Harvesting of the 1996 cereal crops is well advanced. A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country found the rainfall this year has been abundant and relatively well distributed across the country. In most provinces the rains arrived on time in September and October, encouraging planting of maize in the higher lands of the central plateau and the planting of sorghum and millet further south. A dry period in December/January in Huambo and neighbouring provinces at tasselling, adversely affected seed formation in the first planted crops and required some replanting of maize, planted earlier in November. However, subsequent improvement and a continuation of rains in the same areas led to much better performance from crops planted in January and February on the intermediate lands and from those planted in February and March in the low-lying alluvial plains.
Large scale flooding of low lying plains in Bengo apparently reduced the area under cultivation in that province. Conversely, premature cessation of rains in the Southern provinces of Namibe, Cunene and in the southern parts of Cuando Cubango are likely to have reduced sorghum and millet yields in these areas.
The Mission forecast 1995/96 cereal production at 500 000 tons, comprising of 398 000 tons of maize and 102 000 tons of sorghum and millet. This is 62 percent more than last year�s estimates due to a recovery of production stimulated by the provision of tools and seeds, better rainfall distribution and no serious outbreaks of pests or diseases. The production of pulses, grown either with maize or with root and tuber crops, is thought to have increased by 24 percent to some 55 000 tons. However, production has been limited in some areas by a severe shortage of hand tools and ploughshares, by the absence of fertilizer and plant protection chemicals and by disincentives to produce/harvest such as lack of marketing opportunities for surpluses and large scale robbery or destruction of standing crops.
Despite larger production, the food security situation will remain tight in 1996/97, because of lack of purchasing power in urban and rural areas, lack of infrastructure (roads and vehicles) and restricted movement of traders. The Mission estimated cereal import requirements for 1996/97 at 442 000 tons. With commercial cereal imports at 200 000 tons, a shortfall of 242 000 tons has to be met by emergency and programme food aid. The Mission identified a requirement of 129 000 tons of emergency food aid for an estimated 1.375 million people which is covered by supplies already in the country or in the pipeline. The net deficit to be covered by programme food aid is, therefore, 113 000 tons. Against this requirement, total pledges by donors amount to 112 000 tons, including 57 000 tons of emergency assistance and 55 000 tons of programme food aid. Deliveries stand at 24 000 tons of which 5 000 tons are for emergencies.
Above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country generally benefited the 1995/96 season crops now being harvested. However, recent rains since April have delayed harvest in some areas. Maize production is estimated at 12 000 tons, more than double last year�s drought-reduced crop of 5 000 tons. Sorghum and millet harvests are expected to reach 75 000 tons, which is also double last year�s level and above average.
The food security situation for the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory. The substantial increase in production will reduce the need for external assistance and commercial channels should cover required import needs, provisionally estimated at 195 000 tons.
Rainfall during the 1995/96 season has been abundant and well distributed, resulting in substantial increases in area planted. Maize output is forecast at 125 000 tons, which is above-average, and much higher than last year�s output estimated at 72 000 tons. Sorghum is expected to reach 30 000 tons, and total coarse grain crop is expected to be double last year�s crop and slightly above average.
The food supply situation for the 1996/97 marketing season should improve substantially as a result of increased production. However, some 235 000 tons of cereals will need to be imported, of which 150 000 tons of commercial imports and 70 000 tons of relief assistance. Food aid pledges so far amount to 11 900 tons and deliveries stand at 4 000 tons.
The 1995/96 season rainfall was abundant and relatively well distributed in most of the growing areas of the country. The impact of cyclones and pests on crops was relatively small. As a result, prospects are favourable for most crops.
Harvesting of the main season foodcrops is well advanced. Production of paddy is provisionally forecast at 2.46 million tons, which is above average and over last year�s relatively good crop. The increase is mainly due to large plantings encouraged by favourable rainfall activity throughout the season. However, yields remain low as in the past several years, given watershed degradation and inadequate irrigation infrastructure maintenance. Maize output is expected to reach 164 000 tons, which is also above average. Other crops such as cassava and potatoes are also expected to perform well this year.
At the forecast production level, the country is expected to cover most of its rice requirement this year. The food supply situation is expected to improve considerably particularly in drought prone areas in the south. A major problem for marketing activities remains the poor state of transportation which makes it difficult to move goods from surplus to deficit areas.
Generally good rainfall was recorded in most parts of the country during the 1995/96 season, providing favourable growing conditions for crops. Northern areas which received their first rains in December continued to receive some beneficial precipitation in April and May. No serious threat of pests have been reported this year. As a result, an above average crop is expected for the coarse grain crop, harvesting of which is well advanced in most areas.
The first official crop estimates indicate a maize output of 1.9 million tons in 1996 including some 200 000 tons in the estate sector. This is much above average and very close to the 1993 record. Significant increases in production are forecast for other crops like rice and sorghum.
Due to the increase in output, the food supply situation in the country is expected to improve significantly and cover consumption requirements. With harvesting underway in most areas, foodcrop prices have decreased and most households now have better access to food.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country estimated that total area planted to cereals and other foodcrops during the 1995/96 production year reached some 3.4 million hectares, 2.7 percent higher than in the previous year. The 1995/96 main season in most parts of the country was characterized by above average levels of precipitation, particularly during the second half of January and the beginning of February. Excessive rains during that period caused floods that damaged or destroyed some 170 000 hectares of foodcrops, including 105 000 hectares of maize. Therefore, the total area to be harvested this year is expected to be 2.4 percent lower than in 1994/95.
