Prospective analysis of aquaculture development


Prospective analysis of aquaculture development

The Delphi method


Nathanael Hishamunda
Fishery Planning Officer, Fisheries and Aquaculture Economics and Policy Division
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department

Florence Poulain
Consultant, Fisheries and Aquaculture Economics and Policy Division
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department


Neil Ridler, FAO Visiting Expert, Professor of Economics
University of New Brunswick
Saint John, Canada

Rome, 2009

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ISBN 978-92-5-106338-5

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© FAO 2010

Hishamunda, N., Poulain, F. & Neil Ridler
Prospective analysis of aquaculture development.
FAO Fisheries and AquacultureTechnical Paper; No. 521. Rome, FAO. 2009. 104p.


In order to evaluate the major impediments to aquaculture development in different regions of the world and to indicate opportunities for expansion, a Delphi analysis was undertaken. The Delphi method is particularly useful for sectors such as aquaculture where discontinuities exist and where historic trends cannot be easily extrapolated into the future. The recent global expansion of aquaculture is unlikely to continue at the same pace; however, certain regions have underexploited resources and offer considerable potential. The Delphi method allowed experts in different regions to indicate where the potential and constraints are; they were also encouraged to offer their policy solutions.

Experts from Latin America and the Caribbean were particularly optimistic about opportunities for future aquaculture expansion in their region. With a plentiful natural resource base and sufficient demand for fish products, their principal concern was lack of financing and of human capacity. Other regions such as Eastern Europe were less sanguine partly because of problems with species or with external factors such as negative public perceptions towards aquaculture. However, there was a consensus in all regions that aquaculture should be encouraged. Reasons given ranged from the contribution of aquaculture to food security and poverty alleviation to the role of aquaculture in reducing pressure on wild fisheries.


Preparation of this document (Download pdf 233 Kb)

1.  Background and summary 

2.  Method (Download pdf 57Kb)

     2.1 The Delphi method
     2.2 Application of the Delphi method in this study
     2.3 Response rate
     2.4 Questions

3.  Overall results (Download pdf 61 Kb)

     3.1 Should aquaculture be encouraged and why?
     3.2 What factors have contributed to the positive development of aquaculture in the past ?
     3.3 What factors affected aquaculture development negatively in the past – will they become more determinant over time ?
     3.4 What are the “unexplored opportunities ” that would have a very large positive impact in regions?

4.  Common constraints and strategies (Download pdf 61 Kb)

     4.1 Lack of (good) policies
     4.2 Financing
     4.3 Feed constraints and policies
     4.4 Seed constraints and policies
     4.5 Perceptions of and opposition to aquaculture
     4.6 Technology
     4.7 Summary

5.  Results by regions (Download pdf 115 Kb)

     5.1 Africa
     5.2 Asia and the Pacific
     5.3 Latin America
     5.4 North America
     5.5 Eastern Europe
     5.6 Western Europe

6.  Conclusions (Download pdf 49 Kb)

7.  Appendixes (Download pdf 86 Kb -  Download pdf 78 Kb - Download pdf 61 Kb - Download pdf 78 Kb - Download pdf 623 Kb)

     Appendix 1 Africa
     Appendix 2 Asia and the Pacific
     Appendix 3 Latin America
     Appendix 4 North America
     Appendix 5 Eastern Europe
     Appendix 6 Western Europe