Despite destruction caused by a prolonged war, agriculture remains the main sector of the economy. Almost three-quarters of the total population are directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. However, the output from this sector continues to be limited by short supply of agricultural inputs, damage and lack of maintenance of the irrigation network, destruction of production assets and persistent insecurity. For several years production of cereals has lagged well behind requirements. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 1995 was again below normal, due to shortages of agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers and improved seeds.
A Consolidated United Nations Inter-Agency Appeal for Emergency Humanitarian and Rehabilitation Assistance to Afghanistan has been launched to meet the requirements of the people affected by emergencies in urban and rural areas, the internally displaced and refugees returning from neighbouring countries. This Appeal covers the period October 1995 to September 1996 and it is valued at U.S.$ 124 million.
On 31 January an earthquake struck three villages south-east of Maimana, in the province of Faryab. The same villages had been severely damaged by an earthquake three years ago. No casualties are reported, but 500 families were displaced and a total of about 650 houses have been damaged or completely destroyed. While an assessment of needs is being made, emergency relief goods have been provided by UNICEF.
The cereal import requirement in 1995/96, mostly wheat, is forecast at 1.3 million tons. The food aid programme for 1996 amounts to 180 000.
Transplanting of 'boro' rice, for harvest in May-June, is almost complete and the official production target for the crop, currently stands at 6.8 million tons (milled basis), which is some 4 percent higher than production last year, during which output was hampered by drought and a shortage of fertilizers. The official estimates for Aus and Aman rice production (milled basis) in 1995, are 1.65 and 7.99 million tons, some 8 percent and 6 percent lower respectively than the previous year. Total estimated rice production in 1995/96, is ,therefore, estimated at 16.44 million tons, which would represent an overall decline of some 2 percent over 1994/95. Although reduced paddy production in the current marketing year is partly attributed to flood losses in 1995, recent studies indicate that long term paddy cultivation in intensively cultivated areas is under threat from depletion of soil nutrients, which require increasing quantities of fertilizers to maintain output.
The production target for the wheat crop, to be harvested in March - April, has been set at 1.2 million tons, some 8 percent below last year's record harvest.
Due to the adverse effect of floods in 1995, large imports of rice and wheat were necessary to stabilize prices, which had risen appreciably. The Government food stock position in December 1995, as a result is better than in the corresponding period a year before. At the end of December, total foodgrain stocks stood at 955 000 tons, 51 percent up on 1994, of which 400 000 tons were rice and 555 000 tons wheat.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Cambodia from 14 to 27 January 1996 to estimate 1995/96 production of wet and dry season rice and evaluate the overall outlook for cereals in 1996. The Mission reviewed data from various sources, including Government, FAO project TCP/CMB/4452 and a survey of communes undertaken by WFP, FAO and the Cambodian Red Cross. In addition, discussions were held with Government, UN agencies, donors and NGOs at central, provincial and local levels. In the course of its assessment, the Mission visited three major rice growing provinces; Stem Reap, Takeo and Prey Veng.
The Mission estimated production of the main, wet season, rice crop in 1995/96 at 2.785 million tons and forecast output of the second, dry season, crop at 0.533 million tons, giving a total 3.318 million tons, some 40 percent above estimated production in 1994/95 and 30 percent higher than average for the preceding five years. Exceptional rice production in 1995/96, was attributed to favourable rainfall over large parts of the country and an increase in the use of fertilizers, which together encouraged an expansion in planting and favoured crop development. The national requirement of rice, for consumption and other uses, in 1996 was estimated at 1.918 million tons. As there were no known stocks carried over from the previous year, total rice availability in the country in 1996 was estimated to be the same as total output, i.e. 3.318 million tons of paddy or 2 057 million tons of rice leaving a surplus of 139 000 tons.
