In northern Africa, prospects for the wheat and barley crops are favourable in Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco following generally favourable conditions. However, timely rainfall will be needed during the remainder of the season to avert yield decline. In Morocco, heavy rainfall towards the end of January damaged some cereal crops, but increased the level of water in reservoirs following last year’s worst drought on record. In Egypt, where the wheat crop is almost entirely irrigated, area planted and availability of agricultural inputs are reported to be satisfactory.
In western Africa, seasonal dry conditions prevail. In Sahelian countries, output of cereals in 1995 reached record levels in The Gambia and Guinea Bissau, was close to previous records in Mauritania and Senegal and above average in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger, reflecting generally favourable growing conditions and limited pest infestations. In contrast, maize production remained low in Cape Verde though it recovered somewhat from the reduced harvest in 1994. In coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, land preparation for the first maize crop, normally planted in late February/March following the onset of rains, has started. In Liberia and Sierra Leone, civil strife continues to disrupt production and distribution activities.
In central Africa, 1995 crop production was favourable in Cameroon and Central African Republic. In Zaire, rice and maize have been harvested in the north and recently planted coarse grains are developing satisfactorily in the south.
In eastern Africa, the 1995/96 secondary cereal crops are being harvested in most countries. Following sufficient rainfall during the season, the outlook in Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda is favourable. In Ethiopia, unexpected rainfall last month improved soil conditions for planting of the secondary “belg” crop. In Sudan, early prospects for the wheat crop are favourable reflecting expanded planting and adequate temperatures so far. In Rwanda, although output of the recently harvested 1996 first crop increased substantially over last year, due to returning farmers, it remained below normal. In contrast, in Burundi, a recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated a reduction in output of 1996 first season foodcrops.
In southern Africa, prospects are generally favourable for 1995/96 cereal crops to be harvested from April. After a delayed start, rainfall has been widespread since late November over most agricultural areas, benefiting crops in most countries. In Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe an average to above-average harvest is expected whilst the maize crop in South Africa is anticipated to be much larger than last year’s, notwithstanding localized floods in the north and east. In Angola, weather conditions and relative peace in the country is encouraging an expansion of plantings. In Malawi and Namibia, after an initial delay recent widespread rains have improved prospects and an average harvest is expected. In Madagascar, crop outlook is uncertain following cyclones in January, which flooded rice fields in the eastern province, the largest rice growing area in the country. The food supply situation remains tight in several countries of the sub-region as a result of drought-reduced harvests in 1994/95.
In Asia, crop prospects remain uncertain in some parts due to low rainfall. In China , the overall outlook for the dormant winter wheat crop remains uncertain, with the prospect of spring drought in some areas. In Sri Lanka substantially below-normal rainfall since October is expected to reduce significantly the output of the main Maha rice crop due for harvest in March/April. In the worst affected parts in the north, the rice crop is wilting and production could fall to 50 percent of output last year. The harvest of the second Yala crop may also be affected by reduced irrigation supplies. More rainfall is also needed in Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia for the developing second season rice crop. In India, above normal monsoon rains last year increased irrigation supplies and soil moisture levels, favouring the rabi crops, mainly wheat. In Pakistan, scattered light showers recently over major agricultural areas increased soil moisture levels and favoured the developing wheat crop, for which the target is set at 17.4 million tons. In Indonesia, floods in Sumatra and west Java affected the rice crop, while recent rainfall in the Philippines slowed harvesting of the second rice crop. Cereal production in Afghanistan is again likely to be constrained by short supplies of agricultural inputs. In Iraq, area planted is expected to increase, reflecting Government efforts to encourage farmers to produce more grains. However, yield potential is likely to remain constrained by serious shortages of fertilizers, spare parts for agricultural machinery and other inputs. In Syria and Turkey, the overall prospect for cereal crops remains favourable reflecting generally normal weather conditions since the beginning of the season. In Saudi Arabia, production of wheat is expected to be less than last year, as a result of Government measures to limit the use of ground water and cut subsidized production.
In Central America and the Caribbean, harvesting of the 1995/96 first season crop has been completed in most countries. Aggregate cereal production for the sub-region is provisionally estimated at 28.4 million tons, the lowest since 1989, compared to 31.6 million tons in 1994. The decline principally relfects poor production in Mexico, which more than offset a recovery in production in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, over the drought-affected crops in 1994. In the Caribbean, production has been normal, though significantly below-average output is expected in Cuba.
In South America, harvesting of the 1995 wheat crop has recently been completed and production is projected to decrease from 15.6 million tons to a below-average 13 million tons. The decline is largely attributable to reduced output in Argentina, the main producer, as a result of dry weather at planting time. Lower production is also expected in Brazil and Chile, while in Uruguay production should be normal. In the Andean countries, output was above average in Bolivia and Peru and average in Ecuador and Colombia. Planting of the 1996 coarse grain crop has been completed in southern areas where an increase in planting is projected, particularly in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.
In Europe, early prospects for the 1996 crops are generally favourable. Winter grain plantings have increased (in particular wheat) in the EC following a reduction in area restrictions and generally favourable weather last autumn. Plantings are also reported to have expanded in some eastern countries. However, financial constraints are likely to keep production below potential. In the Baltic States the early outlook for the 1996 grain harvest is satisfactory. Indications are that higher prices and reduced grain availability for export in the CIS have resulted in a larger area sown to winter grains.
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), larger plantings and the satisfactory condition of winter grains ( mainly wheat and rye) in the major producing states point to a recovery in the 1996 cereal harvest from the poor level of 123 million tons in 1995. However, growing conditions until the harvest and the availability of working capital on farms to obtain essential inputs on time will determine the final outcome. In the European parts of the CIS, market proximity and generally higher cereal prices point to a turn-around in production notably in the Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The outlook is also favourable in Georgia, where state wheat lands have been leased to private farmers. However, efforts to expand grain production in the CIS are being undermined by progressively declining yields due to shortages of credit and essential inputs.
In North America, final United States official estimates for 1995 production put the wheat crop at 59.5 million tons, 3.7 million tons below the previous year, and the coarse grains crop at 209.6 million tons, 75.5 million tons down from 1994’s record level. The early outlook for the 1996 winter wheat is mixed. Plantings have expanded but crops have come under stress from harsh conditions in January. In Canada, the latest estimate of 1995 wheat output is 25.4 million tons, 2.3 million tons above the previous year and coarse grain production also increased, by about 0.5 million tons to 24.3 million tons. For 1996 early indications point to an increase in wheat area; the bulk of coarse grains will not be planted until May-June.
In Oceania, the latest estimate of the 1995 wheat crop is 17.1 million tons, almost double the previous year’s drought-reduced crop. The winter coarse grain crop also recovered sharply in 1995. The 1996 summer sorghum crop has continued to develop well following good rainfall in the major eastern growing areas of Australia in late December and January.
NOTE: This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO Secretariat with information from official and unofficial sources. Since conditions can change rapidly and information may not always represent the current crop or food supply situation as of present date, further enquiries should be made before any action is taken. None of the reports should be regarded in any way as statements of governmental views.
Enquiries may be directed to Mr. Abdur Rashid, Chief, Global Information and Early Warning Service, Commodities and Trade Division, (ESC), FAO, Rome (Telex: 610181 FAO I, GIEWS Direct Facsimile: 0039-6-5225-4495, E-mail INTERNET: [email protected]).
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this bulletin do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.