Planting of the bulk of the wheat and coarse grain crops is about to start. Early indications point to an 10 percent increase in wheat area, continuing a move back to wheat after a large shift to oilseed production in 1993 and 1994. Based on these tentative planting intentions and assuming normal growing conditions, wheat output in 1996 could rise by some 2 million tons from the previous year to about 27.5 million tons. There are indications that coarse grains plantings will also increase somewhat from last year’s already above-average area. However, the outcome of the spring planting campaign will depend greatly on weather conditions in the coming weeks.
The outlook for the 1996 wheat crop is somewhat uncertain. Latest official estimates put overall winter wheat plantings at 21 million hectares, 7 percent up from the previous year’s area, while early indications for the spring crop to be planted in the coming weeks point to a 3 percent increase in area. However, unfavourable weather conditions have already led to significant abandonment of the winter wheat area, and much of the remaining crop is reported in poor condition. In early April, 15 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in very poor condition and 25 percent was in poor condition, compared to only 1 percent and 4 percent respectively in these categories a year ago. Continuing dry conditions are now the biggest concern in the hard red winter wheat areas as more and more of the wheat is entering the jointing stage and without adequate moisture yields will be impaired. For the 1996 wheat crop, much will still depend on weather conditions in the coming weeks. If moisture arrives soon for the winter wheat crop and spring planting intentions can be realized, then aggregate wheat production should increase from the below-average crop in 1995.
Planting of the 1996 coarse grain crops is underway in some southern areas, but the bulk of the maize crop planting in the Corn Belt takes place from late April. The USDA projects that the area planted will increase some 12 percent, in response to attractive prices, and the reduction of area restrictions. However, the weather in the coming weeks will also have an important influence on the outcome of this year’s plantings. Topsoil moisture reserves are generally adequate for planting to proceed on time, but more rains are needed soon to sustain the crops when they emerge. However, assuming that farmers’ planting intentions are realized, and that weather conditions are normal for the remainder of the season, an increase of as much as 30 percent could be expected in the United States coarse grain crop from the below-average output in 1995.