World cassava output in 1996 is forecast to grow by 3 percent to 169
million tons of fresh roots, mainly reflecting increases in Africa and Latin
America. Production in Africa, the leading production zone, is expected to
reach 88 million tons, or 4 percent above last year, as a result of favourable
climatic conditions, higher yields, increased plantings and, in some cases,
conducive government policies. Larger harvests are estimated for Angola,
Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Nigeria (the world's largest producer)
and Rwanda. In Benin, Côte d'Ivoire and Mozambique output is forecast
to be between 5-12 percent above last year. Similarly, in Nigeria, output
may reach a new record of about 35 million tons, or 10 percent above last
year. Overall, this is the result of government actions directed towards
large scale multiplication and diffusion of high yielding and disease resistant
planting material, a progressive replacement of existing varieties with new
ones and the promotion of new farm applications. By contrast, poor crops
are reported for Kenya and Burundi following respectively dry conditions
and civil strife that disrupted farming activities and also for Uganda and
Zaire as a result of reduced plantings and yields following a mosaic-virus
disease outbreak. Little change is anticipated in the output in other countries
of the region.
WORLD CASSAVA PRODUCTION 1/
|
|
1994 | 1995 | 1996 prelim. |
|
|
(. . . . . . million tons . . . . . .) | ||
| WORLD | 163.0 | 164.8 | 168.8 |
| Africa | 82.7 | 84.2 | 87.6 |
| Ghana | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.0 |
| Madagascar | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Mozambique | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Nigeria | 31.0 | 31.4 | 34.6 |
| Tanzania | 7.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Uganda | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Zaire | 18.0 | 18.9 | 18.8 |
| Asia | 49.1 | 48.2 | 47.8 |
| China | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| India | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Indonesia | 15.7 | 15.4 | 15.8 |
| Philippines | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Thailand | 19.1 | 18.2 | 17.7 |
| Viet Nam | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Latin America |
|
|
|
| and the | 31.0 | 32.2 | 33.2 |
| Caribbean |
|
|
|
| Brazil | 24.5 | 25.4 | 26.4 |
| Colombia | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Paraguay | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
SOURCE: FAO
1/ In fresh roots.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, cassava production is forecast to grow
in a number of countries, particularly in Brazil and Colombia. In Brazil,
the world's second largest cassava producing and processing country, output
in 1996 is expected to increase by 4 percent to reach 26.4 million tons,
largely as a result of an increase in plantings and the establishment of
a government price support for farmers. In Colombia, the rise in output,
although marginal, is the result of various measures implemented by the
Government to sustain and expand cultivation. In fact, the Government's four-year
plan for the improvement and strengthening the cassava agro-industry on the
Atlantic Coast has the objective of developing processing industries for
chips, pellets and flour to meet the growing domestic and foreign food and
feed demand for cassava and cassava products.
In Asia, the 1996 production is forecast at 47.8 million tons, virtually
the level of last year. Among the major producing countries in the region,
output in Thailand this year is forecast at 17.7 million tons, slightly lower
than in 1995, as a result of heavy monsoon rains throughout the country which
affected cassava roots and yields. Similarly in India, output is expected
to decline by 3 percent to 5.8 million tons, as plantings were damaged or
destroyed by a tropical cyclone which hit some of the main producing areas.
By contrast, in Indonesia, output in 1996 is expected to increase by 3 percent
from 1995 and to reach 15.8 million tons, mainly reflecting favourable weather
conditions.
Utilization of cassava follows closely domestic production in most
countries. In Africa, consumption of fresh cassava and products is likely
to have increased, partly as a result of rising domestic prices of cereals,
reflecting high import prices, and the disruption of the marketing systems
due to civil strife in some countries. In some countries, such as Benin,
Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo and Côte d'Ivoire, consumers
have reacted to a loss of purchasing power, following the devaluation of
the CFA currency, by increasing consumption of roots and tubers, including
cassava. As a result, in these countries, demand for domestically produced
substitutes for cereals, including cassava, is estimated to have risen sharply,
thus pushing up prices. In Nigeria, prices of cassava flour increased by
about 66 percent between May 1995 and May 1996. However, in spite of the
higher price and the removal of the export ban on cassava and products, per
caput consumption is expected to have continued its upward trend, as the
new varieties are proving to be superior to the traditional ones for a number
of food preparations.
