An FAO mission in February found that shortages of credit and inputs had resulted in a slight reduction in the area planted to winter cereals to 85 000 hectares. The harvest outlook is unfavourable, and lower yields compared to last year are expected due to below-normal precipitation this winter, poor soil moisture reserves for unirrigated spring crops, the progressive malfunction of the irrigation system and extensive crop damage this winter by temperatures as low as - 20 to -30 degrees without snowcover. Aggregate cereal production in 1996 is provisionally estimated at about 215 000 tons, nearly 20 percent less than in 1995. In addition, the potato harvest is threatened by an infestation of the Colorado Beetle.
The overall food supply situation has improved over last year, due to increased trade with some neighbouring countries and substantial donor assistance for the purchase and transport of wheat supplies. However, market prices remain very high compared to minimum and average official wages and pensions. As a result, a proportion of the population seriously lack funds to purchase food. Until there is a marked improvement in the levels of employment and earnings, therefore, fruit, vegetables, grains, bread and potatoes remain vital commodities for ensuring food security.
Despite increased consumption of potatoes, dependence on bread remains high. The requirement for human consumption of cereals, on the basis of 400 grams per person per day for a resident population of 3.2 million, is put at 462 000 tons. The use of grains for feed is estimated to fall to 40 000 tons, whilst requirement for other uses - 78 000 tons - remains a high proportion of total output, as farmers continue to sow over 300 kilos of wheat seed per hectare to offset poor quality. Compared to a cereal requirement of 580 000 tons in 1996/97, it is estimated that 215 000 tons will be available from domestic resources, leaving a substantial deficit of 365 000 tons. Given an enabling economic environment, commercial imports in 1996/97 (July/June) of up to 100 000 tons may be mobilized leaving a requirement of 265 000 tons. Confirmed pledges carried forward from 1995/96 amount to 75 000 tons, leaving an import gap of 190 000 to be covered by concessional credits and food aid. As the ability of private trade to import up to 150 000 tons has not yet been proven it is recommended that a consistent supply of humanitarian food rations to the country be kept, to enable emergency distributions of wheat flour to vulnerable populations in the case of a supply shortfall and sharp price increases.
Some 400 000 people are targeted for relief food assistance by humanitarian organizations. Of this population, WFP is providing food rations to 250 000 people (the most vulnerable groups, refugees and internally displaced people) through distribution of dry rations, small scale food-for-work projects and soup kitchens. WFP's food pipeline will be exhausted by June and donors are urged to make additional pledges to cover the shortfall of some 8 000 tons to the end of the year.
The area sown to winter grains is reported to have increased to 622 000 hectares. Crop condition is satisfactory but shortages of fertilizer and a deteriorating irrigation system will keep yields low. The official target for cereals in 1996 is 1.050 million tons compared to 921 000 tons harvested in 1995. This level of output is feasible given a 7 percent increase in area sown.
Despite economic stability and substantial donor assistance for food purchase and transport, the wheat supply situation is tight. The official supply pipeline is very limited after March and official cereal stocks are low. The closure of the northern border with the Russian Federation, outstanding debts for wheat imports and financial difficulties of the state bread corporation have resulted in sharply reduced imports and utilization in 1995/96.
The minimum requirement for cereals in 1996/97 is estimated at 1.6 million tons, including 1.12 million tons of foodgrains (400 grams per person per day for a population of 7.6 million). Feed use is estimated at 228 000 tons - only one quarter of availability in 1990 despite the loss of large tracts of summer pasture - while other uses, mainly seed and losses, are estimated at 230 000 tons. Against food grain requirement, domestic supplies of wheat, after deduction for seed and losses, is estimated at about 560 000 tons leaving an import requirement of 550 000 tons in addition to a significant deficit in feedgrains. The commercial import capacity is limited and up to half of this requirement may need to be provided by a combination of loans, concessional credits and food aid.
There are major problems in the banking system and all royalties, past and future, from the signature of oil industry contracts, have been used or are earmarked to stabilize the manat. Substantial additional revenues from oil extraction are not expected to come onstream for 2-3 years. In addition, the country is cut off from its major markets and transport costs have increased dramatically while export earnings have fallen sharply. Moreover, the country is only just emerging from a long drawn out conflict over Nagorno Karabakh and the presence of about 1 million refugees and IDP's are an enormous burden to the economy.
