A widespread escalation of violence since April, affecting provinces which previously had been calm, has caused over 1 000 deaths, including personnel from international organizations. It has also resulted in the displacement of at least 100 000 people and has hampered distribution of humanitarian assistance, as several organizations have suspended operations. The situation is particularly serious in Gitega, Cibitoke, Bubanza and Muramvya provinces.

Prospects for the 1996 B foodcrops, now being harvested, have deteriorated as a result of a dry spell from mid-April to mid- May, which severely affected yields. In the most affected provinces, yields will also be negatively affected by insecurity which disrupted crop husbandry activities and hampered provision of agricultural inputs and technical assistance. Crop output is anticipated to be below average and lower than last year.

DJIBOUTI (5 June)

Seasonal rains in April and May brought relief to pastoral areas, affected by severe dry weather conditions in the previous rainy seasons from September to November. These rains should improve pasture conditions and the health of animals.

Although the poor vegetative and water conditions resulted in unusual migration patterns of the nomad population, the drought and lack of adequate pasture are reported to have resulted in increased incidence of diseases and mortality among livestock. As livestock is the main economic activity in the country, the food situation of the affected population is very tight with serious malnutrition reported in the Tadjoura and Obock districts. Out of a nomad population of some 100 000 in the country, the Government has requested emergency food assistance for 28 000 most affected people, (including 7 000 farmers and 21 000 herders), for a period six months.

ERITREA (5 June)

Planting of the 1996 coarse grain crops is well advanced. Early prospects are promising reflecting timely and above average rains in April and May in most growing areas.

Following last year�s sharply reduced cereal harvest, the food situation is anticipated to deteriorate in the months ahead to the next harvest in October/November. Against food aid requirements of 191 000 tons in 1996, food aid pledges by the end of May amounted to only 62 000 tons, of which 22 000 tons have been delivered. Food aid assistance is urgently needed for people who harvested a poor crop and for large sections of the population that even in good years have not enough land resources to cover their food needs.

ETHIOPIA* (5 June)

The outlook for the 1996 secondary �belg� crop, accounting for some 7 percent of total cereal production, but which is the main crop in some areas, is favourable. Despite a late start to the rainy season, generally abundant rainfall from March to May benefited development of crops. The output of �belg� crops is forecast to be normal to above normal and the 1995/96 aggregate cereal and pulse production is likely to reach the forecast level of 9.4 million tons, an increase of 13 percent from the previous year.

The rains of the past months have also allowed planting and establishment of the 1996 main �meher� long-cycle maize and sorghum crops and have provided abundant soil moisture for sowing of short-cycle wheat, barley and teff crops. In the nomadic zones of South and East Borna, Ogaden and the Bale lowlands, where the �belg� rains are the main rainy season, pasture and livestock conditions have improved considerably in the past months.

As a result of the last year�s record �meher� cereal and pulse crop, the food supply situation is stable and food prices have decreased from last year to the levels of 1994. Despite a satisfactory food supply situation, food assistance is still required in parts where the harvest was reduced and in traditionally food deficit areas of Tigray, North Wollo, Walaita and Hararghe zones. Food aid requirements are expected to be covered with carryover stocks and through local purchases.

KENYA (27 June)

In April, below-normal rainfall over important maize growing areas in the Rift Valley, delayed planting and adversely affected recently planted crops. Subsequent rainfall in May, improved soil moisture, but came too late to avoid a reduction in plantings and yields. More rains are still needed.

The outlook for the maize crop was unfavourable even before the dry spell, due to high input costs and low producer prices, that reduced plantings. In contrast, record wheat plantings are expected, due to high producer prices and diversion of land from barley and maize.

Adverse weather also affected important bean growing areas in Eastern Province, resulting in severe losses. The 1996 secondary �short rains� cereal harvest was seriously reduced in this region and, therefore, the food situation needs to be monitored closely.

Due to prospects of average cereal production this year and the export of 400 000 tons of maize in 1996, the supply situation for maize remains tight and imports will be necessary, together with those of wheat, to cover consumption requirements. In spite of requirement, imports are likely to be constrained by high international prices, the high cost of transport and import duties. Imports of 100 000-200 000 tons are anticipated from Uganda. It is presently estimated that the National Cereals and Produce Board is holding 3.5 million bags (90 kg) of cereals, of which some 1.5 million bags is being reserved for relief distribution in various parts of the country, especially the Eastern Province.

RWANDA* (18 June)

A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country found that the 1996 �B� season was characterized by an increase in planted area, with major increases for sorghum and potatoes (17 percent) and pulses (14 percent). These developments reflect improved stability in interior areas and the resumption of regular agricultural activities by a considerable number of returning refugees. Growing conditions have been generally favourable, with timely and regular rainfall except for some pockets of severe drought.

