An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Burundi from 23 January to 3 February 1996 estimates that 1996 season A production was 15 percent below normal because of continuing insecurity in the provinces of Bubanza, Bujumbura Rural, Cibitoké and in some parts of the provinces of N’Gozi, Muyinga, Muramvya and Karuzi. In addition, unfavourable weather conditions such as dry spells and hailstorms reduced yields of beans and maize in some localized areas. However, in regions where security and weather conditions were satisfactory, planted area and yields both increased compared to 1995 season A, except for Irish potato for which seed was in short supply.
The Mission estimates food production for the 1996 season A at 1.26 million tons which represents 96 percent of the crop in 1995 and 85 percent of the pre-crisis level. Prospects for 1996 season B and C are uncertain and will depend on improved security, favourable weather conditions and receipt of assistance with agricultural inputs (seeds and fertilizers) and farm tools by returning displacees and farmers affected by civil strife. Provided that these factors materialize in the coming months, the Mission forecast aggregate food production in 1996 at approximately 3.5 million tons comprising 271 760 tons of cereals, 334 101 tons of pulses, 1.38 million tons of roots and tubers and 1.54 million tons of bananas.
Using historic consumption norms, food import requirements are estimated at 54 000 tons of cereals and 59 000 tons of pulses. Commercial food imports are forecast at 31 000 tons of cereals and 5 000 tons of pulses, implying food aid requirements in the amount of 23 000 tons of cereals and 54 000 tons of pulses. The shortfall of 161 000 tons of roots and tubers and 125 000 tons of bananas not covered by conventional food aid underscores Burundi's need for international assistance through rehabilitation programmes to shore up production of these crops to pre-crisis levels in areas where security conditions are satisfactory.
Repatriates and internally displaced people will continue to be the top priority for food assistance in 1996. Due to persisting insecurity in the northern and western areas of the country and the consequent slowing down of the resettlement process, there is a need to maintain food aid stocks at an adequate level. However, where the security situation is improving, food aid could increasingly be used for rehabilitation and resettlement programmes.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November 1995, estimated the cereal and pulse output at 149 000 tons, 42 percent lower than the previous year and 25 percent below the average over the previous three years. Plantings and yields were negatively affected by insufficient precipitation at the beginning and the end of the rainy season and localized pest damage.
As a result of reduced production and low carryover stocks, the food supply situation is expected to be tight in 1996. Food aid assistance is required for these groups which consist mainly of people affected by the past war. These include the disabled, orphans and female headed households, as well as recent returnees who have experienced problems in finding land and/or suitable employment. In addition, large groups of pastoralist in Dankalia, Barka and Sahel will be affected by the increase in grain prices. Food aid interventions will also be needed in areas of the country where production was significantly reduced, particularly in areas of Seraye province bordering Gash-Setit, around Dekamahare, in the lowlands neighbouring the Hozomo Plains in Akele Guzay province, in areas around Keren in the Senhit province, and in part of Barka province bordering Senhit. Overall, some 750 000 persons are estimated to be in need of relief assistance.
The 1996 cereal and pulse import requirement is estimated at 291 000 tons, which is substantially higher than in the previous year. Commercial imports, mainly to supply urban mills, are anticipated to reach 100 000 tons, leaving a deficit of 191 000 tons which needs to be covered by food aid. Of this , some 79 000 tons are required as emergency food aid for the affected population, with the difference to be covered through programme food aid.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December 1995 estimated the 1995 main “meher” cereal and pulse crop at 9.1 million tons , some 15 percent higher than the record crop in 1994. An increase of 5 percent in the area planted and higher yields are attributed to timely and well distributed rainfall during the meher and belg seasons, liberalization of the grain trade, improved distribution of fertilizers and the absence of pests. Early prospects for planting secondary crops (belg) are favourable due to normal rains in January which provided adequate soil moisture. Assuming an average secondary crop of some 335 000 tons, aggregate cereal and pulse production in 1995/96 is forecast at 9.4 million tons, 13 percent above 1994/95.
Reflecting this year’s bumper cereal harvest, prices of cereals have continued their pre-harvest fall. In particular, the price of maize has dropped sharply.
Despite the satisfactory food supply situation, the FAO/WFP Mission estimated that between 2 and 3 million people remain vulnerable to food shortages as a result of localized crop loss/failure and lack of access to food due to limited resources and displacement. Of particular concern is chronic food deficit in Central and Eastern Tigray, North and South Wollo, North Omo and North and West Hararghe. In some of these areas the situation is aggravated due to two consecutive bad harvests and inadequate delivery of food aid during 1995. Localized food shortages also exist in parts of Amhara, Oromia and the Southern region (SEPAR).
