Insecurity persist in the country, with renewed fighting reported in the northern part of Cibitoke in late December, but also in southern Bujumbura rural and in Kayanza. The renew fighting has resulted in some 100 000 new refugees entering Tanzania. The massive return of some 239 000 refugees presently in Tanzania could have serious security and humanitarian repercussions.
The food supply situation remains tight in provinces most affected by civil strife, where plantings and production have been reduced in the past seasons, as well as for returnees and displaced populations. In general, the combined effect of domestic production below pre-crisis levels and the current embargo on food imports and petrol, have resulted in sharp increase in prices of basic food limiting the access to food of the majority of the population.
An estimate of the 1997 first season is not yet available. However, despite overall good rains during the season, production is likely to have been affected by insecurity and by shortages of agricultural inputs, mainly seeds and fertilisers.
A FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission plans to visit the country in late January.
An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in October 1996 found that the 1996 second foodcrop season started under favourable agroclimatic and relatively improved security conditions. In the northern and northeastern provinces representing some of the most important cereal producing areas, and where security conditions were stable, production was higher than anticipated earlier and normal. However, dry spells in April and May reduced bean production by approximately 30 percent from normal levels in Gitega, Rutana and Makamba provinces. Furthermore, Bubanza, Cibitok� and Karuzi provinces were seriously affected by the civil strife during the season which prevented crop husbandry. Production is estimated to be reduced in these provinces by as much as 50 percent. Based on the results of surveys of the second crop season undertaken earlier and on information provided by provincial directorates, the Mission estimated the 1996 second season foodcrop production at about 1.63 million tons, a drop of some 8 percent from the 1988-93 pre-crisis average and 2 percent lower than in the previous year.
The Mission provisionally forecast foodcrop production for the 1996 third season at 615 000 tons, 3 percent below the previous year�s level, mainly reflecting reductions in provinces affected by civil strife.
The total food production in 1996 is forecast at 3.5 million tons, some 3 percent down from the 1995 output and 4 percent below the 1988-93 pre-crisis level. This comprises 273 000 tons of cereals, 324 000 tons of pulses, 1.36 million tons of roots and tubers and 1.54 million tons of bananas and plantains. Considering normal annual consumption requirements, there was a deficit of 53 000 tons of cereals and 69 000 tons of pulses to be covered by imports. Commercial imports and food aid distributions until July 1996 were estimated at 31 000 tons of cereals and 7 000 tons of pulses, leaving a gap of 22 000 tons of cereals and 62 000 tons of pulses, which remained uncovered due to the current economic sanctions.
A recent FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that although there are signs that the economy is now recovering after several decades of armed conflict and consequent neglect, agriculture and the capacity of the country to meet food requirements through its own resources, remain weak and highly unstable. Agriculture is still based on subsistence farming, where input use and the adoption of yield enhancing technologies remain extremely low, even by standards in other sub Saharan countries. On most farms, output barely meets subsistence requirements in good years, whilst in bad years, pest infestation and drought significantly erode the capacity of the household to react to food shortages.
In the 1996 crop year, although rainfall at the beginning of the season in April was favourable, encouraging an expansion in area cultivated, a subsequent drought in July/August, in many areas, severely affected crops at a critical stage in growth. Production of cereals and pulses this year is, therefore, estimated at approximately 132 000 tons, some 11 percent lower than 1995 and 29 percent lower than the average for the preceding four years. Taking into account opening stocks of 60 000 tons would give an overall availability of 192 000 tons in 1997. Against this the country requires some 395 000 tons for food alone and 481 000 tons for total utilization, leaving an overall import requirement of over 289 000 tons. Assuming that 120 000 tons would come in the form of commercial imports (including cross border transactions) and a further 25 000 tons as pledged food assistance, the remaining deficit for 1997, to be covered by food assistance, amounts to 144 000 tons.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission forecast that the 1996/97 production of cereals and pulses will be some 12 million tons, comprising 11.7 million tons of Meher crops and 0.3 million tons of Belg crops. This represents: a) an increase of some 20 percent over the MoA�s final estimate of last year�s Meher harvest and b) an average Belg crop in 1997 harvested before July/August.
Early, plentiful and well distributed rains throughout the year not only encouraged planting and supported crop development during the season in most zones but also provided optimal conditions for cultivation by a draught animal force in excellent condition, in all but tse-tse prone areas, due to an absence of serious disease challenges and good forage supply.
Minimal infestations of migratory pests on growing crops, notably army-worm and Quelea-quelea, were effectively controlled. Non-migratory pests, particularly stalk borer and shoot fly, though ubiquitous, did not reach the level of economic significance necessary for MoA intervention in any zone.
