The area sown to winter grains, mainly wheat, is expected to have increased in response to high cereal prices. However, arable land is limited, soil fertility is low and shortages of essential inputs including fertilizer and fuel limit farmers' ability to increase output rapidly. As a result, cereal production in 1996 is expected to remain substantially below the minimum annual requirement of 700 000 tons, in spite of some increase expected over the 1995 output of 265 000 tons.
Compared to a cereal import requirement of 425 000 tons, including 395 000 tons of food aid, in 1995/96, the country has received food aid pledges of some 250 000 tons. As over half of this quantity is scheduled for delivery in February/March 1996, pipeline supplies are adequate to meet demand for bread grain provided they arrive in the coming months. Programme food aid, currently sold at a discount to state bakeries, is a vital source of bread for the bulk of the population who cannot afford high free market prices for wheat flour, which is equivalent to U.S.$ 600 per ton in Yerevan market.
For 1996, WFP is targeting 250 000 people comprising refugees, IDPs, socially vulnerable people such as single/disabled persons, orphans, children/elderly in institutions, pregnant and nursing mothers and the destitute. Relief food requirements for the WFP beneficiaries in 1996 are estimated at around 21 500 tons. With carryover pledges estimated at some 7 500 tons, the shortfall for 1996 is forecast at 14 000 tons. An UN-DHA Inter-Agency Mission, in which FAO and WFP will participate, will be reassessing the food situation and emergency needs in February/March.
The 1995/96 cereal supply situation remains tight and could deteriorate unless substantial imports are mobilized soon. However, the import capacity of the country is limited by a deep recession and by budget and foreign exchange constraints. The 1995 grain harvest is officially estimated to be only 878 000 tons, which is below average and 15 percent less than in 1994. Given a minimum grain requirement of 1.7 million tons in 1995/96, the country needs to import 660 000 tons. Against an estimated food aid requirement of 350 000 tons, the country has received food aid pledges of nearly 175 000 tons so far, though up to 30 000 tons may not arrive before June 1996. The government supplements food aid allocations with substantial commercial imports, but high international prices and tight supplies also in neighbouring states have exacerbated the budget constraint. The actual level of commercial imports to date is not known with certainty but indications are that it is less than planned.
Food aid requirements for a target group of 225 000 displaced and vulnerable people, assisted by WFP with supplementary food rations, are fully met until the end of the 1995/96 UN appeal period, i.e. 31 May 1996. A UN-DHA Inter-Agency Mission with FAO and WFP participation will visit the country in late February to assess needs for the upcoming 1996/97 appeal period.
The early outlook for the 1996 harvest is satisfactory so far. The planting of wintercrop was completed under favourable conditions and the area sown to wheat and rye is estimated to have increased by 4 percent to nearly 1.1 million hectares.
Prospects for increased cereal production in 1996 have improved following the leasing of most government held land to private farmers in 1995. This is expected to result in an increase in areas planted to grains and better cultivation techniques. Although the shortage of necessary inputs, including improved seed, fuel and credit together with a breakdown of mechanization are likely to restrict yield, some increase in output is anticipated. Current high prices for cereals and tight wheat supply are also likely to motivate farmers to increase output.
The bread supply situation beyond March is causing concern as confirmed food aid pledges fall short of requirements. Delivery times are uncertain and the country's commercial import capacity is limited to about 50 000 tons of grains per annum. Given a 1995 grain harvest of 560 000 tons, the cereal import requirement in 1995/96 is estimated at 550 000 tons of which about 500 000 tons needs to be supplied as food aid. Against this requirement confirmed food aid pledges amount to 234 000 tons, most of which are scheduled to be delivered by February/March 1996, leaving an empty supply pipeline until the harvest begins in July. Although an additional allocation of up to 100 000 tons has been reported, rapid shipment cannot be guaranteed at this stage.
WFP requirements (to cover supplementary food aid needs for 320 000 targeted beneficiaries) during the remainder of the UN Appeal period ending 31 May 1996 are 3 400 tons. Emergency food aid needs for the next 1996/97 UN Appeal period will be assessed by a joint UN Inter-Agency Assessment Mission in late February 1996 in which both FAO and WFP will participate.