Total 1995/96 production of cereals is provisionally estimated at 1.375 million tons, 22 percent above last year, and about 75 percent higher than the drought-affected harvest in 1993/94. Maize production in 1995/96 is estimated at 947 200 tons, 29 percent above last year's output. This increase reflects a 34 percent increase in yields, partly offset by a 10 percent reduction in the area harvested. A total of 105 000 hectares of maize are estimated to have been lost because of the floods.
Aggregate production of sorghum and millet is forecast at 288 000 tons, some 4 percent higher than the previous year. Paddy output is forecast at 139 400 tons, 23 percent higher than in 1994/95. More than half the increase in production of paddy will be registered in the province of Zambezia, where output is expected to increase by almost 30 percent relative to the previous year. The total production of beans is expected to reach some 140 000 tons, only 4 percent higher than the relatively low level of the previous year. The total output of cassava is estimated at some 4.7 million tons (fresh roots), some 13 percent higher than in 1994/95.
The national food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to improve considerably, particularly in the North and the Centre. These provinces are expected to be largely self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs and will even generate higher marketable surpluses of maize than during the previous marketing year.
The total cereal import requirement in 1996/97 is estimated at 300 000 tons, some 33 percent below the same period in 1995/96. This includes about 77 000 tons of maize. An average of 154 000 people will need approximately 24 948 tons of maize and 2 217 tons of pulses as emergency food assistance during the 1996/97 marketing year. Most of the emergency food aid requirement for direct distribution and food for work projects could be met with local purchases in surplus areas, mainly in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Manica, Niassa and Tete. Donors are urged to make all possible efforts to purchase these surpluses early in the marketing year. Pledges amount to 98 000 tons of which 15 000 tons (all maize) have been delivered, including 9 000 tons for emergencies and 6 000 tons of programme food aid.
Rainfall has been erratic and below normal in most parts of the country during the 1995/ 96 growing season. After a late start to the season, favourable rains were received in most regions in January and February. Rainfall was below normal in March while virtually no precipitation was recorded in April in the crop producing regions. As a consequence, yields were seriously affected, particularly for late planted crops which needed additional rains in March/April to mature in reasonably good condition. Livestock rearing regions, which were the most affected by poor rainfall, are now drought- stricken.
The recently completed second national crop assessment has provisionally forecast coarse grain production at 80 400 tons, including 15 900 tons of maize and 64 500 tons of sorghum/millet. This is only about two-thirds of what could be expected in a year of normal rainfall.
As a result of poor rainfall, the national food supply situation for the 1996/97 marketing season is expected to be tight, as large numbers of farmers remain food insecure. Total cereal import requirement in 1996/97 is provisionally estimated at 110 000 tons, of which 82 000 tons of coarse grains is to be covered by imports of maize. Pending the formal identification of the number and location of drought- affected people, the government has already established a provisional planning figure of 180 000 vulnerable people who may qualify for assistance under the Government Food Relief Programme. So far, food aid pledges amount to 10 000 tons.
The harvesting of coarse grains is well advanced and recent official estimates put the crop at some 11 million tons, including 10 million tons of maize, more than double last year�s production. This year's bigger crop reflects increased plantings and excellent summer rains. However, heavy rains in some regions resulted in floods and some crop damage as well as delays in harvesting.
The favourable rainfall benefited planting of 1996 winter wheat. An output of 2.4 million tons is anticipated compared to 2.1 tons in 1995.
Reflecting this year�s good crop, the food supply situation in 1996/97 is expected to improve substantially. At the forecast level, the country is expected to meet its domestic requirements and export a substantial amount of cereal crop during the season.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 coarse grain crop is almost complete in most areas. Rainfall since January has been favourable, resulting in an increase in area planted. However, continued rains throughout the country since April caused some damage to maize. This forced many farmers to commence harvesting in April/May, before the crop was fully ripened. The 1995/96 maize harvest is expected to reach 110 000 tons compared to the previous season's total of 76 000 tons. However, inadequate on-farm storage and drying facilities may lead to some damage for many farmers with abundant maize crops.
Due to expectations of a good harvest, the food security position of the country during the 1995/96 marketing year is expected to improve considerably. Total maize supply is expected to cover most of the domestic maize requirement. Cereal import requirement for 1996/97 is estimated at 84 000 tons, much of which could come from South Africa.
Harvesting of the coarse grain crop is well advanced and preliminary official forecast indicate an output of some 1.57 million tons, sharply up from last year�s drought-affected harvest. The maize crop is estimated at 1.49 million tons, which is above average and should be adequate to cover domestic needs and possibly generate an exportable surplus. This outcome of the season is the result of favourable rains during the 1995/96 crop season, limited impacts of pests and farmers access to credit and inputs.
The food supply situation in the country is expected to improve considerably during the 1996/97 marketing year. Cereal production is expected to be adequate to cover domestic consumption needs and may even allow for an exportable surplus. Reflecting the arrival of new foodcrops on the markets, maize prices have been dropping gradually for several weeks and household access to food is increasing.
The harvesting of coarse grains is advancing under generally favourable weather conditions. The good growing conditions reported in most areas during the 1995/96 crop season are confirmed by the official forecast of the maize crop which points to an output of some 2.6 million tons. This is three times last year�s output and one the highest level reached since the early 1980�s. Above average crops are also forecast for both sorghum and millet, respectively 107 000 and 110 000 tons.
Following above-average rainfall in major producing areas, most of the major irrigation dams are more than 55 percent full. As a result, a wheat crop of some 350 000 tons is anticipated this season, substantially higher than last year. Reflecting the favourable outcome of the growing season, the food supply situation is expected to improve considerably during the 1996/97 marketing year. Maize supply is expected to cover requirements, including the replenishment of strategic grain reserves, substitute for the sorghum/millet deficit and generate an exportable surplus.