Given the revised official population figure, relatively high level of carryover stocks and a favourable forecast for domestic production, the FAO/WFP Mission estimated that no cereal imports will be necessary in 1996 , other than limited amounts of food aid already pledged. The food aid requirement for the vulnerable population, estimated at 291 000 tons, is expected to be covered by committed pledges, a sharp drawdown of in-country food aid stocks and donor-supported local purchases. However, should these local purchases not materialize, additional food aid imports will be required to meet emergency needs.
Prospects for the 1995/96 secondary “short rains” cereal crop, which accounts for some 15 percent of annual production are favourable. This crop provides the main source of food in parts of Central and Eastern provinces. Despite a delay in the start of the rainy season, substantial rainfall in November and December allowed completion of planting and benefited crop development.
Harvesting of the 1995 “long rains” cereal crops is complete. The main maize crop is provisionally estimated at 2.3 million tons, 12 percent below the exceptional harvest in the previous year, though still above average. Despite erratic rainfall in the beginning of the season, abundant precipitation from June to August allowed crop recovery and, overall, the rainy season was considered normal. However, production declined due to a decrease of 12 percent in the area planted as a result of farmers’ financial difficulties, lower prices and market disruption following liberalization. By contrast, production of wheat increased 18 percent from the previous year to an above normal level of 315 000 tons.
Assuming normal short rains, aggregate cereal production in 1995/96 is forecast at 3.4 million tons, some 8 percent lower than in the previous year.
As a result of two consecutive good harvests and high levels of carryover stock, prices of maize have fallen sharply since late October 1995. The Government has exported 400 000 tons to generate cash to pay debts to farmers. However, in order to meet normal food consumption needs, the country may have to import limited quantities of maize later in the year. Import of wheat in marketing year 1995/96 are anticipated to decline to some 300 000 tons.
Light rains in December benefited the 1996 first (A) season foodcrops and maturing crops. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December forecast the output at 1.78 million tons; including 73 000 tons of cereals, 117 000 tons of pulses, 1.06 million tons of banana and plantain, 536 000 tons of roots and tubers. At this level, food output is 24 percent higher than the A season crop in 1995 but still 18 percent lower than the pre-war average. Production was boosted by favourable weather conditions during the season and an increase of 14 percent in the area planted due to an increase in rural population following the closure of displaced camps in April 1995 and the return of refugees.
Assuming that 20 percent of the refugees currently in surrounding countries will return to Rwanda the population in the first half of 1996 is estimated at 6.31 million. Based on this, the grain import requirement in the first half of 1996 was estimated by the Mission at 85 000 tons of cereals and 32 000 tons of pulses. This includes the conversion of the non-tradable food deficit into cereal equivalent . After taking into account expected commercial imports and programmed aid, there is still a deficit of 71 000 tons of cereals and 26 000 tons of pulses to be met by emergency food aid.
Despite the overall improvement in the food situation, food supplies will remain tight in parts of Kibuno, Gikongoro Butare and Cyangugu prefectures, which continue to suffer from inadequate agricultural labour. Food difficulties are also anticipated for large numbers of vulnerable people who do not have adequate resources to purchase food, despite the well supplied markets. Overall, the Mission estimated that about 1 million persons will need some food assistance in the first half of 1996. This includes 526 000 vulnerable people, 235 000 indirect beneficiaries in food-for-work schemes, 211 000 returnees and 72 000 recipients of institutional feeding. Recent reports indicate crop losses in Bugasera, where rains failed at the critical flowering stage, and more than half the season’s maize and bean crops have been lost.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 secondary “Der” cereal crop, which normally accounts for some 25 percent of cereal production, is well advanced. The outlook is generally favourable. In areas where security conditions are stable, planted area increased to compensate for the poor main crop. Rainfall during the season was generally satisfactory. Latest forecasts indicate a cereal crop of some 100 000 tons, including 40 000 tons of sorghum and 60 000 tons of maize, which is slightly above the previous year’s favourable crop. However, production is likely to be reduced in some areas affected by inter-clan conflict (mainly around Baidoa town), localized floods (parts in Middle Shabelle region) and dry spells (Sakow area of Juba Valley, Burhakaba in Bay region and, in particular, Bardera in Gebo region). Farmers’ financial difficulties will also result in crop reduction in parts.
Output of the 1995/96 main Gu cereal crop, harvested until September, was estimated at 172 000 tons, 45 percent below the production of the previous year. Production was negatively affected by a decline in the area planted in response to low prices and localized insecurity, as well as by reduced yield due to inadequate rains and severe pest infestation.
The 1995/96 aggregate cereal production (Gu and Der crops) is forecast at 284 000 tons, 30 percent less than in 1994/95 and well below average.
