 836.7 836.7 0.0 836.7
LesothoApril/March 201.9 24.2 226.1 202.8 202.8 0.3 202.5
MadagascarApril/March 277.0 60.9 337.9 217.2 217.2 10.8 206.4
MalawiApril/March 125.3 56.8 182.1 189.8 189.8 68.5 121.3
MozambiqueApril/March 688.9 62.1 751.0 974.7 974.7 85.9 888.8
SwazilandMay/April 123.1 22.2 145.3 128.0 128.0 6.0 122.0
ZambiaMay/April 55.6 4.4 60.0 139.9 139.9 6.6 133.3
ZimbabweApril/March 501.4 286.6 788.0 1 013.2 1 013.2 285.1 728.1
Western Africa  10 435.6 393.4 10 829.0 11 214.2 6 696.3 277.5 6 418.8
Coastal Countries   7 881.8 152.9 8 034.7 8 529.3 4 884.9 83.4 4 801.5
BeninJan./Dec. 63.8 6.3 70.1 72.0 52.0 2.0 50.0
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 182.4 11.51 193.9 1 240.0 797.7 20.8 776.9
GhanaJan./Dec. 804.0 29.6 833.6 990.0 276.3 11.2 265.1
GuineaJan./Dec. 456.9 35.4 492.3 509.0 84.6 12.0 72.6
LiberiaJan./Dec. 214.8 38.3 253.1 270.0 91.3 18.8 72.5
NigeriaJan./Dec.4 865.1 0.04 865.1 5 180.0 3 449.6 0.0 3 449.6
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 205.1 27.2 232.3 174.0 53.3 17.5 35.8
TogoJan./Dec. 89.7 4.6 94.3 94.3 80.1 1.1 79.0
Sahelian Countries   2 553.8 240.5 2 794.3 2 684.9 1 811.4 194.1 1 617.3
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 282.2 23.1 305.3 294.3 87.8 31.3 56.5
ChadNov./Oct. 56.4 66.0 122.4 149.1 127.7 85.5 42.2
GambiaNov./Oct. 101.0 2.8 103.8 109.5 112.0 2.7 109.3
Guinea-BissauNov./Oct. 117.7 7.0 124.7 95.0 56.7 2.9 53.8
MaliNov./Oct. 217.9 8.0 225.9 273.9 87.4 9.4 78.0
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 369.9 60.4 430.3 418.1 408.3 22.0 386.3
NigerNov./Oct. 341.4 55.1 396.5 313.7 88.3 31.1 57.2
SenegalNov./Oct.1 067.3 18.1 1 085.4 1 031.3 843.2 9.2 834.0
Central Africa  1 555.0 109.8 1 664.8 1 813.4 804.3 150.7 653.6
CameroonJan./Dec. 570.5 8.6 579.1 622.0 362.9 4.3 358.6
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 41.5 14.4 55.9 61.5 31.1 19.1 12.0
CongoJan./Dec. 312.0 2.5 314.5 325.0 114.2 3.7 110.5
Dem.Rep.of the Congo Jan./Dec. 591.8 76.9 668.7 761.0 270.8 117.7 153.1
Equatorial GuineaJan./Dec. 26.8 0.0 26.8 25.0 14.6 0.0 14.6
Sao Tome and PrincipeJan./Dec. 12.4 7.4 19.8 18.9 10.7 5.9 4.8



Table A4b. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1,2008/09 or 2009 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 or 2008 2008/09 or 2009
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA   38 519.2 1 450.0 39 969.2 46 182.0 43 751.6 1 472.1 42 279.5
CIS in Asia   5 361.2 37.4 5 398.6 6 357.0 6 357.0 82.3 6 274.7
ArmeniaJuly/June 375.6 7.4 383.0 396.0 396.0 1.6 394.4
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 361.4 2.8 1 364.2 1 654.0 1 654.0 0.8 1 653.2