Expansion of the National Extension Programme (NEP) for the main cereal crops in all main production regions increased the area under such management from 20 000 hectares in 1995 to 200 000 hectares in 1996. Fertilizer use rose by almost 5 percent in parallel with the expanded programme.
On the negative side, increased weed competition increased demands on labour and/or herbicides and reduced yields in the southern forest areas. Excess rain caused waterlogging in highland heavy clay areas, which delayed planting and stunted crop growth. Floods destroyed crops in a number of areas and significantly reduced production in Gambella. Storage losses are expected to be higher than last year as on-farm storage capacity is limited and crop protection chemicals are not available.
Root, tuber and oilseed crops also benefited from the rains in their respective areas, but the coffee crop is reported to be lower than last year and suffering from coffee berry disease at a time when coffee prices are in decline.
Cereal prices, which have been declining steadily in most markets throughout the year, fell abruptly with the onset of the harvest signalling the general anticipation of a bumper crop. Given that maize prices in particular are now near or below production costs in the main production areas, efforts need to be made to improve marketing possibilities to avoid surpluses becoming a disincentive to producers.
The comfortable situation described above masks the existence of food deficient communities which extend throughout the country due to displacement, structural inadequacies and lack of access/entitlement to food supplies. Although overall food aid requirements are estimated at 186 000 tons, 64 percent of last year�s requirements, 1.9 million people will still require food assistance. Further, as there is a need to maintain food security against climatic vagaries that could reverse this year�s situation of surplus, 307 000 tons are required to sustain the food security reserve.
Given the above considerations, all food aid should be met by local purchases and no food aid should be imported. In addition, donors should seriously consider financial support for the purchase and export of Ethiopian grains to neighbouring countries such as Kenya, Eritrea and Somalia, where similar FAO/WFP Missions have reported large deficits.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in late October/early November estimated the national long-rains maize crop for 1996 at 1.82 million tons. The short-rains maize crop is forecast at 403 000 tons, bringing total estimated maize production for 1996/97 season to 2.22 million tons compared to 2.7 million tons in the 1995/96 season, a decrease of 18 percent. This decline reflects both lower planting and yields. As a result of low farm gate prices in 1995, some farmers in main producing areas reduced long-rains maize planting in favour of increased wheat cultivation. Reduced use of fertilizer and high-quality seed, a decision spurred by high input prices, negatively affected yields. By contrast, a considerable increase in short-rains maize plantings is expected to compensate partially for this shortfall. Production of long- rains sorghum and millet is estimated at 109 000 tons with a further 90 000 tons of sorghum and millet forecast from the short-rains crop, most of which is now being planted. This could represent an increase in production of 49 percent over the previous year. The net result for total coarse grains production is an expected decline of 15 percent in the current crop year.
Wheat production is expected to increase by 12 percent over that of 1995/96 to 350 000 tons. Paddy production is expected to be similar to that of a year ago, at 47 000 tons. Total pulse crop production is estimated at 377 500 tons, some 25 percent below that of 1995; almost one half of this is forecast to be produced in the short-rains season, mainly in Eastern Province, where the long-rains season failed this year.
In the Eastern, Coastal, North East and Lower parts of the Central provinces, rains failed for the second year and the food situation is tight. The most affected areas are the districts of Mwingi, Kitui, Kieni, Muranga, Machakos, Kwale and the pastoralist zones of the North Eastern province, where action needs to be taken to avert a serious food crisis.
Forecasts for the short-rains crop assume adequate rainfall during the period from November 1996 to January 1997.
However, the outlook for the short rains crop is poor. A delayed start of the rainy season was followed by adequate rains in late November, which improved prospects, but below average precipitation in several areas of the Central and Eastern provinces in December stressed developing crops. Given that the short rains normally stop in mid-December the probability of more needed precipitation in January are scarce. As a result, the 1996/97 production are likely to be lower than forecast by the FAO/WFP Mission and the shortfall in maize and pulse considerable higher. Nevertheless, the overall deficit could be met through commercial imports. This will require lifting the two-year old ban on maize imports imposed in 1995 and some forward planning by the Government now, by giving traders the right economic signals, to ensure that import requirements will be met when they are expected to take effect in April 1997, lasting until September.
As a result of the failure of the long-rains in some provinces, it is estimated that 1.6 million individuals immediately require relief assistance in the drought stressed areas until the next harvest in February 1997. A large part of the relief food requirements and of the overall shortfall will be covered by the Government as well as a combination of measures indicated above for stimulating commercial imports. However, the anticipated short rains crop failure in many areas, will have serious consequences for the currently drought-affected population which is largely deprived of whatever coping mechanisms, and the requirements for relief assistance will increased.