WFP is providing supplementary food assistance to a target group of 225 000 beneficiaries, including displaced people from Nagorno Karabakh, hospital patients and inmates of social welfare institutions. The food pipeline is secured through summer. Outstanding requirements for 1996 amount to 6 300 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 4 million.
Spring field work is underway. The early outlook for the 1996 harvest is satisfactory so far and output is forecast at some 6 million tons, compared to 5.6 million tons in 1995. The planting of winter grains was completed under favourable conditions and the area sown to wheat and rye is estimated to have increased by 4 percent to nearly 1.1 million hectares.
An FAO Mission in March found that the 1996 harvest outlook was uncertain. The wheat harvest is likely to be poor as seed shortages prevented planting of a large proportion of ploughed land. To compensate, the area sown to maize is expected to increase. Provided planned imports of hybrid maize seed and fertilizer materialize, in time for spring planting, the 1996 harvest is estimated to be in the range of 600 000-800 000 tons.
The overall food supply situation has improved over last year due to economic stability, an upturn in domestic food production and substantial donor assistance for purchase and transport of wheat. However, the country has a large structural deficit in wheat and the reduced official wheat supply pipeline beyond May 1996 points to a tightening in supplies.
The grain sector is undergoing privatization, restructuring and price liberalization but the effect of these changes are difficult to quantify. Nevertheless it is clear that rural self-reliance has increased and that the importance of the private sector is growing.
In 1996/97 the cereal requirement for food for a resident population of 4.5 million people is estimated at 660 000 tons, (i.e. 400 grams of wheat and maize per person per day), including 425 000 tons of wheat. This quantity is necessary to cover a bread ration of 300 grams per person per day for the urban population and IDP's and 200 grams per person per day in rural areas. Feed use of grains is estimated at some 350 000 tons, whilst requirements for other uses, (mainly seed and losses) is estimated at around 70 000 tons. Against aggregate domestic requirement for cereals of 1.08 million tons, domestic availability in 1996 is put at almost 700 000 tons, leaving a cereal import requirement of 380 000 tons. Commercial imports in 1996/97 are tentatively estimated at up to 150 000 tons, leaving a requirement of 230 000 tons to be covered by credits and food aid.
WFP is targeting 280 000 displaced people from Abkhazia and other vulnerable groups with supplementary food assistance. The food pipeline is in a dire state with last distributions planned for May. WFP urgently appeals to donors for a replenishment of its pipeline in order to keep up the current level of assistance. Outstanding requirements for the remainder of 1996 have been calculated at 17 000 tons, valued at approximately U.S.$ 11.6 million
Weather conditions and farm economics will be the crucial determinants for the 1996 harvest outcome. Growing conditions to date have been satisfactory but the bulk of the crop will not be planted until next month. Availability of agricultural credit is inadequate and after the drought reduced harvest of 1995 it is uncertain whether farmers will have adequate funds to sow the planned 18.2 million hectares. In 1996 the official domestic purchase price has been set at U.S.$ 120 per ton at the farmgate, still well below world price but twice that received on average by farmers in 1995. Farmers' perception of what proportion of this price they will actually receive will also influence planting decisions.
Good snow conditions to date benefited the winter grain crop, which, however represents only a very small proportion of total harvest. The target for 1996 production is 18 million tons, almost twice the drought reduced level of 1995, officially estimated at 9.5 million tons. Despite a very poor harvest, the country has adequate supplies of cereals to meet domestic demand but the availability for export is limited to an estimated 1-2 million tons, mostly to the Russian Federation to the detriment of neighbouring food-deficit countries.
Official estimates indicating that the 1996 winter cereal area (mainly wheat) increased by nearly 100 000 hectares to 332 000 hectares, are thought to be over optimistic by agricultural extension experts working with farmers. Despite rising wheat prices for consumers, neither agricultural credit, on farm liquidity or adequate inputs were available to enable farmers to plant the targeted winter cereal area. The same problems are expected to hinder planting in spring and the government has exhorted farmers "to use their natural initiative and entrepreneurship" to overcome a seed shortage of 14 000 tons to meet a spring planting target of 290 000 hectares. The 1995 cereal harvest was a disappointing 990 000 tons and the early outlook does not point to a marked improvement in 1996.