GeorgiaJuly/June 834.5 8.1 842.6 856.0 856.0 18.6 837.4
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 445.4 0.0 445.4 521.0 521.0 9.8 511.2
TajikistanJuly/June1 042.2 19.1 1 061.3 1 018.0 1 018.0 51.5 966.5
TurkmenistanJuly/June 286.4 0.0 286.4 449.0 449.0 0.0 449.0
UzbekistanJuly/June1 015.7 0.0 1 015.7 1 463.0 1 463.0 0.0 1 463.0
Far East   22 569.3 1 223.1 23 792.4 23 773.8 22 163.1 775.2 21 387.9
BangladeshJuly/June3 020.7 313.3 3 334.0 3 350.7 3 350.7 236.8 3 113.9
BhutanJuly/June 73.4 0.0 73.4 75.4 75.4 0.0 75.4
CambodiaJan./Dec. 33.3 7.6 40.9 40.0 4.3 1.3 3.0
China (Mainland)July/June1 493.0 0.0 1 493.0 2 282.0 2 282.0 0.0 2 282.0
D.P.R. of KoreaNov./Oct. 664.8 763.1 1 427.9 1 539.6 501.4 354.1 147.3
IndiaApril/March1 893.2 21.9 1 915.1 133.5 133.5 22.5 111.0
IndonesiaApril/March7 228.6 16.0 7 244.6 5 695.3 5 695.3 0.0 5 695.3
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 24.2 7.4 31.6 17.4 2.3 2.3 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 290.8 5.0 295.8 275.3 275.3 41.9 233.4
NepalJuly/June 173.8 16.2 190.0 190.0 190.0 25.0 165.0
Pakistan May/April1 519.5 2.1 1 521.6 3 046.6 3 046.6 38.7 3 007.9
PhilippinesJuly/June4 928.5 16.9 4 945.4 5 875.0 5 875.0 10.3 5 864.7
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 172.0 46.1 1 218.1 1 190.0 668.3 36.4 631.9
Timor-LesteJuly/June 53.5 7.5 61.0 63.0 63.0 5.9 57.1
Near East   10 588.7 189.5 10 778.2 16 051.2 15 231.5 614.6 14 616.9
AfghanistanJuly/June 855.2 156.9 1 012.1 2 521.2 2 521.2 580.3 1 940.9
IraqJuly/June4 369.9 12.1 4 382.0 4 879.0 4 879.0 18.7 4 860.3
Syrian Arab Republic July/June2 363.6 8.4 2 372.0 5 282.0 5 282.0 11.6 5 270.4
YemenJan./Dec.3 000.0 12.1 3 012.1 3 369.0 2 549.3 4.0 2 545.3
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 502.4 163.8 1 666.2 1 782.7 1 782.7 170.9 1 611.8
HaitiJuly/June 501.3 91.9 593.2 647.0 647.0 142.5 504.5
HondurasJuly/June 658.0 28.0 686.0 731.0 731.0 9.2 721.8
NicaraguaJuly/June 343.1 43.9 387.0 404.7 404.7 19.2 385.5
OCEANIA   431.3 0.0 431.3 431.3 177.6 0.0 177.6
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 1.9 0.0 1.9
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 380.0 0.0 380.0 380.0 166.0 0.0 166.0
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 7.4 0.0 7.4
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.6
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 1.7 0.0 1.7
EUROPE   293.0 45.9 338.9 88.0 88.0 0.0 88.0
Republic of MoldovaJuly/June 293.0 45.9 338.9 88.0 88.0 0.0 88.0
TOTAL   78 165.0 4 474.1 82 639.1 93 526.9 84 476.4 4 068.5 80 407.9
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 735 in 2006).