In view of the surplus, the Government had expressed plans to export some 100 000 tons of rice in 1996. However, the Mission felt exports were ill-advised at this stage for the following reasons. In spite of the overall surplus, parts of the country remain food deficit and continue to need assistance. It is estimated that 21 percent of communes, in main rice producing provinces, were affected by floods in 1995, which resulted in a significant loss of crops. As a result a large section of the population is these areas will face food shortage in 1996. A total of 291 communes were affected, of which 232 are chronically food deficit. Vulnerable people in many food deficit areas have limited resources to purchase food and will need support. Due to a reduced harvest in 1994/95, farm level stocks in many areas are depleted and need to be replenished. Due to cross border trade, the extent of which is unknown, the actual level of surplus is likely to be lower than that estimated.
The number of vulnerable people in the 291 communes facing food shortages is yet to be ascertained. An assessment is currently being made by WFP in association with the Cambodian Red Cross and other agencies. The number may be fairly large and the total quantity of cereals required may be substantial. However, in the interim, assuming no widespread displacement of people, the Mission estimated that some 60 000 tons of rice and 3 000 tons of other commodities would be needed in 1996 to support the most vulnerable people in various communes. This is sufficient for supporting 1.56 million people, discounting institutional feeding and training activities, for about three months. As of 1 January 1996, WFP held stocks of 13 151 tons of rice and had secured additional pledges of 36 800 tons from donors, amounting to 49 951 tons. This leaves a shortfall of some 10 000 tons needed to make up the 60 000 tons required. In addition, the Mission recommended that Government, with donor support, purchases and keeps a stock of some 25 000 tons of rice for emergencies and also suggested that WFP and bilateral donors make local purchases for programmes to assist vulnerable people.
An earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, around Lijiang in Yunnan province on 3 February, killed more than 250 people and caused substantial damage to property and infrastructure. A large relief operation is underway, with participation from Government services and the red cross, especially in the supply of medicines which are reported to be in short supply. The full extent of damage to agriculture, however, is yet unclear.
The prospects for the winter wheat crop remain uncertain, reflecting inadequate precipitation in most parts. Recent official reports, anticipate drought this spring in the north, as a result of higher than normal temperatures and low rainfall. In 1995, a severe drought occurred in the north after rainfall fell to between 20 and 30 percent below normal.
The aggregate output of foodgrains in 1995, including soyabeans, pulses, tubers and roots, has been revised up from 455 million tons estimated earlier, to a record 460 million tons. The target for 1996 production currently stands at 462.5 million tons. To further boost food production, it is anticipated that state purchase prices of grains will soon be raised significantly.
In the past two years, the country has become a significant importer of foodgrains. Official estimates put the level of wheat, maize and rice imports in 1995 at 11.6, 5.2 and 1.64 million tons respectively. A similar level of wheat import is anticipated in the 1995/96 marketing year.
Below-normal rainfall since the beginning of the crop season favoured sowing of the wheat and barley crops, due for harvest from June, but resulted in inadequate soil moisture level. The area planted to winter grains is reported to be similar to last year's level of 63 000 hectares.
Production of cereals in 1995, estimated at 140 000 tons was about 12 percent less than in the previous year but about average.
Imports of cereals, mostly wheat and barley, in 1995/96 (May/April) are forecast to increase by about 10 percent to 480 000 tons.
A sizable portion of the rabi, winter, crop (mainly wheat) has received below normal rainfall in the current season. In the period 1 October 1995 to 31 January 1996, of the 35 sub- divisions monitored, 19, accounting for 93 percent of total wheat production had received below normal rainfall compared to 14 sub-divisions, accounting for 52 percent of production in the same period in the pervious year. However, favourable monsoon rains last year have enhanced irrigation supplies and soil moisture levels, on which the performance of rabi crops depends considerably.