The minimum cereal import requirement for 1995/96 is now estimated to be about 200 000 tons of wheat. Against this requirement, donors have pledged an estimated 106 000 tons to date.
The condition of the winter grain crop is satisfactory and planting of the maize crop is due to start soon. Final output will depend crucially on weather conditions until July. The 1995 grain harvest is estimated at 2.3 million tons. Wheat imports in 1995/96 are expected to decline to about 50 000 tons of mainly high gluten wheat to supplement domestic low gluten wheat for breadmaking. Plans to exchange a substantial quantity of cereals for oil with Azerbaijan have not been implemented.
In the Transdniestr area the wheat supply situation is reported to be tight. This industrial area is in deep recession and the authorities lack resources to import wheat from neighbouring countries whilst farmers are unwilling to sell surplus wheat for the rapidly devaluing coupon used in the region. The official bread ration in Tiraspol, (*pop 200 000 ) has been roughly halved to about 225 grams per person per day.
Early prospects for the 1996 cereal harvest are better than at the same time last year, as heavy snowfall this winter helped replenish soil moisture reserves after last year's drought. The 1996 target of 77-80 million tons, however, will depend crucially on weather conditions this spring and summer and the timely availability on farm of adequate quantities of liquidity or credit, fertilizer, fuel and spare parts to plant and harvest 1996 crops. Higher wheat prices in 1995 after a poor harvest and increased investment in agricultural production by domestic companies may help to ease severe financial problems on farm. Nevertheless successive years of low input use, particularly fertilizer and herbicides is likely to keep yields below potential.
The area sown to winter grains (15.3 mh) and that ploughed in the autumn increased. The winter grain crop is in good condition overall and current expectations are that extent of winterkill will be about average, i.e. about 10 percent of the crop, and less than in the preceding two years. Provided growing conditions remain favourable the winter grain harvest could be substantially larger than last year's 20 million tons. The target for spring planting target is 70 million hectares including some 40 million hectares of spring grains.
Demand for cereals has fallen sharply in recent years. Sharp cut backs in animal numbers and demand for livestock products have reduced demand for compound feed from 40 million tons in the early nineties to 10 million tons in 1995. Demand for human consumption is also estimated to have fallen to around 120 kg per capita per year. Despite the poor harvest (underestimated at 63.5 million tons) and slow progress with domestic procurement of grains, cereal imports in 1995/96 may not exceed 5 million tons (including intra-trade).
In March 1996, WFP completed implementation of the winter feeding programme assisting 95 000 displaced Chechens in Ingushetia, North Ossetia and Daghestan. On the basis of a recent WFP food assessment mission, it was decided to continue supplementary food aid operations within the framework of an extended UN Appeal for victims of the Chechnya conflict. WFP is urgently appealing for a replenishment of its food pipeline. Estimated requirements for the period 1 June 1996-31 March 1997 have been calculated at 6 700 tons, valued at U.S.$ 5.1 million.
The overall food supply situation in this land-locked country of 5.6 million people is so serious that the most vulnerable risk starvation unless immediate steps are taken to replenish the humanitarian food aid pipeline. Domestic cereal production remains low and the country is dependent on imports of fuel, grain and most inputs for industry. The effects of civil strife in 1992, deep and continuing recession as well as the lack of foreign exchange and barter goods has created widespread unemployment and a chronic food shortage. To date, the country has managed to mobilize less than half the minimum cereal import requirement of 530 000 tons in 1995/96 and the government reports a gap in supplies in the lean months prior to harvest in July. Unless immediate steps are taken to mobilize an additional 100 000 tons of food aid and to step up deliveries of pledged quantities, human consumption of cereals in 1995/96 is set to fall to only 65 kg/per capita for the year or less than two thirds of the minimum cereal requirement of 300 grams per person per day.