2 Estimates based on information available as of early October 2009.



Table A5. Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries1, 2009/10 estimates
( thousand tonnes)
   2008/09 2009/10
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  27 411.5 1 125.8 28 537.3 22 793.0 4 861.9 266.1 4 595.8
Northern Africa  20 817.0 0.0 20 817.0 16 192.0 3 660.5 0.0 3 660.5
EgyptJuly/June15 196.0 0.0 15 196.0 13 026.0 3 144.3 0.0 3 144.3
MoroccoJuly/June5 621.0 0.0 5 621.0 3 166.0 516.2 0.0 516.2
Eastern Africa  3 355.4 662.6 4 018.0 3 450.0 153.7 33.1 120.6
KenyaOct./Sept.2 346.9 214.1 2 561.0 2 320.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SomaliaAug./July 318.7 401.3 720.0 595.0 28.2 28.2 0.0
United Rep. of TanzaniaJune/May 689.8 47.2 737.0 535.0 125.5 4.9 120.6
Southern Africa  3 239.1 463.2 3 702.3 3 151.0 1 047.7 233.0 814.7
AngolaApril/March 836.7 0.0 836.7 908.0 203.7 0.0 203.7
LesothoApril/March 202.5 0.3 202.8 212.0 68.3 0.2 68.1
MadagascarApril/March 206.4 10.8 217.2 263.0 36.6 6.5 30.1
MalawiApril/March 121.3 68.5 189.8 113.0 101.8 24.3 77.5
MozambiqueApril/March 888.8 85.9 974.7 813.0 298.8 57.2 241.6
SwazilandMay/April 122.0 6.0 128.0 127.0 38.2 0.9 37.3
ZambiaMay/April 133.3 6.6 139.9 25.0 6.9 1.6 5.3
Zimbabwe April/March 728.1 285.1 1 013.2 690.0 293.4 142.3 151.1
ASIA   38 952.0 1 074.0 40 026.0 33 712.2 8 102.0 95.2 8 006.8
CIS in Asia   6 274.7 82.3 6 357.0 5 596.0 659.3 0.2 659.1
ArmeniaJuly/June 394.4 1.6 396.0 355.0 93.8 0.0 93.8
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 653.2 0.8 1 654.0 1 479.0 82.2 0.0 82.2
GeorgiaJuly/June 837.4 18.6 856.0 909.0 116.2 0.2 116.0
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 511.2 9.8 521.0 366.0 33.0 0.0 33.0
TajikistanJuly/June 966.5 51.5 1 018.0 777.0 110.6 0.0 110.6
TurkmenistanJuly/June 449.0 0.0 449.0 460.0 9.5 0.0 9.5
UzbekistanJuly/June1 463.0 0.0 1 463.0 1 250.0 214.0 0.0 214.0
Far East   20 605.7 381.1 20 986.8 18 281.2 4 949.1 80.5 4 868.6
BangladeshJuly/June3 113.9 236.8 3 350.7 2 350.0 1 020.6 61.2 959.4
BhutanJuly/June 75.4 0.0 75.4 73.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China (Mainland)July/June2 282.0 0.0 2 282.0 2 417.0 572.1 0.0 572.1
IndiaApril/March 111.0 22.5 133.5 774.6 67.9 0.0 67.9
IndonesiaApril/March5 695.3 0.0 5 695.3 5 634.0 2 067.1 0.0 2 067.1
MongoliaOct./Sept. 233.4 41.9 275.3 266.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NepalJuly/June 165.0 25.0 190.0 240.0 3.6 3.6 0.0
Pakistan May/April3 007.9 38.7 3 046.6 1 521.0 72.7 11.1 61.6
PhilippinesJuly/June5 864.7 10.3 5 875.0 4 940.6 1 141.8 4.6 1 137.2
Timor-LesteJuly/June 57.1 5.9 63.0 65.0 3.3 0.0 3.3
Near East   12 071.6 610.6 12 682.2 9 835.0 2 493.6 14.5 2 479.1
AfghanistanJuly/June1 940.9 580.3 2 521.2 600.0 221.7 12.6 209.1
IraqJuly/June4 860.3 18.7 4 879.0 5 200.0 1 562.7 0.0 1 562.7
Syrian Arab Republic July/June5 270.4 11.6 5 282.0 4 035.0 709.2 1.9 707.3
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 611.8 170.9 1 782.7 1 816.0 310.5 60.8 249.7
HaitiJuly/June 504.5 142.5 647.0 636.0 128.0 58.9 69.1
HondurasJuly/June 721.8 9.2 731.0 765.0 138.1 1.1 137.0
NicaraguaJuly/June 385.5 19.2 404.7 415.0 44.4 0.8 43.6
EUROPE   88.0 0.0 88.0 88.0 19.5 0.0 19.5
Republic of MoldovaJuly/June 88.0 0.0 88.0 88.0 19.5 0.0 19.5
TOTAL   68 063.3 2 370.7 70 434.0 58 409.2 13 293.9 422.1 12 871.8
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 735 in 2006).
2 Estimates based on information available as of early October 2009.

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