After a serious delay in last year�s monsoon, cumulative rainfall over the season was good and the country enjoyed its eighth successive monsoon with normal or above normal rainfall. The official estimate for kharif rice production is 71.4 million tons and aggregate food grain production (including milled rice and pulses) a record 192 million tons in 1994/95, over 9 million tons higher than in the previous year. Most of the increase, 6 million tons, was in wheat.
The overall food supply situation is favourable, reflecting large cereal stocks. Total stock of wheat and rice held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) on January 1 1996, were estimated at some 28 million tons, which is double the statutory requirement of 14 million tons. However, the high levels of stocks are above the carrying capacity of the FCI, necessitating substantial quantities to be stored in open areas, where significant losses occur due to weather and pest damage. To take advantage of high international prices of grains, the government has allowed the export of 3.0 million tons of common and superfine rice and 2.5 million tons of wheat from stocks held by the FCI. So far it is estimated that some 1.4 million tons of rice have been exported. However, there is official recognition that improvements in infrastructure and port facilities coupled with grain quality are necessary to enhance the overall performance of the grain export sector.
The prospects for the main rice crop, at flowering or grain formation stages, were affected by flood damage in Java and Sumatra islands. Continuous rainfall from late December to early January, caused the worst floods since 1926 and 1933 in east and north Aceh respectively in Sumatra. Some 40 200 households were affected in 24 sub-districts, 18 people died and property and crops were damaged. Floods also affected some 50 500 household in various districts of Jarkata. Provisional estimates indicate that some 2 900 hectares of paddy were destroyed in west Java. Earlier, eight people died following a tidal wave after an earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale hit Sulawesi island.
The official estimate for paddy production in 1995 is 48.45 million tons, which was slightly below target, though some 4 percent higher than 1994 and the moving average of the past 5 years.
Low carry over stocks from the previous year and restricted flow of rice from domestic supplies, due to lower than market intervention prices, meant that stocks held by the National Logistics Agency (BULOG) have remained not only below the target of 2 million tons but also the 1 million tons considered necessary to maintain price stability. It is estimated that the country will import some 2 million tons of rice in the 1995/96 marketing year.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (30 January)
Floods and heavy snow in central and southern parts of the country in December, cut off hundreds of villages and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and agriculture. Total economic damage was estimated at some 6 million dollars, though the full extent of the damage to crops is not known
The prospects for the wheat and barley crops are reported to be favourable. The aggregate production of cereals in 1995 is estimated at a record 17.4 million tons, similar to 1994 and some 12 percent above the moving average for the previous five years. Compared to 1994, wheat and rice production were similar and around 11.5 and 2.5 million tons respectively, whilst the output of coarse grains increased by some 3 percent to 3.4 million tons.
The prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest are uncertain. Reflecting Government efforts to encourage farmers to produce more grains, the area planted is expected to increase from last year's below average level. However, yield potential is likely to be constrained again this season by serious shortages of fertilizers, spare parts for agricultural machinery and other agricultural inputs. Despite favourable weather, production of cereals in 1995 is estimated at 2.5 million tons, 10 percent lower than the previous year and some 16 percent below average.
The food supply situation remains critical mainly due to difficulties encountered by the Government in financing imports. The problem has been exacerbated by the economic decline, due to the oil embargo, which is having a serious effect on the food and nutrition status of the population. Beginning December 1995 the Government has increased wheat flour and vegetable oil rations. The monthly ration for wheat flour has been raised by one kg to seven kg per person and vegetable oil from 625 grams to 750 grams. However, even with this increase the food ration covers less than half the food energy needs.
The recent decision of the Iraqi Government to discuss the implementation of the Security Council Resolution related to the terms for limited oil sales, resulted in a decrease in food prices and a sharp appreciation of the Iraqi Dinar against the U.S. dollar.
On 20 January the price of rice fell by ID 350 per kg to ID 950 per kg; wheat flour to ID 450 per kg from ID 600 per kg and sugar by ID 400 to ID 1 300 per kg. Nevertheless these prices remain well above the purchasing power of the majority of the population. From the previous rate of U.S.$ 1 = ID 3 000, the exchange rate on 3 February was quoted at U.S.$ 1 = ID 500. This compares with the pre-Gulf crises official rate of U.S.$ 3 = ID 1.
