No.3  October 2006  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

Food Emergencies Update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

Low-Income Food-Deficit country food situation overview

Regional reviews

Special features

Statistical appendix

Terminology and notes

Statistical appendix

Table A1. World cereal stocks1 (million tonnes)

  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
estimate
2007
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 575.7 484.3 415.5 467.4 468.4 421.7
Wheat 237.0 202.6 160.6 175.4 174.4 152.8
held by:      
- main exporters249.039.138.555.058.038.4
- others188.0163.5122.1120.4116.5114.5
Coarse Grains 195.9 162.4 149.6 193.3 190.0 162.6
held by:      
- main exporters270.355.348.593.990.965.6
- others125.6107.1101.199.599.197.0
Rice (milled basis) 142.8 119.3 105.3 98.7 103.9 106.2
held by:      
- main exporters236.321.722.518.922.024.1
- others106.697.782.879.881.982.1
Developed Countries 169.9 145.2 123.5 190.4 190.4 138.2
Australia10.25.29.211.116.18.1
European Union431.133.721.548.843.833.8
Canada10.38.910.314.516.312.4
Hungary52.01.40.8---
Japan5.75.44.94.74.84.2
Poland52.92.92.4---
Romania2.52.01.25.04.93.2
Russian Federation13.512.57.39.19.38.5
South Africa1.93.83.54.14.02.3
Ukraine5.25.12.94.34.93.5
United States67.445.144.474.772.449.9
Developing Countries 405.8 339.2 292.0 277.0 278.0 283.5
Asia 368.2 306.5 251.7 233.4 235.3 242.7
China3248.5209.1162.9151.9152.5156.9
India61.239.832.926.725.028.5
Indonesia5.05.76.05.75.24.8
Iran (Islamic Republic of)4.94.43.52.73.02.7
Korea, Republic of3.23.12.92.82.83.0
Pakistan6.52.91.91.83.23.6
Philippines1.92.21.92.22.72.8
Syria3.84.14.24.54.44.2
Turkey7.78.07.26.54.73.9
Africa 20.7 18.7 21.4 23.8 27.0 27.0
Algeria2.02.52.63.64.54.7
Egypt4.13.22.73.34.23.9
Ethiopia0.40.90.40.51.11.3
Morocco1.91.82.94.63.03.0
Nigeria2.12.11.71.21.71.7
Tunisia1.10.61.11.31.51.3
Central America 6.7 5.6 5.8 6.7 5.1 5.1
Mexico4.73.73.95.03.43.4
South America 9.8 8.1 12.8 12.9 10.4 8.5
Argentina2.33.23.31.92.41.6
Brazil3.81.65.87.24.03.3

1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Including Taiwan Province.
4 Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 25 member countries.
5 From 2005 included in EU 25 countries.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.


Table A2. Estimated Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income
Food-Deficit countries 2005/06 or 2006 estimates (in thousand tonnes)