The very minor winter grain crop has been planted. However, the bulk of the crop ( some 17.5 million hectares) will not be sown until the spring, about May. The target for 1996 harvest is 18 million tons, from an area of about 18 million hectares. This is almost twice the drought reduced level of 1995, officially estimated at 9.5 million tons. Achievement of this target will depend crucially on weather conditions but also on an improvement in the terms of trade for farmers and more particularly the availability of working capital on farm to purchase essential inputs. Agricultural credit is inadequate. Farmers have to pay free market prices for inputs but tend to receive low prices for output and are rarely paid fully in cash. Lack of adequate market structures, coupled with very little access to market/price information as well as long distances between growing areas and major markets, also tend to reduce farm income and motivation to produce.
In 1995, wheat production fell to 6.5 million tons, coarse grains to 2.8 million tons and paddy to less than 200 000 tons. Despite the very poor harvest, the country has adequate supplies of cereals to meet domestic demand. However, availability for export is likely to be limited to between 1-2 million tons. In view of tight export supplies, preference may be given to importers who can pay in cash or in needed goods, to the detriment of neighbouring food- deficit States: the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan.
The area sown to cereals, and particularly wheat, has risen steadily in the last five years, though yields have fallen. In addition, over 20 percent of the area sown in 1995 was not harvested due to adverse weather and crop failures and increasing problems with farm power. As a result the 1995 harvest fell sharply to an estimated 990 000 tons from a harvested area of just over 500 000 hectares. The outlook for the 1996 harvest is also not good. Field observers estimate that the area sown to winter grains is less than the 234 000 hectares sown in the autumn of 1994 due to a combination of lack of credit, cash, a shortage of inputs and increasingly unserviceable machinery. As the same problems are expected to hinder spring grain planting, the outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest remains poor.
The minimum cereal import requirement for 1995/96 is now estimated to be about 200 000 tons of wheat. Budget constraints do not permit a continuation of commercial wheat imports even at the reduced level of recent years. Compared to an estimated food aid requirement of nearly 120 000 tons, donors have pledged 106 000 tons to date.
The early outlook for the winter grain crop is satisfactory but final outcome will depend crucially on weather conditions until the harvest in July. The 1995 grain harvest is estimated at 2.3 million tons. Wheat imports in 1995/96 are expected to decline to about 50 000 tons (mainly high gluten wheat to supplement domestic low gluten wheat for breadmaking) and the country plans to export some 200 000- 300 000 tons of wheat to other CIS countries.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (4 February)
Early prospects for the 1996 winter grains are satisfactory and currently a recovery in output is anticipated. The areas sown to winter wheat and rye have increased sharply, by 22 and 45 percent to 10 and 3.7 million hectares respectively. The area of winter barley declined marginally to 460 000 hectares from 467 000 hectares. Crops on 1.4 million hectares entered dormancy in less than satisfactory condition, compared to nearly 3 million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year. Snow cover has generally been adequate to protect the dormant crop during spells of extreme cold. The area ploughed in the autumn, in preparation for spring planting has also increased marginally to 41.1 million hectares. The target for the 1996 harvest is 77-80 million tons, substantially higher than the near-record poor crop in 1995, which is officially estimated at 63.5 million tons.
Domestic procurement of grains for the 1995 crop is progressing very slowly. Against the target of 8.6 million tons, less than 1 million tons have been purchased, mainly due to financial constraints. The cereal supply situation in 1995/96 is tighter than it has been for many years. The country had already imported at least 2 million tons of wheat by early February. However, additional imports will continue to be limited by the availability of credit, and of funds for cash transactions by the private sector. As a result, cereal imports (including intra-trade) could total only about 4.8 million tons, only 1.4 million tons more than estimated imports in 1994/95. Imports of wheat are projected at around 4 million tons, including 2.5 million tons million tons from sources outside the CIS.
WFP will field a Mission to the Chechnya region in mid- February 1996 to reassess the need for continued provision of emergency food aid to Chechnian IDPs beyond March 1996. At present, WFP is implementing a winter food aid programme of 2 400 tons of mixed food commodities to Chechnian IDPs in Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Daghestan.
The food supply situation is serious and the outlook for the 1996 harvest is unfavourable. Wheat has been planted wherever possible in rural areas but yields are expected to continue declining, due to the slow pace of land transfer to private farmers for foodcrop production, lack of quality seed, fuel, spare parts, the breakdown of mechanization, and the increasing use of marginal land.