The findings of an FAO Mission, which visited the country between July and September 1995, suggest that malnutrition is widespread and getting worse with classical clinical signs of nutrition deficiencies commonly observed. There are large numbers of marasmus and kwashiorkor and other problems related to vitamin and mineral deficiency. Initial estimates of anthropometric data collected by the Mission on children under five from Baghdad suggest that 12 percent are wasted (more than 2 SD below the reference weight-for-height) and 28 percent stunted (more than 2 SD more than the reference height-for-age). Comparisons with 1991 show that there has been a dramatic increase in malnutrition with wasting rising four times and stunting having more than doubled. The situation is believed to be worse in the South and in pockets of the North. Adults appear to be less affected but with ever dwindling resources, households may soon be unable to cope. Widespread famine has been prevented largely by an efficient public rationing system which provides about 1 000 Kcals per day. However, the system is unsustainable and its collapse would have disastrous consequences for nutrition and health. Cholera, typhoid fever and dysentery are also on the increase and could result in future epidemics.
WFP is targeting 2.1 million beneficiaries under a new Emergency Operation. The net requirement for the period October 1995 to March 1996 was about 121 000 tons of food.
The prospects for the 1996 wheat crop are uncertain due to below-normal rainfall. Domestic production in normal years covers about one-third of total wheat requirement, the rest being imported by private mill owners under import licenses. Recently the Government has decided to allow flour mills to import wheat from any origin.
Due to an increase in area planted and favourable weather conditions, production of wheat in 1995 increased sharply to an above-average level of 250 000 tons.
The import of cereals in 1995/96 (October/September) is estimated at about 2.6 million tons, which remains unchanged from the previous year.
Aggregate cereal production in 1995 is estimated at 14.2 million tons, some 10 percent lower than the previous year's bumper crop. The decline is almost entirely due to a fall in paddy production from 15 million tons in 1994 to 13.4 million tons in 1995.
Total cereal imports in 1995/96 are forecast to be similar to last year�s imports of some 27 million tons, including 6 million tons of wheat and 16 million tons of maize.
The sowing of 1996 winter grains was completed in December under generally favourable conditions. The area planted is reported to be average.
Production of wheat and barley in 1995, estimated at 84 000 tons and 52 000 tons respectively, was considerably higher than both the previous year and average. Reflecting a marked increase in the area planted, production of lentils more than doubled to 5 000 tons, while the potato crop increased by 18 000 tons to 108 000 tons, despite a reduction in the area planted.
Imports of wheat in 1995/96 (July/June) are forecast at 0.6 million tons, a decrease of about 100 000 tons compared with the previous year. Coarse grain imports, maize and barley, are estimated at 0.87 million tons, some 50 000 tons more than imports in 1994/95. Some 90 000 tons of rice is expected to be imported, which is slightly higher than the previous year.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (30 January)
The output of paddy in 1995 is officially estimated at some 6.4 million tons, some 500 000 tons below the harvest in 1994 and 10 percent below average for the past 5 years. This represents the smallest harvest in 15 years and is attributed to a greater than expected decline in planted area and lower yields due to flood damage last August in the central region and unfavourable weather in the later part of the growing season. Rice acreage declined to 1.056 million hectares in 1995 from 1.1 million hectares in 1994, a decline of 4.2 percent. The decline is consistent with the trend over the past several years and is partly attributed to a shift away from rice to more lucrative horticultural crops. The average yield, dropped to 4 450 kg/hectare in 1995, a relative decline of 3 percent over average yields of 4 590 kg/hectare in 1994. In an effort to offset projected decline in area cultivated, the ministry of agriculture, is developing new rice varieties with a target yield of 4 900 kg/hectare.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (31 January)
In July and August 1995, extensive floods affected agricultural production and substantially reduced the output of rice and maize. In addition to crop losses, significant damage occurred to the irrigation network, transport, property and the infrastructure generally. The fall in food production in 1995 follows five years of declining agricultural production and economic disruption caused by the collapse of concessional trade relations with the former USSR and China. The country, as a result, faces a very tight food supply situation. In response, an emergency operation (EMOP) for the supply of 20 250 tons of rice and 625 tons of vegetable oil, for 500 000 people, was jointly approved by FAO and WFP last October, based on the findings of an earlier UN Inter-agency mission in September. The donor response to the EMOP has been slow. At the request of Government, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission carried out an evaluation of the situation between 9 and 16 December to estimate cereal crop production and import requirements for 1996, including food aid.
