Rainfall in March improved growing conditions for recently planted 1996 second season foodcrops. However, overall crop prospects deteriorated as a result of insecurity since early March which has led to renewed population displacement, negatively affecting agriculture. The security situation is particularly bad in previously calm southern provinces and in Bujumbura Rural province. Roads into the interior remain under threat of frequent violent attacks. Attacks on international agencies have also hampered distribution of relief assistance.
Production of the 1996 first season crops was also affected by insecurity in norhtern provinces, which caused a substantial reduction in planting and yield of bean and cereal crops. In addition, unfavourable weather conditions in localized areas negatively effected crops. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in early February estimated food output at 1.26 million tons, 4 percent lower than the 1995 first season and 15 percent below pre-crisis levels. Compared to normal levels the most notable decline occured in beans, maize and potatoes which fell by 27 percent, 23 percent and 14 percent to 113 000 tons, 104 000 tons and 17 000 tons respectively. The mission had forecast 1996 aggregate food production at 3.5 million tons, 4 percent below average, provided there was a sustained improvement in securitiy, farmers were provided with seeds and farm tools and favourable weather prevailed. However, recent deterioration in the political and security situation, means the forecast is unlikely to materialize.
At the forecast level, food import requeriment in 1996 was estimated at 54 000 tons of cereals and 59 000 tons of pulses. With commercial food imports expected to reach 31 000 tons of cereals and 5 000 tons of pulses, food aid requiremets were estimated at 23 000 tons of cereals and 54 000 tons of pulses. There is also a shortfall of 161 000 tons of roots and tubers and 125 000 of bananas which would need to be partly covered by additional supplies of cereals and pulses. Against the food aid requirement, pledges amounted to 8 500 tons by mid-March.
Cereal and pulse production declined sharply in 1995, due to erratic rainfall during the season and localized pest damage. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last November estimated output at 149 000 tons, 42 percent below the harvest in the previous year and well below average for the past three years. As a result, the 1996 cereal import requirement increased substantially to 291 000 tons. Commercial imports are expected to reach 100 000 tons, reflecting the positive impact of a liberalized import policy and increased flows from Ethiopia, where a bumper crop was harvested last December. This leaves a deficit of 191 000 tons to be covered by food aid, out of which 79 000 tons are needed for some 750 000 vulnerable people, including farmers who harvested a poor crop, mostly in the areas of Seraye, Akele Guzai, Senhit and Barka provinces, and people without adequate access to food. Against these requirements, food aid pledges amounted to 58 000 tons by mid-March, of which 18 000 tons have been delivered.
While food shortages have not yet been reported, unless substantial food assistance is mobilized urgently the situation is expected to deteriorate from May/June, when food stocks would have been depleted.
Average to above average rainfall in the third dekad of February and first half of March, following dry weather earlier, improved prospects for the 1996 �Belg� crops to be harvested from June. However, more rainfall is still needed in western areas of Oromia. The Belg season accounts for only about 7 percent of total cereal production but in some areas it provides over 50 percent of annual food supplies.
Abundant rainfall in March also replenished soil moisture for land preparation and planting of the 1996 main �Meher� cereal crop. Pasture conditions are also reported to be in good condition, following an improvement in rainfall.
�Meher� cereal production in 1995 was estimated record, reflecting satisfactory weather during the season, improved fertilizer distribution and absence of migratory pests. Assuming a normal �Belg� crop, aggregate cereal and pulse production in 1995/96 is expected to reach 9.4 million tons, some 13 percent higher than the above-average crop in the previous year.
Given good production and adequate levels of food aid carryover stock, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last December estimated that no cereal imports will be required in 1996, other than limited quantities of committed food aid pledges. Actual food aid pledges until mid- March amount to 227 000 tons of which 136 000 tons have been delivered.
Although the overall food supply situation remains stable, food assistance is required for up to 3 million people in parts where �Meher� crops were reduced and in traditionally vulnerable and food insecure areas, particularly in Tigray, North Wollo, Walaita and Hararghe zones. The Government has appealed to donors to purchase most of the relief assistance locally.
Planting of the 1996/97 long rain season crops has started under favourable conditions, following abundant rain in January and February in main growing areas, which replenished soil moisture levels.
The recently harvested 1996 secondary �short rains� cereal crop season was lower than anticipated due to localized crop losses in the Eastern Province affected by dry spells. However, overall output is estimated to be normal. In most pastoral areas, the short rains were generally good and livestock is reported to be in good condition.
The main �long rains� cereal production in 1995 fell from the bumper harvest in 1994 but remained above average. Aggregate cereal output in 1995/96 is estimated at 3.4 million tons, 9 percent lower than the previous year.
Following two good successive harvests, and high levels of carryover stocks, prices of maize have fallen sharply since late October. The Government exported 400 000 tons to turn- over stocks and generate cash to pay debts to farmers. However, in order to meet normal food consumption needs, the country will have to import limited quantities of maize before the next main harvest from September.