   2004/05 or 2005 2005/06 or 2006
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  37 495.8 3 202.4 40 698.2 39 743.2 31 037.9 2 305.9 28 732.0
North Africa  16 781.8 8.2 16 790.0 16 843.0 16 843.0 5.3 16 837.7
EgyptJuly/June12 733.8 8.2 12 742.0 12 025.0 12 025.0 5.3 12 019.7
MoroccoJuly/June4 048.0 0.0 4 048.0 4 818.0 4 818.0 0.0 4 818.0
Eastern Africa  4 603.8 2 081.2 6 685.0 5 924.8 4 443.3 1 432.9 3 010.4
BurundiJan./Dec. 42.1 53.9 96.0 119.0 51.1 50.9 0.2
ComorosJan./Dec. 38.0 0.0 38.0 40.0 19.9 0.0 19.9
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 56.2 19.0 75.2 72.0 44.4 7.6 36.8
EritreaJan./Dec. 159.8 205.5 365.3 383.0 70.9 63.5 7.4
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 26.4 786.1 812.5 481.0 434.3 434.1 0.2
KenyaOct./Sept.1 517.2 124.41 641.6 1 336.0 1 026.9 221.3 805.6
RwandaJan./Dec. 167.0 21.7 188.7 216.0 54.7 29.4 25.3
SomaliaAug./July 388.0 52.6 440.6 418.0 418.0 98.3 319.7
SudanNov./Oct.1 447.4 650.02 097.4 1 798.0 1 318.7 396.7 922.0
Tanzania,U.R.June/May 683.8 34.3 718.1 892.8 892.8 33.9 858.9
UgandaJan./Dec. 77.9 133.7 211.6 169.0 111.6 97.2 14.4
Southern Africa  2 965.4 437.2 3 402.6 4 131.6 4 131.6 379.8 3 751.8
AngolaApril/March 767.9 56.4 824.3 700.9 700.9 38.6 662.3
LesothoApril/March 183.1 5.7 188.8 209.3 209.3 15.6 193.7
MadagascarApril/March 237.7 29.9 267.6 316.0 316.0 31.4 284.6
MalawiApril/March 204.6 87.7 292.3 343.5 343.5 54.8 288.7
MozambiqueApril/March 696.4 40.3 736.7 989.5 989.5 92.8 896.7
SwazilandMay/April 133.5 5.3 138.8 121.8 121.8 15.3 106.5
ZambiaMay/April 61.7 62.9 124.6 240.2 240.2 68.3 171.9
ZimbabweApril/March 680.5 149.0 829.5 1 210.4 1 210.4 63.0 1 147.4
Western Africa  11 655.4 562.9 12 218.3 11 288.2 4 987.3 441.0 4 546.3
Coastal Countries  8 907.6 256.9 9 164.5 8 561.3 3 798.3 154.1 3 644.2
BeninJan./Dec. 124.4 13.1 137.5 118.0 91.8 1.4 90.4
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 228.0 27.01 255.0 1 206.1 597.0 12.2 584.8
GhanaJan./Dec. 873.0 55.7 928.7 801.0 285.5 60.4 225.1
GuineaJan./Dec. 349.5 30.1 379.6 325.0 135.1 10.5 124.6
LiberiaJan./Dec. 187.7 87.3 275.0 240.0 141.0 42.5 98.5
NigeriaJan./Dec.5 763.7 10.55 774.2 5 470.02 432.3 0.0 2 432.3
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 254.8 33.2 288.0 296.0 62.1 26.9 35.2
TogoJan./Dec. 126.5 0.0 126.5 105.2 53.5 0.2 53.3
Sahelian Countries  2 747.8 306.0 3 053.8 2 726.9 1 189.0 286.9 902.1
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 365.5 30.1 395.6 261.9 52.1 23.3 28.8
Cape VerdeNov./Oct. 53.2 31.5 84.7 105.0 43.0 27.0 16.0
ChadNov./Oct. 73.7 63.1 136.8 131.4 77.5 56.9 20.6
GambiaNov./Oct. 126.3 9.0 135.3 146.8 30.8 7.3 23.5
Guinea BissauNov./Oct. 74.2 9.3 83.5 82.4 14.8 4.3 10.5
MaliNov./Oct. 242.3 19.9 262.2 269.2 80.6 14.4 66.2
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 431.0 49.7 480.7 381.6 238.1 64.8 173.3
NigerNov./Oct. 375.3 79.3 454.6 324.6 94.5 74.9 19.6
SenegalNov./Oct.1 006.3 14.11 020.4 1 024.0 557.6 14.0 543.6
Central Africa  1 489.4 112.9 1 602.3 1 555.6 632.7 46.9 585.8
CameroonJan./Dec. 717.3 13.0 730.3 677.0 278.4 2.4 276.0
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 42.8 3.6 46.4 50.1 18.4 9.6 8.8
Congo, Dem.Rep.Jan./Dec. 411.3 86.8 498.1 500.0 209.8 29.4 180.4
Congo, Rep.Jan./Dec. 285.0 5.0 290.0 295.0 111.7 4.5 107.2
Eq. GuineaJan./Dec. 23.5 0.0 23.5 19.5 9.8 0.0 9.8
Sao Tome & PrincipeJan./Dec. 9.5 4.5 14.0 14.0 4.6 1.0 3.6

Table A2. (continued)

