Harvesting of 1996 cereal crops is complete. Aggregate production is estimated at some 500 000 tons, including 398 000 tons of maize and 102 000 tons of sorghum/millet. This is above average and 68 percent higher than last year. The production of pulses, grown either with maize or with root and tuber crops, is estimated to have increased by 24 percent to some 55 000 tons. Recovery in production is attributed to abundant and relatively well distributed rainfall during the growing season, the provision of tools and seeds and no serious outbreaks of pests or diseases.
Despite increased production, the food supply situation will remain tight in the 1996/97 marketing year. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in April/May, estimated cereal import requirements for 1996/97 at 442 000 tons, including 200 000 tons of commercial imports. Some 129 000 tons of cereal are required as emergency food aid for an estimated 1.375 million people. This can be covered by supplies already in the country or in the pipeline. Total food aid pledges amount to 165 000 tons so far, including 143 000 tons of emergency assistance and 22 000 tons of programme food aid. Deliveries as of the end of July stand at 99 000 tons of which 91 000 tons are for emergencies.
Following above-normal rainfall, the recently harvested 1995/96 cereal crop is now forecast at 81 000 tons. This is slightly lower than initial estimates but above average and still double last year�s output. Maize production is estimated at 23 000 tons, over four times higher than last year�s drought-reduced crop of 5 000 tons. The output of sorghum and millet jas been revised down to 59 000 tons, which is above average and still much higher than last year.
The food supply situation for the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to be satisfactory. As a result of the substantial increase in production, cereal availability has improved noticeably and a cereal import requirement of some 230 000 tons for the marketing year should be covered by commercial channels.
Following abundant and well distributed rainfall, total cereal production for 1995/96 is estimated at 166 000 tons, which is above-average and 86 percent higher than last year. The output of maize is estimated at 125 000 tons, which is also above-average and 70 percent above last year. Sorghum output is expected to reach 30 000 tons.
Due to the increase in production, the food supply situation for the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to improve substantially. However, some 235 000 tons of cereals will need to be imported, including 70 000 tons for relief assistance to people affected by last year�s drought. The situation was made worse by heavy snowfalls in mid-July, which particularly affected vulnerable households. As a result, the Government has appealed for further emergency assistance from the international community. Food aid pledges amount to 41 000 tons, of which 32 000 tons have been delivered so far.
The 1995/96 main season harvest is now virtually complete. Following abundant and relatively well distributed rainfall in most of the growing areas of the country, the production of paddy, the major foodcrop, is estimated at some 2.5 million tons. This is above-average and over last year�s relatively good crop. However, yields remain low as in the past several years, given watershed degradation and inadequate irrigation infrastructure maintenance. Maize output is expected to reach 164 000 tons, which is also above- average. The favourable rainfall activity also benefited other crops such as cassava and potatoes.
The food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to improve considerably. The country is expected to cover most of its rice needs, reducing considerably the import requirements. In drought prone areas of the south, cereal, vegetables and fruit supply have been abundant since May and prices are relatively low compared to the previous year. However, a major problem for marketing activities in the south and many parts of the country remains the poor state of transportation which makes it difficult to move goods from surplus to deficit areas.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 coarse grain crop is complete. Total cereal production is estimated at 2 million tons, which is above average. Maize output is estimated at 1.9 million tons. This is much above average and very close to the 1993 record crop. As a result of favourable growing conditions which benefited most crops, significant increases in production are also expected for rice, sorghum and soybean.
The food supply situation in the country is expected to improve significantly during the marketing year 1996/97. The expected harvest will cover most of the consumption requirements, including the replenishment of stocks, leading to a substantial reduction in import needs. With markets adequately supplied, foodcrop prices have decreased substantially. Food aid pledges by donors currently amount to about 50 000 tons and deliveries at the end of July totalled 4 000 tons.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 main crop is virtually complete in most parts of the country. Reflecting above-average rainfall, total cereal output is estimated at an above-average 1.4 million tons, 22 percent above last year. Maize production is estimated at 947 000 tons, 29 percent higher than last year. The output of sorghum and millet is forecast at 289 000 tons, some 4 percent higher than the previous year. Paddy output is forecast at 139 400 tons, 23 percent above 1994/95. Cassava production (fresh roots) is estimated at some 4.7 million tons, some 13 percent higher than in 1994/95, whilst the output of beans is expected to reach some 140 000 tons.