In 1995/96 the minimum cereal import requirement is estimated by FAO at 530 000 tons, mainly wheat and wheat substitutes. In the first seven months of the current marketing year (July 1995-January 1996), indications are that the country imported only 160 000 tons and has virtually exhausted domestic supplies of foodgrains from its 1995 harvest. Even so, minimum human consumption needs, estimated at 300 grams per person per day, have only been partially met. In the remaining 5 months of the current marketing year, given food consumption needs of 50 000 tons of wheat per month, the country needs a minimum of 250 000 tons. Against this, only some 70 000 tons of food aid are expected, leaving a gap of 180 000 tons to be covered until end June 1996. Deep recession, rapid devaluation of the Tajik rouble and debts in excess of GDP severely constrain the country's capacity to mobilize this amount commercially, whether within the CIS or outside. There is, therefore, an urgent need to increase food aid allocation to the country and to step up deliveries of pledged quantities. In addition, the country urgently needs international assistance to increase domestic wheat production. In the first instance, the provision of suitable wheat seed in time for spring planting would help redress the decline in yields and increase rural food security.
WFP and NGOs are assisting a target group of about 400 000 most needy people with relief food. The current pipeline of relief food will not cover needs beyond April, and donors are urged to make further contributions to ensure that relief distributions to vulnerable groups can continue.
Total relief food needs for 1996 are estimated at around 50 000 tons, similar to 1995 levels. With WFP carryover stocks and pledges for 1996 of 8 200 tons, the shortfall for 1996 is estimated at 25 000 tons.
Information on cereal production levels is conflicting. Estimates for the 1994 harvest range from 831 000 tons to 1.1 million tons, depending on sources. Output in 1995 was initially put at 1.2 million tons, against a target of 1.5 million tons, but it is unlikely that this has been achieved. Farmers have increased the area planted of wheat for subsistence purposes, initially by diverting land from cotton production, but more recently by reducing feedgrain and fodder areas and crop rotation. Yields have declined steadily in recent years due to economic reasons and as a result of water shortages. As the government is experiencing difficulty in obtaining payment for gas exported to other CIS countries, it is becoming increasingly difficult to adequately finance agricultural production on state farms. The cereal supply situation is tight and the government is experiencing difficulties in providing even the reduced ration of 8 kg of flour per person per month.
Domestic cereal utilization in 1995/96 is estimated to decline to some 1.5 million tons, as a result of a disappointing cereal harvest estimated at about 1 million tons, limited commercial import capacity and reduced export availability in neighbouring Kazakhstan.
The early outlook for winter grains is favourable. The area sown increased to 7.1 million hectares from 6.8 million hectares and crops are reported to be in satisfactory condition, though some winterkill has occurred. The final estimate of 1995 production has been lowered to 35 million tons, similar to the poor harvest in the preceding year. However, the Ministry of Agriculture has indicated that since private farmers do not report output accurately , the harvest could have been somewhat larger.
The 1995 cereal production is adequate to meet domestic food and (declining) feed needs in 1995/96 and the country is likely to export up to 2 million tons of cereals, mainly wheat.
The early outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is satisfactory . The area under wheat has expanded steadily and has almost doubled since 1990 in an effort to achieve wheat self- sufficiency. Initially the expansion has been mainly at the expense of cotton and fodder crops. but further increases will have to come through better crop rotation and from yield increases, which are more difficult to achieve. Cereal production in 1995 is officially put at nearly 2.7 million tons, including some 1.7 million tons of wheat.
Cereal import requirement has decreased steadily from a peak of about 5 million tons per annum prior to independence to an estimated 2.4 million tons of mainly wheat in 1995/96. Of this only about 700 000 tons is expected to be mobilized from within the CIS.
The aggregate 1995 cereal crop is estimated at 178 million tons, 3 million tons up from the aggregate output of the 15 member states in the previous year. Early prospects for the 1996 cereal crops are generally satisfactory and crops are mostly reported to be in good condition so far. Winter wheat plantings are reported to have increased significantly in major producing countries following a reduction of area restrictions and favourable autumn weather. In France, the soft wheat area is forecast to expand by 6 percent, while an increase of 3 percent is projected in both Germany and the United Kingdom. In Spain, heavy rains in December greatly improved prospects for winter crops and spring sowing and signal that the devastating drought over the last five years may have ended.