The 1996 outlook is again unfavourable. Wheat has been planted wherever possible - and the area sown has increased - but yields are falling steadily due to a shortage of quality seed, fuel, spare parts, the breakdown of mechanization, and the increasing use of marginal land. Ethnic tensions coupled with widespread un- and underemployment in rural and urban areas make it extremely difficult to break up large state farms and transfer land to private farmers for food production. The country will continue to need assistance to cover its import requirement of 530 000 tons in 1996/97 as well as additional quantities of humanitarian assistance WFP to provide.
Relief food assistance is needed for a target population of 620 000 people in vulnerable groups. Of this population, WFP is appealing for the needs of 400 000 people (pensioners, war widows, orphans, invalids, among whom are returnee and internally displaced persons). Confirmed pledges in the pipeline only cover WFP's needs through to May. Donors are urgently requested to cover the shortfall of 24 000 tons to the end of the year.
Cereal production data has been inflated. The 1995 cereal harvest is now estimated at about 1 million tons, somewhat less than the 1.09 tons harvested in 1994. Grain production increased sharply between 1990 and 1993 but grew by very little between 1993 and 1995 despite a 30 percent increase in the area sown. Yields have declined steadily in recent years due to poor incentives to farmers to increase efficiency, waterlogging and salination of productive land, lack of inputs and poor seed. The government is finding it increasingly difficult to adequately finance agricultural production on state farms. The cereal supply situation is tight and the government is experiencing difficulties in providing even the reduced ration of 8 kg of flour per person per month.
Domestic cereal utilization in 1995/96 is estimated to decline to some 1.5 million tons, as a result of a disappointing cereal harvest estimated at about 1 million tons, limited commercial import capacity and reduced export availability in neighbouring Kazakhstan.
The early outlook for winter grains is favourable. Good snowfall this year has protected winter crops and will help replenish soil moisture reserves for spring growth. The area sown to winter crops increased to 7.1 million hectares from 6.8 million hectares and crops are reported to be in satisfactory condition, though some winterkill has occurred. The spring grain area is targeted to reach 6.2 million hectares, whilst spring field work is underway. The 1996 cereal harvest is targeted to reach 38 million tons, including 18 million tons of wheat. Whether these targets will be achieved depends on progress in overcoming reported shortages of seed and fertilizer and weather conditions. Last year's grain harvest is officially estimated at 35 million tons (cleaned weight) but is believed to be somewhat underestimated. Cereal production in 1995 is adequate to meet domestic food and (declining) feed needs in 1995/96 and the country is likely to export up to 2 million tons of cereals, mainly wheat.
The early outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is satisfactory . The area under wheat has expanded steadily and has almost doubled since 1990 in an effort to achieve wheat self- sufficiency. However yields are declining slowly due to shortages of inputs. The 1995 production estimate has again been lowered and is now put at around 2.2 million tons.
Cereal consumption has declined in response to a reduced bread subsidy. The import requirement has decreased steadily from a peak of about 5 million tons per annum prior to independence to an estimated 2.4 million tons of mainly wheat in 1995/96. Of this only about 800 000 tons is expected to be mobilized from within the CIS.
Early prospects for the Community�s 1996 wheat and coarse grain crops are satisfactory. Prolonged wintry conditions have kept many of the winter crops in northern areas dormant for longer than usual but spring growth has already begun in southern Spain, Portugal and Italy. Latest reports confirm that the area planted to winter grains expanded somewhat, particularly in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the three major producers, following reduction of area restrictions and favourable autumn conditions. The bulk of the increase was in wheat with smaller increases in rye and barley areas. The outcome of grain planting this spring will still be important for the overall crop but based on the information already available on the area and condition of the winter crops and assuming normal spring planting conditions, aggregate cereal production in the community is expected to rise by about 5 percent. Soft wheat output is projected to increase by about 6 percent while the minor durum crop could increase by as much as 25 percent. Outputs of barley and maize are also expected to rise by about 6 percent and 8 percent respectively. A sharp recovery in cereal output in Spain this year, after a drought-reduced crop in 1995, is expected to contribute significantly to the overall increase in the Community�s 1996 cereal production.