The Mission estimated the 1996 �B� season cereal output at 109 000 tons, including 85 000 tons of sorghum, 13 000 tons of maize and some 5 500 tons each of wheat and rice (paddy). The output of pulses is estimated at 72 000 tons, 607 000 tons for roots and tubers and 1 049 000 tons for bananas. Compared to the 1995 �B� season, these estimates suggest an increase of 38 percent for cereals, 20 percent for pulses and 14 percent for roots and tubers, with banana output at about the same level. Despite these improvements, total estimated food crop production is still 23 percent below the pre-crisis level of 1990.

The flow of returning refugees has slowed recently and is estimated by the Mission to average 10 000 people per month in 1996. Based on this assumption, the total population as of September 1996 is projected at 6 318 000. At the forecast production level, import requirements for the second semester of 1996 are estimated at 35 000 tons of cereals (including 12 000 tons of cereal equivalent corresponding to the shortfall in roots and tuber production) and 28 000 tons of pulses. After allowance for likely commercial imports, the Mission estimates a deficit of 20 000 tons of cereals and 19 000 tons of pulses in the second half of 1996. About three-quarters of the food aid required to cover the deficit would be targeted at emergency programmes, for the reconstruction of dwellings and the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector and rural infrastructure.

Taking into account production in the first semester of 1996 (�A�), the Mission estimates total 1996 production of cereals at 182 000 tons (29 percent higher than in 1995 but well below average), of pulses at 189 000 tons (40 percent higher) and that of roots and tubers and of bananas at 1 144 000 tons and 2 106 000 tons (30 and 5 percent higher), respectively.

In preparation for the 1997 �A� campaign, priority efforts will need to be directed towards the multiplication and large- scale diffusion of disease-free planting material for cassava and sweet potatoes as well as the provision at affordable cost of such inputs as selected seeds for pulses and maize, and mineral fertilizer and pesticides. However, there is still a need to look beyond the next agricultural season towards a thorough rehabilitation of the agricultural sector. International assistance will be especially important for the rehabilitation of the tea, coffee and livestock sectors.

In a Round Table Conference held in Geneva on 20 and 21 June 1996, donors pledged U.S.$ 617 million to support the Government�s Development Programme for 1996-98, against requirements of U.S.$ 832 million.

SOMALIA* (5 June)

Below-normal rains in May in main growing areas in the south have reduced soil moisture for recently planted maize and sorghum crops of the 1996 main �Gu� season. More rains are needed to avoid a reduction in the yield potential. An estimate of the area planted is not yet available but providing weather remains good for the remainder of the growing season, the output is forecast to increase from the sharply reduced level of last year.

In northern pastoral areas, affected by severe dry weather in the two previous rainy seasons, above average rains in May, which were heavy in parts, improved pasture and animal conditions. However, the lack of grazing and adequate water supplies in the past months, resulted in loss of livestock and left large sections of the population vulnerable.

Following last year�s poor �Gu� harvest, and difficulties for the distribution of food assistance due to insecurity, the food supply position is anticipated to remain very tight until the next harvest from mid-July. Reports from Lower Juba region indicate that the food situation has deteriorated and a large number of people have migrated to Kismayo and other areas because of acute food shortages and increasing malnutrition. The situation is particularly serious in the Sakaw and Bu�alle districts and in recently created camps on the border with Kenya. Emergency food assistance is urgently needed in these areas. In Mogadishu, despite food supplies in the markets, the reduced purchasing power of the majority of the population severely limit their access to food. The situation has been aggravated by the escalation of the conflict in southern Mogadishu, which has meant the suspension of all humanitarian operations. Cases of malnutrition are reported.

Cereal import requirements in 1995/96 (September/August) are estimated at 320 000 tons, of which 195 000 tons have to be covered by food aid. Against these requirements, pledges until the end of May amounted to only 24 100 tons of which 20 000 tons have been delivered.

SUDAN* (5 June)

Harvesting of the 1996 wheat crop is complete. Preliminary estimates indicate an above-average output of 527 000 tons, lower than anticipated but still 18 percent above the reduced level of 1995. The increase in production reflects favourable weather, absence of pests and an increase in planting in response to higher prices.

Plantings of the 1996 main season coarse grains is about to start and early prospects are favourable. However, in some areas of the mechanized sector, shortages of fuel have delayed field work. The desert locust situation remains calm.

Official estimates of 1995 coarse grain output have been revised down; millet production is put at 385 000 tons, some 40 percent of the previous year�s bumper crop, while the output of sorghum is estimated to be a third lower at 2.4 million tons. At this level, the aggregate production of coarse grains is below average and 39 percent lower than 1995. The reduction in the estimate of sorghum production is mainly due to a decline in the mechanized and surplus growing area of Gedaref. By contrast, lower production estimates of millet, primarily produced in the depressed eastern region of Darfur indicate that the already precarious food situation in this area following the 1995 poor harvest, will deteriorate further later in the year.