Latest reports confirm that cereal production fell in 1995. Faced with the prospect of continuing low returns from traditional cereal crops, farmers are reported to have diverted land to non-cereal cash crops. Wheat production is officially estimated at about 420 000 tons compared to 460 000 tons in 1994. However, the bulk of production remains in the hands of farmers for their own use, with little being available for domestic millers. As a result, many mills are reported to have closed.
As consumption pattern in the country has not changed and the state no longer has wheat in reserve, the country will need to import at least the same quantity of wheat in 1995/96 as in the previous year (about 300 000 tons) in order to meet the basic needs of the population. The government has already purchased 30 000 tons of wheat from neighbouring Romania, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. However, the bulk of the remaining import requirement will probably have to be covered by food aid. Romania has offered to ship a further 10 000 tons of wheat as food aid, and in late December, the United States announced that they would donate about 25 000 tons of wheat to the country.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (1 February)
Prospects for the 1996 winter wheat crop are satisfactory. Growing conditions are favourable due to good weather in the past months and area planted is estimated to have increased over last year. The expansion has occurred mainly in central parts of the country following progressive normalisation of the political situation and improved availability of agricultural inputs. In surplus growing areas in the north, the end of a trade embargo to Serb controlled areas, is expected to favour a recovery of production.
The food situation continues to improve as a result of an end to hostilities and increased access throughout the country which have favoured commercial traffic and the delivery of food aid. However, overall food aid requirement has not decreased this winter, as 1.9 million refugees and displaced persons continue to rely on food assistance for their living. The food situation is also tight for large groups of vulnerable people who, because of the economic disruption, have not enough income to purchase food despite a sharp fall in prices in the past months..
The estimate of the 1995 aggregate cereal production has been revised upward to 6.3 million tons, which would nevertheless still be about 2 percent less than the already below-average 1994 crop. Wheat output is now estimated at about 3.5 million tons compared with nearly 4 million tons in 1994. Latest information on the 1996 winter cereals points to a similar area of wheat as in the previous year, with plantings still constrained by the relatively high cost of inputs. It is thus unlikely that any significant increase in wheat output could be achieved this year.
Bread and flour prices had soared in December with concerns that wheat supplies in the country were not sufficient to meet domestic needs until this year�s harvest. The situation was likely aggravated by some producers holding back 1995 crop wheat in the hope of higher prices later this year and consumers� hoarding. In early 1996 prices have been easing back since the government sanctioned the release of wheat from the state's emergency reserves.
In view of the somewhat uncertain supply situation, in December, the government extended a wheat export ban imposed in October 1995, and originally valid until September 1996, to last until December 1996.
Growing conditions for the winter wheat and barley crops remain favourable reflecting adequate rainfall in the past month. However, production of wheat is forecast to decline by some 12 percent from 857 000 tons last year, mainly as a result of a reduction in the area planted . By contrast , production of barley is anticipated to increase due to an increase in area planted.
Despite the peace agreement in conflict areas, there are 410 000 refugees and displaced persons, including 38 000 in Sector East, who will continue to require food assistance in the first half of the year.
The latest revised estimates put cereal production at about 7 million tons in 1995, slightly above the previous year�s crop. Wheat output increased to nearly 3.9 million tons from 3.7 million tons in 1994, and accounts for most of the increase. Barley output is estimated at 2.4 million tons, similar to the previous year. Conditions for dormant winter grain crops are reported to be satisfactory. Adequate snowcover is protecting crops from cold temperatures and should ensure sufficient moisture for spring development.
Growing conditions for winter cereals have been satisfactory to date. There was ample time to plant crops and little winterkill has occurred to date. It is anticipated that high cereal prices and reduced export availability in neighbouring states have induced farmers to increase planting. However, yields will continue to be affected by the drawn-out process of land privatization and economic problems inherent in the transition from a command to a market economy. The 1995 grain harvest is officially estimated at only 530 000 tons, some 10 percent less than in the previous year. In 1995/96 cereal imports are anticipated to decline to about 200 000 tons.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (1 February)
Prospects for this year�s winter wheat are favourable. Satisfactory weather conditions since planting and improved input availability, following the end of a trade blockade with Greece, are expected to result in a recovery in production from last year.
