Harvesting of the 1996 maize crop has begun under satisfactory conditions. Despite more intensive use of fertilizers and irrigation, early forecasts point to a below- average output of around 10 million tons, some 12 percent lower than last year’s favourable crop, the largest by far in more than a decade. The anticipated decrease reflects reduced planting and yields due to extremely dry weather and high temperatures at planting. Parts of north Buenos Aires province, south Cordoba and Santa Fe, and much of La Pampa provinces were particularly affected. Although recent rainfall restored much needed soil moisture, it arrived too late to avoid the reduction. By late-March, 18 percent of the area planted had been harvested. Harvesting of the sorghum crop has also started. Although production is anticipated to be higher than last year’s poor crop, it is expected to remain below average.
Harvesting of the 1996 paddy crop is well advanced. The crop has also been affected by dry weather and provisional forecasts put production at about 900 000 tons, slightly below last year’s good crop, though still far above normal. The anticipated increase is principally due to a larger area planted.
Land preparation has begun for planting the 1996/97 wheat crop. Due to high export prices the overall area planted is expected to be significantly higher than last year.
Satisfactory rainfall in recent months has benefited the development of the 1996/97 main season cereal and potato crops. Harvesting has begun and early prospects are favourable providing good weather persists. Wheat output is expected to be above average. Coarse grain production is expected to be lower than last year, but above average. The output of potatoes is expected to be similar to last year's good crop.
Wheat imports in the 1996/97 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to decrease from 302 000 tons to 275 000 tons, reflecting high international prices and large carry-over stocks.
Rainfall in recent weeks came too late to help the 1996 maize crop which had earlier been affected by a long dry spell and high temperatures, particularly in November and December. This resulted in a significant reduction in both area planted and yields in main producing states. In Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest producing state, a 12.5 percent reduction in plantings from last year is reported, while in Parana and Santa Catarina, where only some parts were affected by a lack of rainfall, the cuts in the area planted are estimated at 3.2 and 1.3 percent respectively. In contrast, the North and North-east regions, which are normally affected by long dry spells, have been favoured by adequate rains and a satisfactory output of maize is expected. Harvesting is well advanced, and by mid-March about 31 percent of the area sown had been harvested. Latest forecasts point to a below-normal maize output of about 29.1 million tons, compared to last year’s record of 36.2 million tons.
Sowing of the 1996 wheat crop is underway in some areas, and planting in the main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul should begin in April and May respectively. Significantly larger plantings compared to 1995 and use of better quality seeds are anticipated in response to strong internal demand and Government efforts to stimulate recovery in production, through increased availability of credit following last year’s poor output.
A severe drought in main wheat growing areas of Central region seriously damaged the 1995/96 wheat crop, which was recently harvested. Preliminary estimates put output at between 1 and 1.1 million tons, compared to 1.4 million tons last year. The output of barley, potatoes and other food crops, was also seriously affected. The area planted of maize declined, but to a much lesser extent. Harvesting of the 1996 maize crop is about to start and early forecasts indicate that output will be lower than last year, though about average.
Wheat imports in the 1995/96 marketing year (December/November) are expected to increase from 650 000 tons to about 800 000 tons, to cover the domestic supply deficit caused by drought.
Land preparation is underway in generally dry conditions for planting the 1996/97 first season cereal crops beginning in April. Early planting prospects are good. Wheat area is expected to increase over last year, to slightly above- average. The area of maize, the main crop, is also expected to increase to a normal levels, though the area of sorghum is expected to be below-average.
Planting of the 1996 main cereal and potato crops is almost complete. In coastal areas, normal temperatures and abundant rainfall in February restored soil moisture levels and benefited developing yellow maize and paddy crops, which had been adversely affected earlier by dry conditions. In the highlands, where most of the wheat and white maize is grown, harvesting is due from May. Highland crops, including potatoes, have also been favoured by abundant rains in February, though low temperatures at the end of the month may have adversely affected the crop. In the eastern areas, where yellow maize is sown throughout the year, the bulk of the harvest is due to take place by end May, while harvesting of the paddy crop starts from June. Current projections point to an average wheat crop for the country as a whole. Although maize production is forecast to decrease from last year, it should remain above average. A bumper paddy crop is anticipated provided good weather persists and output of potatoes is expected to be satisfactory.
Satisfactory, widespread rainfall over main growing areas favoured planting of the 1996 main season cereal and potato crops and helped replenish water reservoirs in the northern coastal areas of Piura and Lambayeque, which had fallen to very low levels in mid-January as a result of insufficient rain. Early planting prospects are satisfactory for all crops. In the highland valleys, the area planted to wheat, mostly soft, is expected to be close to last year’s above- average level, and above-normal maize plantings are also anticipated. With enough white maize to meet human consumption, increased plantings of yellow maize are anticipated. This reflects continuing strong demand from the poultry and hog industries coupled with high international prices for maize. The area planted to barley is also expected to be above average. Paddy area is forecast to increase from the 1995 above-normal level, due mainly to strong domestic demand and attractive prices.
Satisfactory rainfall since mid-February brought some relief to the 1995/96 maize, sorghum and paddy crops, which had earlier been affected by dry weather. Harvesting is underway and early projections suggest that maize production will decline to a below-average 175 000 tons compared to last year. Sorghum output is expected to be a slightly-below average 102 000 tons. By contrast, a bumper paddy crop is anticipated, with output provisionally forecast at some 800 000 tons, compared to an average of 630 000 tons in the preceding five years. This is mainly attributed to increased planting in response to expanding exports, particularly to Brazil.
Satisfactory rain is keeping soils moist for planting the 1996 cereal crops, due to begin in April. Early prospects are uncertain as a result of the high cost of farm inputs and other financial and administrative constraints to the agricultural sector. The area planted to maize is expected to be about 351 000 hectares, compared to an average of 375 000 hectares in the preceding five years. Sorghum area is anticipated to decrease from last year’s below-normal 210 000 hectares and the area planted to paddy, the main crop, is also expected to be below-average.