The Mission estimated that, based on underlying trends, the country would have carried a substantial food deficit in 1996 even if the floods had not occurred. Structural economic problems have led to agricultural stagnation and have constrained the country�s ability to import food commercially. The balance of payments and liquidity problem of food imports have been compounded in the last two years by high international grain prices and the inability of China, a key supplier, to export large quantities of grain to the country, as it has also experienced reduced harvests necessitating large imports, notably in 1995.
Declining food availability has resulted in the downward revision of food rations and net draw-down of stocks. Based on the reduced level of calorie intake, the mission estimated a requirement of some 3.69 million tons of food grain in 1996, to meet human consumption alone. Including cereals for feed and other uses, the total grain requirement for 1996 was estimated at 5.99 million tons. Domestic production is estimated at 4.1 million tons, which after allowing for planned imports and food aid, already pledged or received, leaves an overall shortfall of some 1.16 million tons.
There is a need for emergency, project and programme food assistance as well as for international support for the rehabilitation of the agriculture sector to facilitate recovery from the floods. Farming communities with no established access to the Public Food Distribution System, young children and pregnant and nursing mothers are in most need of emergency food assistance. The total quantity of emergency food aid delivered so far for the 500 000 flood- affected people amounts to 5 140 tons of rice by WFP, 3 500 tons of rice from IFRC and 1 400 tons from Caritas. Additional funds have also been received by WFP recently for an estimated 9 000-10 000 tons of rice, though this still leaves a considerable shortfall in overall needs. Further food assistance is, therefore, still needed to avert impending hardship and possible starvation in the months ahead.
Last July/August, excessive rainfall and a series of typhoons caused serious floods in central and southern parts of the country, destroying 62 000 hectares of paddy. A subsequent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that a total of six provinces were affected, of which four faced serious food shortages and two severely reduced surpluses. The mission identified an overall food import requirement of 132 577 tons for 1996, of which 38 000 tons were needed as emergency food assistance, for 374 000 people for varying periods of 6 months to a year. Based on the findings of the mission an emergency operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in December 1995, for the supply of 10 800 tons of food assistance for 150 000 people for 6 months. The full emergency could not be covered by WFP due to serious resource constraints. Additional assistance, totalling 800 000 ECU for food and basic necessities, is also being provided by the European Union.
The sowing of the wheat and barley crops, due for harvest from June, was completed recently. Production of cereals in 1995, estimated at 73 000 tons, recovered from the previous year's poor crop but remained below average.
The imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 1995/96 (July/June) is forecast at some 750 000 tons, an increase of about 4 percent compared with previous year.
Harvesting of the main rice crop is underway in Sabah and will commence shortly in Saarawak. Aggregate paddy production for 1995 is estimated to have reached a record 2.2 million tons, marginally above last year and some 8 percent higher than the moving average of the past five years. Planting of the second rice crop, which normally accounts for around 38 percent of aggregate production will commence in late March/April. Rice imports for 1995/96 (July/June) are currently projected at 450 000 tons, similar to imports in the previous year.