The number of refugees still requiring food assistance in the first half of 1996 is estimated at 5 500.
Cereal output in 1995 is estimated at some 11 million tons, somewhat below last year�s harvest and below the five-year average. Of the total, wheat is estimated to account for 4.6 million tons compared to 4.8 million tons in 1994.
Prospects for the 1996 winter cereal crops already in the ground are mostly satisfactory. Although dry conditions at planting time last autumn led to poor germination of some crops, weather conditions during the winter so far have favoured dormant crops. Good snow cover protected crops from severe frosts in late December and will ensure that ample soil moisture is available for vegetative development this spring. However, the final area sown to winter wheat is still uncertain. Many farmers are reported to be lacking finances for inputs because of debts resulting from previous poor crops. Plantings were likely below potential and furthermore, it is likely that less high quality seeds have been used.
Growing conditions for 1996 winter crops have been satisfactory to date but final outcome will depend crucially on area sown to spring crops and weather conditions in the spring and summer. Even if area sown to grains increases from the 382 000 hectares planted in 1995, yields are likely to remain depressed as a result of low input use and difficulties in obtaining remunerative prices for livestock production.
The Government has issued licenses for the import of 70 000 tons of wheat and 167 000 tons of feedgrains in 1995/96.
The early outlook for winter grains is satisfactory. The area sown increased marginally to 430 000 hectares and snow cover has generally been sufficient to protect winter grains from severe cold. Aggregate cereal area is officially projected to fall by 12 percent to 930 000 hectares in 1996. The cereal import requirement is officially put at 350 000 tons, including 50 000 tons of wheat and 300 000 tons of feedgrains.
Cereal output in 1995 is estimated at 25.6 million tons, about 18 percent up from the drought-reduced crop in 1994. Wheat output increased by 13 percent to about 8.7 million tons, rye output grew by 19 percent to 6.3 million tons, while barley production rose by 23 percent to 3.3 million tons.
Prospects for the 1996 cereals are mostly favourable. The winter grain area is officially estimated to have increased by about 4.6 percent. Winter wheat was sown on 1.8 million hectares, 78 000 hectares more than in 1994, rye sowings rose 146 000 hectares to 2.4 million hectares while the barley increased about 31 000 hectares to 200 000 hectares. Generally good snowcover protected winter wheat and rye crops from freezing temperatures over December and early January, but the winter barley crop is reported to have suffered some significant frost damage.
The 1995 cereal harvest is now estimated at some 19 million tons, somewhat less than earlier expectations due to a downward revision of the estimate for maize production. Nevertheless, at this level, cereal output in 1995 would be 13 percent up from 1994 and well above the average of the passed five years.
Prospects for the 1996 wheat and rye crop remain satisfactory despite some harsh winter weather and severe flooding over the past month. Autumn sowing was somewhat hampered by poor weather and lack of funds and it is uncertain how much of the intended 2.8 million hectares were planted. There is now some concern over the slow pace of land preparation for spring sowing later this year. In late January it was reported around 3.4 million hectares of the total 5.8 million hectares planned for spring crops (mainly maize and sunflowers) were still left unploughed.
Latest reports indicate a total 1995 cereal output of some 3.5 million tons, similar to last year's crop. Wheat output remained at about 2 million tons. Conditions for dormant winter grain crops are reported to be satisfactory. Adequate snowcover is protecting crops from cold temperatures and should ensure sufficient moisture for spring development.
The outlook for the 1996 winter wheat crop is favourable, as adequate rainfall in the past month has helped maintain adequate soil moisture for the crop. Providing good weather conditions continue in the remainder of the season, output is forecast at a normal level of 180 000-200 000 tons which, however, is insufficient to cover domestic needs.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (1 February)
Despite favourable growing conditions for the 1996 wheat crop, early indications point to a decline in production due to a reduction in area planted, as more land is being diverted to industrial crops, shortages and substantially higher costs of agricultural inputs and low farmgate prices.
The number of refugees who still require food assistance in the first half of 1996 is estimated at 310 000. The increased number of refugees from the Krajina exodus in August 1995 has been partially offset by a reduction of the old caseload, as some former refugees are becoming gradually integrated into the local economy.