The rainy season started well in October and has generally favoured 1995/96 food crops to be harvested from April. Given the current relative peace across the country, the area planted is expected to be higher this year compared to previous years. However, the uncertain security situation, the presence of land mines and the difficulty of distributing seeds and fertilizers by road are likely to prevent the realization of high yields. Overall, if favourable conditions continue, an above average harvest is expected. However, poor rainfall in January in central and southern provinces may adversely affect production somewhat.
Following below average cereal output in 1994/95, the food situation remains tight, particularly in southern provinces. The cereal import requirement in the current marketing year (1995/96) is estimated to be 560 000 tons, including 200 000 tons of commercial imports. Food aid pledges have reached 255 000 tons, of which 226 000 tons have been delivered so far. Reflecting the difficulties of commercial imports and transportation, prices of maize, at both wholesale and retail levels, continue to increase.
Since the UN-organized Round Table Conference in September 1995 on the reconstruction of Angola, where donors pledged a total of U.S.$ 993 million, efforts have concentrated on the consolidation of the peace process, provision of timely and appropriate humanitarian assistance and the rehabilitation of basic infrastructure. With three-fourths of the population dependent on farming, one of the first priorities is to restore production of foodcrops like millet, cassava, sorghum and beans, for which the country has a comparative advantage.
So far prospects for the 1995/96 maize crop are favourable. The country received significant rainfall in November and December last year and cumulative rainfall so far has been far above normal in most crop areas, encouraging farmers to plant more land. Input supply has been adequate given government supplies of free seeds and ploughing subsidies under the drought relief programme. Crops are reported in favourable condition in most parts of the country. Assuming that the rains continue, a good coarse grain harvest is in prospect.
Pastures have also recovered substantially and this will improve the quality of livestock. The national food security situation is satisfactory as actual and planned imports cover much of the 238 000 tons needed for the marketing year 1995/96.
Following widespread rains received in most parts of the country in November and December, the government cancelled its drought declaration of the previous year in December. Continued rainfall in January has encouraged farmers to increase planted area. The supply of inputs is reported to be adequate. If these favourable conditions continue, an above average harvest can be expected for the 1995/96 season crop.
The tight food supply situation remains a concern but is less alarming than previosuly anticipated following an upward revision in the final estimate of 1994/95 production, estimated at 89 000 tons . Despite some improvement since September/October, import deliveries continue to be relatively slow in covering a requirement of some 277 000 tons. Of the 60 000 tons of relief assistance needed, donors have pledged 57 000 tons, of which 48 000 tons have been delivered so far. The government�s drought relief programme has continued its distribution of food to vulnerable households.
Widespread rainfall has continued over most areas of the country since December and January, providing favourable growing conditions for main season crops. However, prospects are uncertain, following cyclones in January which have damaged large crop areas. Confirmation is awaited on the damage inflicted to thousands of hectares of rice fields that are reported to be flooded in the eastern regions of Antananarivo and Ambatondrazaka, the largest rice granary of the country. Despite a relatively good crop in 1994/95, the food situation remains tight. The price of rice has remained high and has increased during the past months, as a result of distribution problems and speculation. Pledges of food assistance amount to 21 000 tons, of which 13 000 tons have been delivered so far.
Significant rainfall was received in southern regions in November. Presently crops are flowering and progressing satisfactorily. In the central and northern regions, planting started in December following regular and widespread rainfall which favoured crop development. Input supply is reported to be satisfactory and hybrid seeds have been provided to farmers through the drought recovery programme. Overall, a good harvest is expected for both coarse grains and cassava.
Following a good harvest in 1994/95, the food supply situation has improved substantially. However, commercial imports are arriving slowly. Maize prices remain high and sales are still being rationed. To cover relief requirement for the 1995/96 marketing year, food aid pledges by donors stand at 192 000 tons, of which 106 000 tons have been delivered.
Widespread rainfall in December and January has favoured proper establishment of late planted crops in the northern areas. The main crops in southern and central parts are reported to be in satisfactory condition. No shortages of fertilizers and pesticides is reported, though seed supply appears to have been slightly below normal and draught animals in exceptional shortage. Indications are that area planted this year will be above normal. Provided favourable weather conditions continue, an above-average harvest is expected as in the previous year. In the southern provinces where sorghum and cassava represent an important part of the diet, crops are also reported to be in good condition.