Recent developments have led to a sudden influx of hundreds of thousands of Rwandan refugees from neighbouring countries. These returnees will face difficult living conditions in the months ahead, with bleak prospects for adequate food supplies and other basic necessities. The additional upsurge in food needs will undoubtedly strain the already fragile and unstable food supply situation in the country, which has persisted since the outbreak of civil strife in April 1994. In view of the need for additional food, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Rwanda in December, to assess prospects for the 1997 season A food crops, to evaluate the food and nutritional status of the population and to estimate cereal import requirements, including food aid, for the first half of next year.
The Mission assessed that there had been a significant increase in area planted under season A crops this year compared to last. In several prefectures, local authorities had begun allocating land belonging to absentee farmers to returnees from the 1959 exodus, or had rented land to relatives and neighbours of owners. In general, therefore, it is estimated that less than 10 percent of total arable land was left uncultivated this season.
Rains during season A (which started in September), have been irregular with notable deficiencies in central and southern prefectures and normal to excessive precipitation in the rest of the country. Dry conditions substantially lowered crop production in Gikongoro, Gitarama and parts of Butare and Kigali rural prefectures, whilst abundant rainfall elsewhere reduced prospective yields of beans, though it favoured cereals, roots and tubers. The output of bananas and plantains was also affected by localized losses due to heavy winds in important growing areas. Overall, production of season A cereals, root and tubers is estimated to be 23 percent above last year, while that of bananas and plantains is expected to increase slightly. However, the output of beans dropped 12 percent below last year. Despite an overall improvement, food production from the 1997 season A remains below the pre-civil strife average, due to lower cropped areas, low yields of pulses this season and crop losses in the prefectures affected by dry weather.
The reduction in bean production, the main first season crop, coupled with a sharp increase in demand from returning refugees in November/December has seriously aggravated the food situation in the country. Bean prices have risen sharply and are considerably higher than prevailing prices last year. The nutritional situation gives cause for concern in some areas of the country; it is likely to be aggravated with anticipated reduced per caput food supplies in 1997. Food shortages in Gikongoro and Butare prefectures may also lead to an increased incidence of malnutrition in these areas.
Taking into account an estimate of 560 000 returnees from Zaire in November 1996, the expected return of 400 000 people from Tanzania by the end of the year and of some 100 000 additional returnees in 1997, the Mission projected a population of 7.685 million people for the first half of 1997. It is estimated that this number of people would require a minimum of 145 000 tons of cereals, 152 000 tons of pulses, 781 000 tons of roots and tubers and 1 600 000 tons of bananas/plantains. Taking into consideration the expected production and stocks, this leaves a deficit for the first six months of 1997 of 30 000 tons of cereals, 45 000 tons of pulses, 124 000 tons of roots and tubers and 522 000 tons of bananas/plantains. In cereal equivalent terms, the total deficit is estimated at 141 000 tons. As only a part of this requirement can be met through commercial imports the country will need substantial food assistance in 1997. Food aid requirements for the first half of the year are estimated at 81 000 tons of cereals and 33 000 of pulses, to cover needs of 2.571 million people, or one-third of the projected population. The number of beneficiaries includes recent returnees who were not engaged in farming during the 1997 A season, previous returnees who will have to leave farm areas they are presently occupying, and vulnerable groups including widows, elderly people living alone and orphans.
There is also an urgent need to provide recent returnees with sweet potato cuttings, vegetable seeds and agricultural tools, to enable them to engage in agriculture and harvest crops by March/April next year, before the full harvest of the next season in June. In preparation for the 1997 B season, there is need for sorghum and bean seeds, fertilizers and pesticides.
Harvesting of the 1996/97 secondary �Der� cereal crop, normally accounting for some 25 percent of the annual cereal production, has started. Prospects are unfavourable reflecting delayed and poorly distributed rains during the season, coupled with a decline in plantings due to the late precipitation and prevailing insecurity in the several areas. Preliminary estimates of the area planted indicate a decrease of one-third from the previous �Der� season for the sorghum crop, to 120 000 hectares, not compensated by an increase of 17 percent in the area under maize, mainly in irrigated areas, to 59 000 hectares. As the rainy season normally ending by mid-December, the probabilities of additional rains are scarce and the total cereal production for the 1996/97 �Der� season is forecast at 61 000 tons, a decline of 45 percent from the normal 1995/96 level. Sorghum production is put at 72 000 tons, while that of maize at 37 000 tons.
With the anticipated reduced 1996/97 �Der�, food shortages are expected in parts, particularly in the Gedo, Lower Juba and Hiraam regions, where the main �Gu� crop was poor.