The country�s agricultural sector and food production, continue to be hampered by serious shortages of fertilizers, herbicides, fuel, farm machinery and other inputs, due to the transition from a centrally planned economy to one which is market orientated. In addition, labour shortages are reported during key harvest operations, as the availability of free labour, has been substantially reduced.
Although there was a continual and substantial decline in area and production of wheat, the country�s main food grain, of some 53 percent in the period 1989 to 1994, the official estimate of 423 000 tons produced in 1995 shows a recovery of some 30 percent over the previous year. However, in spite of this recovery, the country cannot produce enough food to meet domestic requirement and has to rely on food assistance to bridge the deficit. The food supply situation, therefore, remains tight and the loss of traditional export markets in recent years, and the consequent loss of foreign exchange, mean that the country has limited potential to import food commercially.
The output of paddy in 1995 is estimated at a record 19.6 million tons, compared with the previous year's harvest of 18.2 million tons, a relative increase of some 8 percent. Production was also some 22 percent above the moving average of the past five years. The increase in production is partly attributed to an above average supply of fertilizers, which in 1995 had been enhanced through significant Government imports, though the official target to use some 1 million tons of fertilizer last year, is unlikely to have been met. Aggregate production was also enhanced by an increase in area planted from 5.9 million hectares in 1994 to 6.2 million hectares in 1995, an increase of 5 percent. Other measures to boost domestic production have included the introduction of farm machinery, improved farming techniques and provision of high yielding seed, which has enabled an increase in cropping intensity. There has also been an improvement in irrigation supply, notably in the Irrawaddy Delta.
As a result of higher trends in production, the Government has set an export target of 1.5 million tons for the current marketing year. This compares to estimated exports of some 1.03 million tons in the preceding year.
The aggregate output of cereals in 1995 is estimated at 5.8 million tons, some 430 000 tons, or 8 percent higher, than in 1994. There has been a general improvement in the availability of fertilizers in the country, following earlier shortages due to an export ban in Bangladesh. The targets for wheat, rice and maize production for 1995/96 are 1.05 million tons, 4 million tons and 1.36 million tons respectively.
Although there has been some improvement in the overall food supply situation in the country, as a result of higher than anticipated domestic production, some areas affected by earlier drought, continue to need food assistance. Total food aid pledges for the 1995/96 marketing year amount to some 35 000 tons, of which 18 000 tons have been delivered.
Scattered light showers in recent weeks over major agricultural areas, increased soil moisture levels and favoured developing rabi crops. The level and distribution of rainfall, coupled with low temperatures, particularly benefited the wheat crop, to be harvested from April onwards.
The official target for wheat production in 1995/96 is 17.4 million tons, compared to the 17 million tons harvested in the proceeding year.
Paddy output in 1995 is currently estimated at a bumper 6 million tons, similar to output in 1993 and some 16 percent higher than in 1994 and the moving average of the past five years. The production target (milled basis) for Basmati and IRRI-6 rice had been set at 1.32 million and 2.70 million tons respectively. The output of coarse grains declined by some 6 percent in 1995, to an estimated 1.8 million tons. This is attributed to a reduction of some 8 percent in area planted, mostly of millets and maize. The Rice Export Corporation (RECP) soon expects to export a total of 500 000 tons of IRRI-6 rice to various countries in Africa and Asia. In spite of a bumper crop in 1995, it is expected that the country will import some 2 million tons of wheat in the current marketing year, to meet domestic requirement.
Recent rainfall has delayed harvesting of the second rice crop. Floods and a series of typhoons in the latter part of 1995, coupled with earlier drought adversely affected crop production last year. There was also a slight reduction in the area planted of paddy and maize, compared to 1994. The estimate for aggregate paddy production has been revised down to 10.2 million tons, some 500 000 tons less than earlier forecast and over a million tons less than forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture at the beginning of 1995. At the revised level, 1995 production is 3 percent lower than the previous year, though some 4 percent above the moving average for the past five years. The estimate for 1995 maize production has also been revised down, by some 10 percent from earlier forecast, and currently stands at 4.16 million tons, nearly 550 000 tons below normal.