Following above average cereal production in 1994/95, the country�s import needs for 1995/96 have reduced considerably and the overall food supply situation has improved significantly. Nevertheless, Mozambique�s food aid requirement is estimated at some 360 000 tons for 1995/96. Donor pledges amounting to 279 000 tons fully cover the requirement, though only 273 000 tons have been delivered so far. An estimated 650 000 people currently require emergency food assistance. Transportation difficulties continue to hamper food relief programmes in some rural areas.
Rainfall was considerably below normal throughout the country until December, with only a few showers reported in some northern and southern areas in late October and November. However, favourable rains were received in northern areas during the second half of December and in January, providing relief and enabling planting of crops after substantial delays in many growing areas. Additional rainfall is needed for the remainder of the season to enable crop recovery to average levels.
The output of wheat at the Hardap Irrigation Scheme in December 1995 was 1 730 tons. As a result, the national production of irrigated wheat in 1995 now stands at 2 800 tons, compared to 6 300 tons in the previous year. The food supply situation remains satisfactory. Large imports of wheat and maize are being received and commercial stocks are reported to be at safe levels. Distribution of food to 163 200 drought-affected people continues largely through the government Drought Relief Programme. Food aid pledges by donors amount to 11 000 tons, of which 1 000 tons of wheat have been delivered so far (WFP TO CONFIRM).
Above normal rainfall throughout the country in December generally favoured germination and establishment of coarse grain crops. Following a two to three week dry spell in January, beneficial rainfall swept across the western corn belt becoming locally heavy in the east, maintaining adequate to excessive moisture for development of the maize crop. More recently, torrential rainfall in the north and east caused flooding which resulted in 30 deaths, made a large number homeless and damaged property and infrastructure. The full extent of damage to crops, however, has not yet been ascertained.
After a drought-reduced harvest in 1994/95, early prospects for the 1995/96 coarse grain crops to be harvested from April 1996 are favourable. Initial indications are that the area under maize will be substantially higher than last year but may remain below average as a result of crop diversification towards sunflowerseed, wheat and groundnuts.
The official estimate for the 1995/96 winter wheat crop currently stands at 2.1 million tons, nearly 300 000 tons higher than the 1.8 million tons harvested in the previous year. A total of 1.36 million hectares were planted to wheat this season, compared with 1.04 million hectares in the 1994/95 season.
Large cereal stocks cushioned the impact of a sharp drop in production in 1994/95. However, to meet its domestic shortfall during the 1995/96 season, the country needs to import some 800 000 tons of mainly white maize.
Rainfall has been favourable throughout the country since November. This has encouraged farmers to buy farm inputs and plant more land. Coarse grains are in good condition and the prospects are that an above-average crop will be harvested.
Due to poor production in 1994/95, the national food supply situation remains tight. Only half the anticipated commercial imports of 84 000 tons had been received by December. The 6 000 tons of food aid pledged by donors have been delivered. Planned imports of wheat and rice appear to cover domestic requirements but there remains unfulfilled need for maize, to be covered through commercial imports or food aid.
Favourable rainfall has continued in December and January over most parts of the country. Conditions are much better than last year and crops are reported to be doing well in most areas. However, seed distribution, including drought- resistant varieties, through a donor-funded emergency supply programme was not as successful as anticipated. After two consecutive years of drought-reduced harvest, current indications are that the 1995/96 maize production will be significantly higher than last year.
The food situation remains tight. Stocks of maize continue to be depleted and the price of maize has been rising, reflecting a worsening grain shortage in some provincial centres. Prices are highest in parts of western and southern provinces, the country's traditional bread basket which has been ravaged by drought in the past few years. The food supply situation is most favourable in eastern provinces, following a steady inflow of maize from Malawi. Food relief assistance of 60 000 tons pledged by donors covers most of the requirement, but deliveries so far stand at 43 000 tons.
Favourable rainfall since mid-November has benefited most growing areas and allowed establishment of coarse grains. Following a dry spell in January, rainfall activity has continued, causing localised flooding in some provinces.
Conditions remain favourable and if rains continue beyond February, the 1996 harvest is expected to be much better than last year. However, production in the south and south-east may be affected by abnorally dry conditions.
Some observers are forecasting overall 1996 maize production of over two million tons against 840 000 tons last season. Commercial farmers alone are anticipating to contribute with a production of about 600 000 tons from 250 000 tons last season despite their difficulties in obtaining a finance package at the beginning of the year to reschedule debts and finance the 1995/96 crop.
The distribution of large amounts of grains under the Grain Loan Scheme has continued until February, benefiting almost 6 million farmers in the communal sector. This should lessen the impact of recent large increases in the price of maize by the Grain Marketing Board.