The food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to improve considerably. As in the previous marketing year, provinces in the north and the centre are expected to be largely self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs and will even generate higher marketable surpluses of maize.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country estimated total cereal import requirement of 300 000 tons in 1996/97, 33 percent below the same period in 1995/96. Some 154 000 people will need approximately 25 000 tons of maize and 2 200 tons of pulses as emergency food assistance during the 1996/97 marketing year. Most of the emergency food aid requirement could be met with local purchases in surplus areas, mainly in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Manica, Niassa and Tete. Donors are urged to make efforts to purchase these surpluses early in the marketing year. So far, pledges amount to 122 000 tons, of which 35 000 tons have been delivered.
Following below-normal rainfall, total cereal production in 1996 is estimated at 86 000 tons, including 65 000 tons of sorghum/millet and 16 000 tons of maize. Although this is much higher than last year�s drought-affected output, it is about two-thirds of what could be expected in a year of normal rainfall.
The national food supply situation in the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to be relatively satisfactory as cereal stocks and planned imports of 110 000 tons should cover consumption requirement. However, large numbers of farmers remain food insecure, particularly in livestock rearing regions, which were the most affected by poor rainfall and are now drought-stricken. The government declared a drought- emergency in June and established a provisional planning figure of 180 000 vulnerable people who may qualify for assistance under the Food Relief Programme. Grazing conditions in most areas are very poor, serious water shortages are being experienced in many areas and farmers are being encouraged to reduce livestock. The Government has requested international assistance, particularly for water projects with medium and long-term development impacts.
The harvesting of coarse grains is virtually complete in most areas. Recent official estimates put the crop at some 11 million tons, including 10 million tons of maize, more than double last year�s production. Higher production is attributed to increased planting and favourable growing conditions. As a result of excellent rainfall, an output of 2.4 million tons is anticipated of 1996 winter wheat, compared to 2.1 tons in 1995.
Due to favourable production, the food supply situation in 1996/97 is expected to improve substantially. At the forecast level, the country is expected to meet its domestic requirements and export a substantial amount of cereals during the season. Maize trade was deregulated in May and private traders allowed to export up to 1.8 million tons this season. Export permits have already been issued for some 1.6 million tons. The government anticipates total maize exports of about 2.5 million tons but, given high world prices and global shortages of maize, some observers are concerned that export volumes may be much larger and create a shortage in the domestic market, pushing up the price of maize and leading to imports later in the season.
Harvesting of the 1995/96 coarse grain crop is over and total cereal production is estimated at 112 000 tons, 40 percent above 1994/95. The maize harvest is estimated at 108 000 tons, 42 percent higher than output in the previous year. This is slightly lower than initial estimates, as inadequate on-farm storage and drying facilities lead to losses of part of the maize harvest. The substantial increase in output is largely due to favourable rainfall experienced in most parts of the country during the growing season, which resulted in a substantial increase in the area planted.
The food supply situation is expected to improve considerably during the 1996/97 marketing year. Total maize supply is expected to cover most of the domestic requirements and total cereal imports are estimated at 58 000 tons. This is much lower than the previous year and could be largely met through commercial channels. Under the Drought Relief Programme, food aid pledges carried over from last year amount to 6 000 tons so far, all of which have now been delivered.
The total production of the recently harvested cereal crop is estimated at 1.6 million tons, 78 percent higher than the drought-affected harvest in 1995. The maize crop is now estimated at 1.41 million tons. This is slightly below earlier estimates on account of continued rains in May/June when the crop was being harvested and was drying, but it is still above average and double last year�s output.
The food supply situation in the country is expected to improve considerably during the 1996/97 marketing year. Total cereal availability is expected to cover domestic needs including the replenishment of depleted stock reserves. The Government recently issued export permits to private traders for 50 000 tons of maize. With the continued arrival of new grains in the market, especially from South Africa, prices of maize are expected to continue to fall.
The harvesting of coarse grains is complete. Total cereal production is expected to slightly exceed 3 million tons, which is above-average. Unseasonable rainfall in late May to mid-June slowed the drying of grains and marketing activities in several central and eastern areas. Nonetheless, the maize crop stands at 2.5 million tons, which is slightly below earlier estimates but still three times above 1995 and one of the highest levels reached since the 1980s. The output of sorghum and millet is also expected to be above-average, at 107 000 and 110 000 tons respectively. Reflecting the above- average rainfall recorded in major producing areas, the winter wheat crop is expected to exceed 300 000 tons this season, which is above-average and more than double last year�s output.
The food supply situation is expected to improve considerably during the 1996/97 marketing year. Maize supply is expected to cover requirements, including the replenishment of strategic grain reserves, substitute for the sorghum/millet deficit and generate an exportable surplus. The government has recently announced plans to remove restrictions on wheat and soybean exports in line with on-going market liberalization measures. However, the state-owned Grain Marketing Board would maintain its monopoly on the export of maize, the country's main staple crop.