In most countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, production increases
are likely to have resulted in greater usage of cassava as both food and
feed in 1996. In this region, cassava is evolving from a traditional staple
to a market oriented raw material for the manufacture of human food, livestock
feed and industrial products. In most Asian countries, in particular China,
India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea and Japan, domestic supplies are expected
to be further supplemented by imports of tapioca flour to meet the growing
demand for snack foods and industrial uses. Also in Thailand, usage of cassava
in feeds, alcohol and starch production is expected to expand, in line with
the government's policy to promote its use. In fact, out of the 17.7 million
tons of cassava roots expected to be produced this year, about 10 million
would be converted to tapioca pellets and 7.3 million tons would be used
to produce cassava flour, half of which for domestic consumption and half
for exports.
In the developed countries, particularly in the EC, despite the harvesting of a near record cereal crop, cassava utilization for animal feed is expected to increase because of its current price competitiveness vis-a vis other feed ingredients. In fact, in the latest eight months, the average quotation of cassava soybean mixtures in the Community was substantially lower than that of barley and since April 1996 it was also below the export price quotation for U.S. maize N.2 yellow (see table below).
World trade in dry cassava products in 1996 is currently estimated
to have reversed the downward trend established over the last few years and
to reach 6.4 million tons (16 million tons in fresh root equivalent), or
18 percent more than last year. This increase reflects larger shipments to
both the EC and non-EC countries largely as chips and pellets for feed, in
which the bulk of the international trade takes place. Trade in starch and
flour for food and industrial uses, accounting for an estimated 16 percent
of world trade, is also expected to rise.
WORLD TRADE IN CASSAVA 1/
|
|
1994 | 1995 | 1996 prelim. |
|
|
(. . . . . . million tons . . . . . .) | ||
| World Exports | 7.0 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| Thailand | 5.8 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Indonesia | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| China 2/ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Others | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
| World Imports | 7.0 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| EC 3/ | 5.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| China 2/ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Japan | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Korea. Rep. of | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Others | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
SOURCE: FAO
1/ In product weight of chips and pellets. including
starch and flour.
2/ Including Taiwan Province.
3/ Excluding trade between EC members.
Thailand and Indonesia continued to be the main suppliers to the world market,
covering about 80 percent and 10 percent of global exports, respectively.
Total shipments of cassava products from Thailand in 1996 are currently forecast
at 5.0 million tons or 22 percent above the sharply reduced level of last
year, with total export availability of chips and pellets amounting to 4.2
million tons. This volume would not be sufficient to fulfil Thailand's 5.25
million ton annual quota to the EC. For 1996, Thailand's cassava export quota
to the EC was allocated under the three track-mechanism, under which 3.0
million tons are allocated to exporters on the basis of stock-holding
1 [/ Four stock-checks were carried out by Thailand's Foreign Trade
Department (FTD). By assessing the stocks of tapioca pellets held by licensed
exporters, the FTD proposes the quota to be allocated to each exporter for
export to the Community. A minimum of 600 000 tons of quota is allocated
after each stock-check. ] , 1.5 million tons on exporter's past performance
2 [/ The FTD allocates to the exporters a quota of 375 000 tons,
proportionally to the quota assigned on stock check and on the basis of exports
made in previous years.] and 0.75 million tons on reserve 3 [/ The
FTD reserves a quota of 750 000 tons to allocate to exporters according to
rules and measures approved by the Ministry of Commerce. ] . Between January
and August this year, a total amount of 2.6 million tons of chips and pellets
have been shipped of which 2.2 million tons to the Community, mainly to the
Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal and Spain; 400 000 tons were exported to non-EC
countries, including Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Switzerland and
Turkey.
PRICES OF CASSAVA, SOYBEAN MEAL, BARLEY AND MAIZE IN THE EC
|
|
Cassava pellets 1/ |
Soybean meal 2/ |
Cassava soybean meal mixture 3/ |
Barley 4/ |
Maize U.S. No. 2 yellow 5/ |
|
|
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) | ||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1990 | 167 | 208 | 175 | 225 | 109 |
| 1991 | 178 | 197 | 186 | 222 | 107 |
| 1992 | 183 | 204 | 187 | 235 | 104 |
| 1993 | 137 | 208 | 151 | 197 | 102 |
| 1994 | 144 | 192 | 154 | 182 | 107 |
| 1995 | 177 | 197 | 181 | 209 | 124 |
| 1996 6/ | 158 | 263 | 179 | 200 | 184 |
SOURCE: FAO, Oil World and Agra Europe.
1/ F.o.b. Rotterdam (barge or rail) including 6% levy.
2/ Argentina 45/46 % proteins) c.i.f. Rotterdam.
3/ Consisting of 80% of cassava pellets and 20% of
soybean meal.
4/ Selling price of barley in Spain.
5/ Delivered U.S. Gulf ports.
6/ January-August average.
Given the good crop prospects, foreign
sales by Indonesia are also expected to be higher in 1996 compared to 1995.