Following adequate rainfall in recent months in most areas, pastures and livestock are reported to be in good condition. However, insecurity in the country has also disrupted marketing and herding patterns of livestock. This, together with the inflow of displaced persons, may result in overgrazing in traditional livestock producing regions of Togdheer and Bakool.
Due to reduced output of the main cereal crop, prevailing banditry that hampers marketing activities and the closure of Mogadishu port, prices of cereals have increased in past months. In Mogadishu, the price of sorghum has risen 65 percent since October, aggravating the tight food situation for large sections of the urban population without resources to acquire food. In rural areas, the food supply position is expected to deteriorate from March when food stocks will be depleted.
Import requirements in marketing year 1995/96 are expected to reach 320 000 tons, sharply higher than in the previous year. With anticipated commercial imports of 125 000 tons, there is a deficit of 195 000 tons to be covered by food aid.
Early prospects for the 1996 developing wheat crop, to be harvested from March, are favourable. The area planted is currently estimated to be some 14 percent above last year, reflecting efforts by the Government to encourage planting in irrigated areas, higher international prices and devaluation of the currency. Temperature, which can significantly effect yields, has been normal for the past two months. The pest situation is considered to be calm and the early sown crop is reported to be in very good condition. Despite some limits on fertiliser supplies and a lower than normal water level in the river Nile, yields are expected to be average and 1996 wheat production is forecast at 531 000 tons, some 19 percent higher than last year and 2 percent above average.
Harvesting of the 1995 coarse grains crop is complete. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in December forecast the output at 3.3 million tons, including some 2.8 million tons of sorghum and 529 000 tons of millet, which is 26 percent lower than the exceptional crop of the previous year though 2 percent above average. Production declined due to a reduction in planting and yields of both cereals. Diversion of land to more profitable cash crops, reduced credit availability and poor rainfall at the beginning of the season resulted in a decline in area planted of both cereals, while changes in the crop rotation in irrigated schemes also affected planting of sorghum. Yields, particularly of millet, decreased due to poor mid-season rains, pest damage and a higher intensity of weed infestation than normal.
Aggregate cereal production in 1995/96 is forecast at some 3.9 million tons, 22 percent lower than 1994/95 though slightly above average. At this level, production of coarse grains is estimated to be sufficient to cover overall consumption requirements, though only limited exports are forecast this year. Imports of cereals in 1996 will be limited to some 519 000 tons of wheat for which the country has a structural deficit.
However, a substantial drop in production in North and West Kordofan and in North Darfur will result in food deficit in these areas, which is anticipated to be covered by commercial grain movement from surplus areas of the country. However, the situation should be carefully monitored. If the terms of trade between livestock and cereals deteriorate, assistance may be needed to support the movement of grain from surplus areas to the west.
Despite the fact that the overall food supply situation is satisfactory, some 78 000 tons of food aid will still be required in 1996 for war-affected and displaced persons in the south and transitional zones, as well as for the vulnerable population, mainly women and children enrolled in supplementary feeding programmes. The food aid requirements include emergency, programme and project food aid, not including assistance to Eritrean and Ethiopian refugees in eastern Sudan.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 “Vuli” (short) rains cereal crops in the northern bi-modal rainfall areas is well advanced. The outlook is generally favourable. Abundant rainfall during the growing season over the Lake Victoria basin and northern coastal areas benefited crop development. However, dry spells in the north-eastern highlands are likely to result in crop reduction in these areas.
The 1995/96 aggregate production of cereals is estimated at 4.6 million tons, some 31 percent higher than in the previous year and above average. Reflecting the good 1995/96 cereal harvest, imports in marketing year 1995/96 (June/May) will be limited to some 45 000 tons of wheat. By contrast, exports of maize and rice are expected to reach 100 000 tons and 15 000 tons respectively.
Despite a satisfactory food supply situation, food aid assistance is required for some 307 000 persons in regions affected by successive crop failures in previous seasons. Food aid assistance is also required for about 630 000 refugees from Rwanda and Burundi.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 second season cereal crop is well advanced and the outlook is favourable. The area planted is estimated to be normal. Despite dry spells during November, adequate precipitation in January allowed crop recovery. Rainfall during the season has also been favourable for pastures and livestock which are reported to be in good condition.
The output of the main season crop, harvested earlier in the year was above average and aggregate cereal production in 1995 is estimated to be 4 percent above the previous year and a record 2.1 million tons. Maize output increased 5 percent to 950 000 tons, whilst the production of millet and sorghum increased by 2 percent to 672 000 tons and 398 000 tons respectively. Production of potatoes, sweet potatoes and plantains also increased from 1994 but that of cassava and beans declined despite higher plantings.
The food supply is satisfactory.