As a result of the fall in domestic crop production, the country has had to import substantial amounts of food grain to stabilize domestic prices.
With the objective of limiting the use of non-renewable ground water and cutting the subsidy on wheat production, the Government continued its policy of tight control of wheat farming permits in 1995/96. Each farmer can only receive government support prices for wheat and barley within quotas assigned to them by the Grain Silos and Flour Mills Organization (GSFMO). The quotas allocated for 1996 wheat and barley total 1.3 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. This reductions in quotas follows the decision taken earlier by the Government to reduce the purchase price of wheat by SR 500 to SR 1 500 (U.S.$ 400) per ton. The purchase price for barley was kept unchanged at SR 1 000 (U.S.$ 266.7) per ton.
Production of wheat in 1995, officially estimated at 2.5 million tons, remained higher than domestic consumption estimated at some 1.8 million tons. Hence, exports will continue in 1995/96.
Reflecting the decline in wheat output, exports of wheat which averaged 2.1 million tons in the three years ending June 1995, are expected to fall sharply in 1995/96 and to end completely by 1996/97. Aerial and ground control operations against swarms of hopper bands of Desert Locusts treated nearly 39 000 hectares during January.
Substantially below normal rainfall since October and a shortage of fertilizers, especially in the north is expected to significantly reduce output of the main Maha rice crop due for harvest in March/April. Following two years of favourable production, unconfirmed reports forecast a reduction in the crop of between 25 and 50 percent in the north and 20 to 25 percent in the south, which has been less affected. Deficient rainfall has also reduced irrigation reservoir levels considerably and there are reports of water rationing in order to maintain levels at the minimum required for hydro electric generation.
Although there has been a reduction in civil strife around Jaffna in the north, there are a large number of internally displaced people (IDPs). Latest estimates indicated that there are some 150 000 IDPs in the Jaffna Peninsula and a further 487 000 in Vanni Region on the mainland, of whom 325 000 are recent and 162 000 long term displaced people. A recent survey by the ICRC among the displaced indicates that 31 percent of children living in welfare centres and 25 percent living outside the centres were suffering from moderate malnutrition. The Government reports that a total of 980 387 people in the whole country were receiving dry rations as of 31 December 1995, up from 705 453 at the end of October. Of those receiving rations, 260 389 were categorized as being economically affected and the balance as being displaced. The influx of the 325 000 recent arivees in Vanni, has placed tremendous pressure on the health services of the region, which were already considered poor and under resourced in comparison to the rest of the country. The UNHCR recently suspended assistance to displaced persons in the Northern Province due to security problems. Assistance to displaced persons in the Kilinochchi, Mullaittivu and Vavuniya area came to a standstill on 22 January
The overall food supply situation nevertheless remains satisfactory, reflecting favourable rice harvests in the past two years and a favourable government stock position. Rice imports in 1995 were the lowest since the 1950s and it is reported that the country also exported some rice to other Asian countries. The Government has increased the price of wheat flour gradually in recent months to reduce the level of subsidy and achieve greater parity with international prices. It has also reduced the subsidy to restore the relationship between the domestic price of wheat and rice, which farmers had had difficulty in marketing because of subsidized wheat flour and bread prices, which had increased their consumption.
The prospects for the winter grains crops to be harvested from mid-May are favourable reflecting normal weather conditions.
Production of wheat in 1995 is estimated at 4 millon tons, some 13 percent higher than previous year. Barley output increased by 15 percent to 1.7 million tons, while maize production, estimated at about 215 000 tons, was some 143 000 tons less than in the previous year.