Widespread and abundant rainfall in recent months, which were excessive in western parts, improved overall growing conditions for the recently planted 1996 second season cereal and pulse crops and allowed favourable development of other foodcrops. The availability of agricultural inputs has improved following implementation of various agricultural rehabilitation projects. Despite favourable conditions, production is unlikely to improve much over poor levels in previous seasons due to population displacement and economic disruption caused by past civil strife. The number of returnees in the last quarter of 1995 and early 1996 fell far short of expectation in spite of efforts by the international community to promote voluntary repatriation.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in December estimated the output of the 1996 first season food crop at 1.8 million tons, some 25 percent above last year�s crop though still 18 percent lower than normal pre-war levels. Production of cereals increased by 18 percent to 73 000 tons and that of pulses by 56 percent to 117 000 tons. The outputs of root and tubers, and bananas also rose by 55 percent and 10 percent to 536 000 tons and 1 million tons respectively. The increase in production is mainly attributed to an increase in area planted due to a return to farming of displaced persons and refugees.
It is estimated that about 1 million people will continue to rely on food aid assistance for the first half of 1996, including vulnerable groups and returnees.
Food prices, which have fallen since the second half of 1995 in response to relative improvement in production and distribution of food aid, stabilized in February.
Output of the 1996 secondary �Der� cereal crop, harvested until February, is estimated at 110 000 tons, similar to last year's and above average. This includes 75 000 tons of sorghum and 35 000 tons of maize. In response to adequate rainfall at the beginning of the season and a poor main �Gu� crop, area planted increased and yields improved. In contrast, output of the main �Gu� crop declined by 45 percent from the previous year to 172 000 tons, due to reduced planting, pest infestation and erratic rainfall. Aggregate cereal production in 1995/96 is estimated at 284 000 tons, a third below pre-war levels.
Due to reduced cereal production in 1995/96, it is expected that the food supply situation will deteriorate from May, when food stocks would be close to depletion. The situation has been made worse by persistent insecurity in the country which has disrupted trade and led to frequent closure of Mogadishu port. As a result, prices have not decreased in the post-harvest period in some markets, while prices of imported food have increased.
Imports in marketing year 1995/96 (September/August) are estimated at 320 000 tons, significantly higher than in the previous year. Commercial imports are estimated at 125 000 tons, leaving a deficit of 195 000 tons to be covered by food aid. Against requirements, by mid-March pledges amounted to only 22 000 tons. Substantial food assistance is still urgently needed in the months ahead before the next main harvest in September 1996.
In northern pastoral areas, drought conditions have been reported in several parts, particularly in the Awdal northeastern region. However, there are indications that unusual migration patterns have permitted pastoralists to cope with the situation. The next "Gu" rains from April will be crucial for pastures and livestock recovery in the area.
Harvesting of the 1996 wheat crop is underway. The outlook is favourable due to an increase in area planted, in response to higher prices, and Government policy to increase planting in irrigated schemes. Yields are anticipated to be good following satisfactory weather conditions and the absence of migratory pest. The latest forecast puts wheat output at an above-average 570 000 tons, 27 percent higher than last year.
Output of the main coarse grain crop in 1995 was estimated at 3.3 million tons by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last December, 28 percent below the bumper crop in the previous year. Area planted decreased due to diversion of land to more profitable crops and erratic rainfall at the beginning of the season, while yields were negatively affected by poor rainfall in the middle of the season. The decline in production was particularly sharp in traditionally vulnerable areas of North and West Kordofan and in North Darfur. Although coping mechanisms are expected to allow farmers to cover the food deficit, the food situation needs to be carefully monitored in these areas.
At the forecast level of production, cereal imports in 1996 will be limited to some 480 000 tons of wheat, while exports will be minimal.
In southern parts, affected by a prolonged civil conflict, food difficulties persist despite good production overall. Food aid requirements for war-affected and displaced persons and for vulnerable people, are estimated at some 78 000 tons. Growing insecurity since the beginning of the year has limited access to affected areas and hampered food aid distribution.
The overall output of the 1996 short rains �Vuli� cereal crops, harvested until February, was estimated to be good. However, crops in localized areas in the north were affected by insufficient rainfall during the season, reducing output somewhat.
In unimodal rain areas (central, southern and western areas and the maize surplus growing south-western highlands), prospects for the 1996 main season coarse grain crops are favourable following cumulative above normal rainfall since the beginning of the season. Maize in the vegetative stage is reported to be in fair condition, and good yields are expected.
In the bi-modal rainfall areas (northern coastal belt and northern highlands), planting of the 1996 main �Masika� crops is underway. Soil moisture is reported to be adequate due to normal rainfall in February, though more is needed following below-average precipitation in the first half of March.
Early forecast of the 1996/97 cereal crop indicates an aggregate output close to 4 million tons, some 13 percent below last year's exceptional crop due to a return to normal yields.
Favourable rainfall in recent months has also improved pasture and livestock conditions.
The output of the recently harvested 1996 secondary season cereal crop was good, following normal to above-normal rainfall during the growing season. The rainfall also benefited land preparation for planting the 1996 main season crop, currently underway. Early prospects are favourable. Aggregate cereal output in 1996 is forecast at 2.1 million tons, similar to last year's record.
As a result of increasing production in the last four years, the overall food supply situation remains satisfactory and the country has become an important exporter of maize in the region.