However, as a result of the combined effect of strong domestic demand, the quota
allocation mechanism 4 [/ Under the " bonus quota mechanism" Indonesian
exporters were eligible to ship up to 2.6 tons to the EC for each ton exported
to non-EC countries in 1995.] and the high prices paid by non-EC countries for
chips and pellets in 1995, Indonesia may not fulfil its quota to the EC of 866
000 tons. Among the other exporters having co-operation agreements with the
EC, China is unlikely to reach its quota of some 360 000-370 000 tons and Vietnam
may not ship more than one third of its 30 000 ton allowance. Aggregate shipments
by minor exporters in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia are not
anticipated to reach more than 300 000 tons of which 146 000 tons are for the
EC market.
World imports are forecast to rise in 1996, reflecting higher demand by both
the EC and non-EC countries. Imports by the Community are forecast to increase
at least to 3.8 million tons, versus 3.2 million tons in 1995. They could
be higher depending on the availability of supplies in major exporting countries
and on future price relationships with domestic EC grains and oilmeals
5.Total purchases by non-EC countries in 1996 are currently forecast
at 2.6 million tons, or 18 percent above last year. Increases in imports,
especially in the form of chips and pellets, are estimated for Japan, the
Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Turkey. Purchases of cassava
flour, particularly native and modified starches, dextrin and others, may
also rise this year, mainly as a result of strong demand from Japan, China
and the Russian Federation.
----------------------------
1/ Four stock-checks were carried
out by Thailand's Foreign Trade Department (FTD). By assessing the stocks
of tapioca pellets held by licensed exporters, the FTD proposes the quota
to be allocated to each exporter for export to the Community. A minimum of
600 000 tons of quota is allocated after each stock-check.
2/ The FTD allocates to the
exporters a quota of 375 000 tons, proportionally to the quota assigned on
stock check and on the basis of exports made in previous years.
3/ The FTD reserves a quota
of 750 000 tons to allocate to exporters according to rules and measures
approved by the Ministry of Commerce.
4/ Under the " bonus quota
mechanism" Indonesian exporters were eligible to ship up to 2.6 tons to the
EC for each ton exported to non-EC countries in 1995.
5/ Cassava pellets, used as substitutes
for grains in animal feed rations, need to be supplemented with protein meals
(e.g. mixture of 80 percent of cassava pellets and 20 percent soybean meals).
As a result, cassava prices in importing countries are closely linked to
domestic grain and oilmeals prices. However, the use of a protein meal in
feeding depends on its relative value, compared to other proteins and compared
to grains. As the Community is by far the largest market for protein meals
and feeding stuffs in general, the high grain prices which have prevailed
earlier this year, made cassava mixtures more competitive in feed rations
compared to feedgrains in spite of strong oilmeals prices.
In the first eight months of 1996, the EC import price for cassava pellets, the major cassava product traded internationally, continued to trend downward averaging U.S.$ 158 per ton, or 10 percent below the price in the corresponding period in 1995. This decline reflected low domestic prices in Thailand due to poor quality root crops and despite the effect of higher prices of soybean meal in the EC for compound feeds. In fact, in the same period, soybean pellets from Argentina (c.i.f. Rotterdam) averaged U.S.$ 263 per ton, or 44 percent above the level of U.S.$ 183 in the corresponding period of 1995. Despite the increase in soybean meal prices, however, cassava/soybean mixtures continued to remain attractively priced in relation to feedgrains in the EC markets.
Preliminary indications for global cassava production in 1997 point to some
recovery in major Asian countries. Expectations of higher export returns
from value added sales of starch, flour and other
products suggest that traditional plant material in the main exporting countries
will be replaced by new, higher-yielding varieties with a high starch content
suitable for processing to meet the rising demand for tapioca products
domestically and abroad. In Africa, output could increase in some countries
due to producers' responses to higher cassava prices, to a recovery in plantings
following drought and to the on-going diffusion of recently introduced
high-yielding and pest-resistant varieties. An increase might also occur
in Latin America and the Caribbean as technical improvements and higher producer
prices are expected to induce farmers to increase the area under cultivation.
The volume of world cassava trade in 1997 will depend on various factors,
including price developments for grains and soybeans in the EC and the
availability of supplies in major exporting countries. A reduction of the
set-aside area for cereals in the EC to 5 percent for the 1997 crop year
to stimulate grain production could result in a drop in domestic grain prices.
This in turn could render cassava less competitive in feed rations and reduce
import demand of alternative feedstuffs, including cassava chips and pellets.
Export supplies could be particularly affected by possible revisions to
Thailand's export policy, which are currently under consideration, with respect
to the allocation of quotas.