Due to favourable weather and above-normal rainfall at the beginning of the growing season, the output of the 1996 wheat crop is likely to exceed last year's above-average harvest of 1.6 million tons. Following an increase in area planted, production of barley is expected to recover sharply from 0.54 million tons in 1995.
Imports of wheat, excluding semolina, in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to increase by 200 000 tons to 4 million tons. Imports of coarse grains, mainly maize, are forecast at 1.05 million tons, some 50 000 tons more than 1995/96.
During the first three weeks of May, hopper bands of Desert Locust continued to mature and form immature swarms at a density of 200-300 per sq. meter. From mid-month onwards there were reports of mature adult groups between Ahnet Mouydir and Tamanrasset as well as near Illizi. Extensive breeding has recently been reported within a large area from Tamanrasset and Adrar to the Libyan border near Illizi and Djanet. Control operations were carried out on more than 9 000 hectares of late instar hopper bands.
Following a decline in the area sown, production of wheat in 1996 is expected to be marginally lower than last year's level of 5.72 million tons. Procurement price for the 1995/96 wheat crop has been set at Egyptian pounds 700 (U.S.$ 205) per ton. Reflecting a sharp decline in the area sown, the output of barley is estimated to decrease markedly from the 1995 record of 0.37 million tons, but to remain above average.
The production of wheat in 1995 is estimated to have increased by some 1.3 million tons to a record 5.7 million tons while maize output, estimated at 5.7 million tons was about average. Paddy production was also above average and increased by some 200 000 tons to 4.8 million tons.
Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to decrease by some 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million tons. Imports of coarse grains, mainly maize, are expected to remain at last year's level of 2.6 million tons.
As a result of above-normal rains and increased plantings, production of wheat is expected at the above-average level of 5.8 million tons, up from the drought-affected 1995 crop of only 1.1 million tons. However, some damage to the crop could result from late heavy rains in May. Following the poor 1995 crop of 0.6 million tons, barley output this year is expected at the record level of 3.8 million tons.
Cumulative rains at the end of April were 60 percent higher than normal. This has resulted in a sharp increase in the level of water reservoirs, currently estimated at a record 7.5 billion cubic meters. Imports of wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to decline by 2 million tons to 1 million tons, whereas imports of coarse grains, forecast at 0.7 million tons, are virtually unchanged from last year.
Isolated pink adult locusts were present near the Algerian border in Wadi Lamrhimine on the 16th of May. By the end of the month small groups of pink adults were seen flying south of Oum Dreiga, Boucraa and Almahbes. Current infestations will decline as conditions continue to become unfavourable for breeding and the remaining adult groups move towards the summer breeding areas of the Sahel.
Reflecting abundant and well-distributed rains from the beginning of the growing season, larger area sown - one third more than last year - and increased use of fertilizers, the 1996 cereal crop is estimated at a record 2.65 million tons after two years of markedly reduced harvests. Wheat production (mostly durum wheat) is estimated at 1.84 million tons, more than three times the drought-affected 1995 crop. Barley output, estimated at 0.8 million tons, is ten times larger than last year's crop and twice the average.
The Government aims at achieving self-sufficiency in cereals within 10 years. As part of an effort to guarantee production of at least 1 million tons in drought years, the Government's plans include doubling the irrigated area to 120 000 hectares by the year 2000. Farmers are also being encouraged to modernize systems of production, collection and storage.
Pasture conditions are reported to be satisfactory. Reflecting good availability, forage prices declined considerably compared to the high levels of the last two years.
Imports of wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) are estimated to decrease by 700 000 tons to 0.6 million tons and limited to soft wheat. Imports of maize are forecast to remain at last year's level of 0.25 million tons.