Prospects for the 1996 cereal crops are very uncertain but as farmers are faced with continuing financial constraints and lack of essential inputs, it is likely that production will remain well below potential. Production of wheat, the major food cereal, is not expected to improve from 1995�s reduced crop of 420 000 tons, and thus would remain at about half of the country�s normal consumption requirements. As in the current year, with state wheat reserves reported to be virtually completely depleted, this will necessitate the continued reliance on imports, in particular to meet the needs for bread production in the urban areas. Imports of about 300 000 tons are estimated to be required in 1995/96 and much of this will have to be covered by food aid. At least one-third of this is already reported to be covered between commercial purchases and food aid donations from several nations.
Adequate snow cover protected the 1996 dormant winter wheat crop from severe temperatures and, following good rains, soil moisture is sufficient for vegetative growth, which is about to begin. Prospects remain favourable, also reflecting an increase in the area planted, mainly in central parts, and improved availability of seeds and fertilizers.
The overall food supply situation has eased since the Peace Agreement was signed last November, which has resulted in progressive normalization of commercial activities and improved access to areas where food aid is required. However, there are still 1.9 million refugees and war-affected people in need of emergency food aid during the first half of 1996.
The resettlement of internally displaced persons and the return of refugees has begun slowly, but organized return is not expected to begin until after the winter. Peace has brought positive change in the humanitarian relief effort and increased freedom of movement has meant that food aid is now delivered without hindrance across former confrontation lines. However, peace has not yet decreased the need for food assistance. The country's economic infrastructure is shattered and employment prospects for most are bleak. A recently commissioned vulnerability survey by WFP indicates that child malnutrition, compared to 1994/95, has doubled in Bosnia. WFP is committed to continuing its relief efforts throughout 1996 to provide relief food to an estimated 1.9 million beneficiaries in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
An FAO/WFP-UNHCR Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in the second half of April to assess the area planted to winter crops, prospects for spring planting, forecast 1996 cereal production and review food aid requirements.
As a result of higher input costs, latest estimates put the area of winter wheat at 800 000 to 850 000 hectares, down from 910 000 hectares in the previous year. Although overwintering conditions have not been exceptionally severe, and good snowcover has generally protected crops from frost damage, yields are expected to be below normal because of late sowing, lack of fertilizers and the late arrival of spring weather to break dormancy. As a result, the output of winter wheat is not expected to exceed 2 million tons, just enough for domestic food needs even if normal weather conditions were to persist for the remainder of the season. The country would be more dependent on a good spring crops, especially maize, to meet its animal feed needs.
Favourable weather conditions last month benefited 1996 dormant winter grains. Overall production, however, is forecast to decline by 12 percent to 857 000 tons, due mainly to a 9 percent reduction in area planted to 206 000 hectares. Production of minor winter barley and rye crops is anticipated to increase to 92 000 tons and 5 000 tons respectively, reflecting larger plantings and higher expected yields.
Following a reduction in the number of returnees in recent months, it is estimated that there are still some 400 000 refugees in the country who need food aid assistance during 1996, not including a vulnerable population of 30 000, who receive food aid in Eastern Slavonia.
The area of 1996 winter crops is tentatively estimated to be similar to last year. Weather conditions have been satisfactory for dormant winter crop although the late onset of spring will delay the start of vegetative growth and could delay spring planting.
The early outlook for the 1996 cereal harvest is satisfactory Winter cereals benefited from good snowfall which also helped provide adequate soil moisture reserves for spring growth. There was ample time to plant crops and winterkill is thought to be limited. Area under cereals is anticipated to increase in response to high prices and reduced export availability in neighbouring states. However, yields will continue to be affected by the drawn-out process of land privatization, inadequate availability of credit and market disruption.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (1 April)
Prospects for the 1996 dormant winter cereal crops are mostly satisfactory. Adequate snow cover continues to protect crops from extreme cold temperatures, while regular precipitation maintained adequate soil moisture.
The food situation in the country is expected to improve as trade and economic links with neighbouring countries, in particular with the Federal Yugoslav Republic are being re- established. Food aid assistance continues to be distributed to some 5 000 refugees and vulnerable people.
Prospects for the 1996 winter crops remain generally satisfactory, although prolonged winter conditions have somewhat delayed the onset of spring growth. Winter wheat plantings are estimated to have remained below potential at about 1 million hectares because of farmers� limited financial resources. Good snowfalls over the winter have provided ample soil moisture for vegetative development this spring and for spring planting. However, the outcome of the winter crops and spring planting will still depend greatly on the weather and farmers� availability of finances for essential inputs.