   2004/05 or 2005 2005/06 or 2006
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA/NEAR EAST   47 257.2 2 420.2 49 677.4 43 008.8 40 593.0 942.3 39 650.7
CIS in Asia   2 806.0 294.0 3 100.0 2 755.0 2 755.0 66.0 2. 689.0
ArmeniaJuly/June 154.0 9.0 163.0 107.0 107.0 3.0 104.0
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 113.0 34.0 1 147.0 1 051.0 1 051.0 6.0 1 045.0
GeorgiaJuly/June 903.0 67.0 970.0 893.0 893.0 14.0 879.0
Kyrgyz RepublicJuly/June 71.0 131.0 202.0 142.0 142.0 1.0 141.0
TajikistanJuly/June 303.0 53.0 356.0 270.0 270.0 42.0 228.0
TurkmenistanJuly/June 4.0 0.0 4.0 13.0 13.0 0.0 13.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 258.0 0.0 258.0 279.0 279.0 0.0 279.0
Far East   33 302.3 1 906.8 35 209.1 28 805.8 27 695.7 792.0 26 903.7
BangladeshJuly/June2 880.8 338.2 3 219.0 3 050.0 3 050.0 186.0 2 864.0
BhutanJuly/June 64.7 1.3 66.0 71.0 71.0 0.3 70.7
CambodiaJan./Dec. 64.8 15.2 80.0 41.9 16.4 3.9 12.5
China July/June15 888.1 66.9 15 955.0 10 564.0 10 564.0 0.0 10 564.0
IndiaApril/March 209.3 45.4 254.7 726.6 726.6 28.2 698.4
IndonesiaApril/March6 590.5 53.2 6 643.7 5 944.7 5 944.7 48.3 5 896.4
Korea, D.P.R.Nov./Oct. 72.4 1 164.5 1 236.9 900.0 463.3 405.2 58.1
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 12.3 15.8 28.1 27.6 0.6 0.6 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 208.6 39.4 248.0 323.0 183.4 29.7 153.7
NepalJuly/June 128.2 11.8 140.0 120.2 120.2 1.4 118.8
Pakistan May/April1 428.1 7.7 1 435.8 932.1 932.1 0.0 932.1
PhilippinesJuly/June4 512.0 48.2 4 560.2 4 904.7 4 904.7 71.0 4 833.7
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 174.5 99.2 1 273.7 1 150.0 668.7 17.4 651.3
Timor-LesteJuly/June 68.0 0.0 68.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 50.0
Near East   11 148.9 219.4 11 368.3 11 448.0 10 142.3 84.3 10 058.0
AfghanistanJuly/June1 602.2 184.8 1 787.0 481.0 481.0 43.5 437.5
IraqJuly/June4 299.9 9.3 4 309.2 6 017.0 6 017.0 28.8 5 988.2
SyriaJuly/June2 754.7 10.5 2 765.2 2 275.0 2 275.0 7.0 2 268.0
YemenJan./Dec.2 492.1 14.8 2 506.9 2 675.0 1 369.3 5.0 1 364.3
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 496.8 179.9 1 676.7 1 789.3 1 789.3 218.7 1 570.6
HaitiJuly/June 548.1 117.4 665.5 657.0 657.0 73.9 583.1
HondurasJuly/June 658.0 19.7 677.7 761.3 761.3 105.9 655.4
NicaraguaJuly/June 290.7 42.8 333.5 371.0 371.0 38.9 332.1
SOUTH AMERICA   896.6 47.0 943.6 1 010.7 1 010.7 17.0 993.7
EcuadorJuly/June 896.6 47.0 943.6 1 010.7 1 010.7 17.0 993.7
OCEANIA   407.0 0.0 407.0 415.7 78.5 0.0 78.5
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 349.3 0.0 349.3 358.0 78.5 0.0 78.5
Solomon Isl.Jan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
TongaJan./Dec. 6.4 0.0 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EUROPE   1 592.5 8.4 1 600.9 1 635.6 1 635.6 1.2 1 634.4
AlbaniaJuly/June 496.6 8.4 505.0 460.0 460.0 1.2 458.8
BelarusJuly/June 566.0 0.0 566.0 597.0 597.0 0.0 597.0
Bosnia-Herzegovina July/June 529.9 0.0 529.9 578.6 578.6 0.0 578.6
TOTAL   89 145.9 5 857.9 95 003.8 87 603.3 76 145.0 3 485.1 72 659.9

1 For definition of import requirements see terminology.
2 Estimates based on information available as of August 2006.


Table A3. Estimated Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries 2006/07 estimates (in thousand tonnes)