Wheat flour imports in 1995/96 (July/June) are forecast at 350 000 tons, which remain unchanged from 1994/95. Maize imports are forecast to decline by about 100 000 tons to 200 000 tons. The availability of barley for export in 1995/96 is forecast at some 600 000 tons. A barter agreement for the export of 200 000 tons of barley in exchange for Jordanian cement has been concluded.
The aggregate output of paddy in 1995 is estimated at 21 million tons, of which some 81 percent is estimated from the main rice crop which was recently harvested. Total rice production in 1995 was above average and similar to 1994, despite extensive floods in August/September last year, which destroyed large crop areas.
Due to increased demand for rice imports from other Asian countries, it is estimated that the country exported some 6 million tons in 1995, some 25 percent above the government target of 4.8 million tons. Recently, the Food Policy Committee, reduced the import tax on maize to 3 percent, from the normal tariff rate of 7.5 percent, for an overall quota of 550 000 tons. This is to allow additional imports in 1996 to meet anticipated demand in the animal feed industry. The imports will be allowed from mid-February to the end of June, before locally produced maize comes on to the market.
Following normal to above-normal precipitation the state of the wheat and barley crops to be harvested from June are reported to be satisfactory. The Government support prices are announced early in each harvest season and raised in monthly increments. For wheat, prices vary depending on variety.
The initial support prices for wheat in 1995/96 have been fixed at U.S.$ 236 per ton for Anatolian durum wheat, U.S.$ 155 per ton for hard white wheat and U.S.$ 140 per ton for semi-hard red wheat. The support price for barley was fixed at U.S.$ 110 per ton and that of maize at U.S.$ 133 per ton. The monthly increases have been fixed at about U.S.$ 10 per ton for wheat and U.S.$ 6 per ton for barley and maize. Reflecting generally favourable conditions, production of wheat in 1995 recovered to 18 million tons. Although still below-average and sharply less than the earlier forecast of 21 million tons, it is still some 500 000 tons more than the poor crop in the previous year. Unseasonal rains throughout the country towards the end of the growing season and pest damage in southern areas adversely affected yield.
In August 1995 the Government decided to abolish the levy of U.S.$ 20 per ton on imported wheat to allow private traders to import larger quantities of high-quality wheat and meet domestic demand for millers and pasta producers. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) was already exempt from this levy.
Recently the Government has raised the import surcharge on rice imports from U.S.$ 5 per ton (which had been reduced from U.S.$ 50 per ton in December 1994) to U.S.$ 30 per ton.
Exports of wheat and wheat flour in 1995/96 (June/May) are currently forecast at 1.3 million tons compared with 1.8 million tons exported in the previous year. Imports of quality bread milling and durum wheat are expected to increase to 1.2 million tons compared with 0.7 million tons received in 1994/95.
The official estimate for total rice and other grain output for 1995 has been revised to 27.5 million tons, some 5 percent higher than 1994 and 17 percent higher than the moving average of the past five years. Paddy production is estimated at 25.5 million tons, slightly above output in the previous year, despite typhoons and heavy flooding earlier in the season, in important producing areas in the Mekong Delta and central provinces.
It is estimated that the country exported some 2.2 million tons of rice last year, some 7 percent higher than in 1994.
The planting of the winter wheat, barley and maize crops due for harvest later in the year continue under generally favourable weather conditions. The area sown is reported to be average.
The aggregate output from the main sorghum and millet crops harvested at the end of 1995 is expected to be similar to the previous year's above-average level of 0.5 million tons.
Production of sorghum in 1994, estimated at 0.44 million tons, was 21 000 tons less than the previous year but above average. Output from the millet and maize crops, estimated at 54 000 tons and 69 000 tons respectively, were both slightly lower than in 1993. Barley production was virtually unchanged from the previous year's level of 63 000 tons, while wheat outturn increased by 11 000 tons to 171 000 tons.
Imports of cereals in 1995 - mainly wheat - is estimated at about 2 million tons, an increase of some 19 percent compared with 1994.