Growing conditions for 1996 winter crops have been satisfactory to date and the area sown to winter rye is estimated to have increased. However, final output will depend crucially on area sown to spring feed crops and weather conditions in the spring and summer. Crop yields are likely to remain depressed as a result of low input use and difficulties in obtaining remunerative prices for livestock.
The Government has issued licenses for the import of 70 000 tons of wheat and 167 000 tons of feedgrains in 1995/96.
The early outlook for winter grains is satisfactory. The area sown increased marginally to 430 000 hectares and snow cover has generally been sufficient to protect winter grains from above average winterkill. The target area for spring grains is 500 000 hectares bringing the aggregate cereal area in 1996 to 930 000 tons, 12 percent less than in 1995. The cereal import requirement is officially put at 350 000 tons, including 50 000 tons of wheat and 300 000 tons of feedgrains.
Prospects for 1996 cereals remain mostly satisfactory. However, this winter is reported to have been the longest and coldest in nine years and as a result, crop losses are expected to be more than normal, especially where snowcover has been limited. As a result, although the winter grain area is officially estimated to have increased by about 4.6 percent, it is uncertain how much of this area has survived into spring. An estimated 1.8 million hectares of winter wheat was planted, 78 000 hectares more than the previous year. The area under rye increased by 146 000 hectares to 2.4 million hectares whilst barley increased about 31 000 hectares to 200 000 hectares. Winter barley and oilseeds are expected to be affected most by the severe winter conditions. For the 1996 cereal crop much will still depend on the area sown this spring. However, spring grains are generally lower yielding than their winter equivalents and aggregate cereal production may slip back from favourable production last year.
The 1996 winter crops are reported to be in good condition despite a harsh and long winter. Latest reports indicate that winter wheat was sown on some 2.1 million hectares compared to the above-average 2.4 million hectares in 1995 and, although germination was not as good as in the previous year, winterkill is not expected to be significant. Prospects for spring planting are uncertain as apart from prolonged wintery conditions, many farmers are short of finances for fieldwork and inputs. It is reported that some 3.0 million hectares planned to be sown to maize, barley and sunflower were left unploughed. However, in late March, the government approved 1.1 million lei in credits to assist farmers with spring field work.
Prospects for the 1996 winter grain crop are satisfactory. Winter wheat plantings are estimated to be similar to last year, and although winter conditions have persisted longer than normal, crops have generally been protected from frost damage by good snowcover.
The outlook for 1996 winter wheat is satisfactory. Good snow cover protected crops from severe temperatures and ensured adequate soil moisture reserves for spring growth. The area planted is reported to be average and a normal production is expected.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (1 April)
Growing conditions for the 1996 dormant winter wheat crop remain favourable. Adequate snow cover protected crops from extreme temperatures and light rains maintained ample soil moisture reserves. However, area planted is estimated to have declined by 11 percent compared to the previous year, due to financial difficulties on farm and diversion of land to more profitable industrial crops. As a result, production is forecast to decline sharply from last year�s below average level. To avoid shortages of wheat in the second half of the year, the Government has limited 1996 exports to 500 000 tons.
By contrast, the early outlook for spring cereal crops, mainly maize, is promising, reflecting adequate soil conditions and the Government�s announcement of improved availability of agricultural inputs and financial services to farmers. The target area for maize has been set at 1.5 million hectares, some 7 percent higher than 1995. If the target is met, production could be higher than last year's bumper crop.
WFP expected that requirements will gradually decrease, as some refugees will begin returning to the country. For planning purposes, WFP estimates that it will continue supplying food to 283 000 refugees in Serbia and 27 300 refugees in Montenegro, though overall tonnages have been reduced by 10 percent to reflect the projected gradual decrease in the caseload.
The full basic commodity basket (wheat flour, pulses, edible oil, salt, sugar and canned protein food) will continue to be distributed to especially vulnerable people living in collective centres, while those refugees living in private accommodation will receive the reduced commodity basket. WFP supplies only two basic commodities, wheat flout and pulses, while the European Community Humanitarian Office (ECHO) will provide the remaining commodities.