   2005/06 2006/07
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) 1 Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  21 768.1 517.3 22 285.4 18 409.0 2 180.4 354.7 1 825.7
Northern Africa  16 837.7 5.3 16 843.0 14 420.0 1 240.2 5.4 1 234.8
EgyptJuly/June12 019.7 5.3 12 025.0 11 802.0 1 046.8 5.4 1 041.4
MoroccoJuly/June4 818.0 0.0 4 818.0 2 618.0 193.4 0.0 193.4
Eastern Africa  1 178.6 132.2 1 310.8 1 040.0 154.5 97.0 57.5
SomaliaAug./July 319.7 98.3 418.0 420.0 59.6 59.6 0.0
TanzaniaJune/May 858.9 33.9 892.8 620.0 94.9 37.4 57.5
Southern Africa  3 751.8 379.8 4 131.6 2 949.0 785.7 252.3 533.4
AngolaApril/March 662.3 38.6 700.9 847.0 40.8 18.5 22.3
LesothoApril/March 193.7 15.6 209.3 209.0 64.1 5.0 59.1
MadagascarApril/March 284.6 31.4 316.0 270.0 20.5 18.1 2.4
MalawiApril/March 288.7 54.8 343.5 125.0 116.8 67.8 49.0
MozambiqueApril/March 896.7 92.8 989.5 809.0 189.1 76.5 112.6
SwazilandMay/April 106.5 15.3 121.8 127.0 35.3 2.5 32.8
ZambiaMay/April 171.9 68.3 240.2 105.0 42.6 21.2 21.4
Zimbabwe April/March1 147.4 63.0 1 210.4 457.0 276.5 42.7 233.8
ASIA/NEAR EAST  37 410.8 480.5 37 891.3 41 594.4 10 688.6 294.2 10 394.4
CIS in Asia  2 689.0 66.0 2 755.0 2 643.0 241.4 22.8 218.6
ArmeniaJuly/June 104.0 3.0 107.0 225.0 4.7 2.5 2.2
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 045.0 6.01 051.0 967.0 95.9 0.0 95.9
GeorgiaJuly/June 879.0 14.0 893.0 765.0 66.9 10.5 56.4
Kyrgyz RepublicJuly/June 141.0 1.0 142.0 110.0 21.0 0.0 21.0
TajikistanJuly/June 228.0 42.0 270.0 271.0 35.3 9.8 25.5
TurkmenistanJuly/June 13.0 0.0 13.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 279.0 0.0 279.0 291.0 17.6 0.0 17.6
Far East  26 028.1 335.2 26 363.3 30 481.4 5 102.9 124.3 4 978.6
BangladeshJuly/June2 864.0 186.0 3 050.0 3 050.0 323.7 23.7 300.0
BhutanJuly/June 70.7 0.3 71.0 71.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
China July/June10 564.0 0.0 10 564.0 10 182.0 640.2 0.0 640.2
IndiaApril/March 698.4 28.2 726.6 6 100.0 1 336.3 44.1 1 292.2
IndonesiaApril/March5 896.4 48.3 5 944.7 6 141.4 2 646.8 25.6 2 621.2
NepalJuly/June 118.8 1.4 120.2 180.0 9.5 9.5 0.0
Pakistan May/April 932.1 0.0 932.1 521.0 19.9 19.9 0.0
PhilippinesJuly/June4 833.7 71.0 4 904.7 4 176.0 126.4 1.4 125.0
Timor-LesteJuly/June 50.0 0.0 50.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Near East  8 693.7 79.3 8 773.0 8 470.0 724.2 69.2 655.0
AfghanistanJuly/June 437.5 43.5 481.0 740.0 67.0 67.0 0.0
IraqJuly/June5 988.2 28.8 6 017.0 5 430.0 466.7 0.7 466.0
SyriaJuly/June2 268.0 7.0 2 275.0 2 300.0 190.5 1.5 189.0
CENTRAL AMERICA  1 570.6 218.7 1 789.3 1 730.0 127.0 98.8 28.2
HaitiJuly/June 583.1 73.9 657.0 660.0 86.4 67.2 19.2
HondurasJuly/June 655.4 105.9 761.3 755.0 8.3 8.3 0.0
NicaraguaJuly/June 332.1 38.9 371.0 315.0 32.3 23.3 9.0
SOUTH AMERICA  993.7 17.0 1 010.7 931.0 22.3 0.0 22.3
EcuadorJuly/June 993.7 17.0 1 010.7 931.0 22.3 0.0 22.3
EUROPE   1 634.4 1.2 1 635.6 1 705.0 64.9 0.0 64.9
AlbaniaJuly/June 458.8 1.2 460.0 440.0 30.7 0.0 30.7
BelarusJuly/June 597.0 0.0 597.0 695.0 34.2 0.0 34.2
Bosnia-Herzegovina July/June 578.6 0.0 578.6 570.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL  63 377.6 1 234.7 64 612.3 64 369.4 13 083.2 747.7 12 335.5


1 For definition of import requirements see terminology.
2 Estimates based on information available as of August 2006.

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