Food Outlook 09/96 Basic Facts

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1992/93	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97 forecast	Change 1996/97 over 1995/96
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	566	564	527	545	571	+ 4.8
Coarse grains	878	810	891	813	875	+ 7.6
Rice, milled	355	356	362	372	375	+ 0.8
(paddy)	(530)	(531)	(539)	(554)	(558)	(+ 0.7)
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 799	1 730	1 779	1 730	1 821	+ 5.2
Developing countries	914	934	928	964	988	+ 2.5
Developed countries	885	797	851	766	833	+ 8.8
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	94	94	91	85	- 6.7
Coarse grains	93	85	90	91	82	- 9.0
Rice (milled)	15	16	21	19	19	- 2.1
All cereals	210	196	204	201	186	- 7.3
Developing countries	128	130	148	145	136	- 6.1
Developed countries	83	66	57	56	50	- 10.3
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	15.2	12.8	9.3	7.7 4/
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	555	569	553	554	564	+ 1.9
Coarse grains	849	839	882	850	862	+ 1.4
Rice (milled)	355	359	368	375	379	+ 1.2
All cereals	1 760	1 767	1 803	1 778	1 805	+ 1.5
Developing countries	996	1 017	1 049	1 077	1 095	+ 1.7
Developed countries	764	750	754	701	710	+ 1.3
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	170	170	170	170	170	-
Developed countries	128	130	129	129	130	+ 0.7
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	144	136	110	104	111	+ 6.2
Coarse grains	169	140	147	109	118	+ 8.0
Rice (milled)	67	63	54	53	49	- 7.9
All cereals	381	339	312	266	277	+ 4.1
Developing countries	167	169	158	158	152	- 4.1
Developed countries	214	170	153	108	125	+ 16.3
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	22	19	18	15	15
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	278	250	289	336	363 6/	+ 14.5 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	143	157	216	198 8/	+ 5.2 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	97	113	104	159	192 8/	+ 51.2 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.1	15.1	19.0	16.8	13.0 8/	- 31.8 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	325	339	340	342
Cereal production 1/	858	884	878	916	930	+ 1.6
Per caput production (kg.)	250	253	247	254	253	- 0.2
Cereal imports 2/	65	62	74	76	63	- 17.0
of which: Food aid 3/	10.2	7.4	7.6	6.0
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	16	12	10	8

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for January-August 1996.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Average of quotations for July-August 1996
9/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.