The 1996 main �Gu� harvest was estimated by a FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 243 000 tons of cereals, an increase of 47 percent from the previous year but still over one-third less than the pre-civil war average. This reflects a significant increase in production in the important growing Bay region and the Northwest which, together, account for half of the country�s production. However, production declined sharply elsewhere due to drought, insect damage and/or flooding.
If forecast of the secondary �Der� season materialized, the cereal import requirement in the 1996/97 marketing year is likely to increase by some 44 000 tons from the 203 000 tons forecast by the FAO/WFP Mission. From this forecast, commercial imports were expected to rise during the year to an annual net import of 160 000 tons of cereals (mostly rice and wheat). The remaining gap of 43 000 tons needed to be covered by food aid, including 19 000 tons of emergency food aid for the worst affected areas. The final food aid requirements will need to be revised in the light of the final production estimates of the �Der� crop and farmers� coping mechanisms in the areas where the harvest is reduced.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission forecast that total cereal production would reach 5.33 million tons in 1996/97 comprising 4.10 million tons of sorghum, 0.49 million tons of millet, 0.64 million tons of wheat (to be harvested in April 1997), and a relatively small quantity of maize (0.09 million tons) mainly produced in the south. These forecasts include a fuller estimate of production in southern Sudan and imply an underestimation in earlier years of about 250 000 tons in this region. Discounting this one-off statistical increase, the 1996/97 harvest is 50 percent higher than the final MANRAW estimates of last year�s disappointing production. Sorghum is 61 percent higher, millet 23 percent and wheat is expected to be up 17 percent. Total cereal production is slightly higher than even the 1994/95 excellent crop; sorghum and wheat are significantly higher but millet is only half of the production in that exceptional year.
Major increases in the planted area of sorghum, stimulated by high prices at planting time, allied to better than average supplies of fuel and fertilizer and in the greater use of high potential cultivars combined to provide the conditions for the highest sorghum crop in recent years. Rainfall was good early in the season, but a dry spell, starting in June in the Gedaref area and affecting many other productive areas in July, had the effect of reducing yield potential at a critical time in the growth cycle. Some crops were not planted until the dry period ended and this resulted in attacks on crops by sorghum midge. In some areas, such as parts of Renk, the rains ended prematurely in early October, leaving late planted crops suffering moisture stress during the grain-fill stage, resulting in smaller grains and lower yields. Pest and disease attacks on sorghum were, however, lower than average throughout the country. Lack of credit for weeding resulted in some crops suffering from high levels of weed competition. Striga remains a major problem in sorghum in most areas of the country, though efforts are being made to counter this problem weed by improving crop rotations. Machinery shortages limited planted areas in some of the mechanized sector and may cause some losses of crop on larger farms due to shedding of grain caused by late harvesting.
Millet crops have fared much less well than sorghum since these are mainly grown in the northern half of Darfur and Kordofan, where rainfall was poor and uneven in mid-season. All areas in the West, north of 13� latitude experienced long dry periods in August-September which badly affected millet crops, traditionally planted in the sandy �goz� soils. In addition, grasshopper damage to early crops in North and West Darfur necessitated replantings which suffered badly from poorly distributed rain later in the season. Although the total area planted to millet was good, more than half the crop is estimated to be unproductive. The poor crops remaining have, in many areas, been subject to late attacks of millet headworm, further reducing yields. Although millet production is better than last year�s very poor production in nearly all areas, stocks are very much lower than a year ago (when there was a large carryover from 1994/95) and millet supplies will be inadequate in North Darfur, North Kordofan, the north-west of West Kordofan, the north of South Darfur and in the Geneina province of West Darfur.
The overall food outlook for 1996/97 is therefore favourable, but at the levels of certain provinces and states the food supply situation is likely to be precarious. Despite the overall sorghum surplus, the six states in Darfur and Kordofan, Red Sea State and the South as a whole, will all be in deficit - by a total amount of around 600 000 tons. Some of these deficit amounts will be corrected through normal internal trade but, especially in the cases of North Kordofan and North Darfur, some areas and sectors of the population will have difficulty in meeting their food needs. In these vulnerable areas (particularly north of 13�) production is very low, stocks are negligible and the income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. Although sorghum will move westwards from the surplus areas, prices will stay relatively high due to high transport costs. Prices therefore (even of sorghum) may well be out of reach of large numbers of rural people, especially from around March 1997. A contingency plan is suggested which could support people suffering severe food deficits, either by locally purchases grain or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas.
In addition, a total of 52 176 tons of emergency food aid (including 39 000 tons of cereals) will be required for 2.6 million displaced and war-affected people in 1997 under Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS).
Harvesting of the 1997 short rains �Vuli� season in under way in the bi-modal rainfall areas of the northern coastal belt and north-eastern, where this crop account for some 40 percent of the annual food supplies. Prospects are unfavourable reflecting well below average cumulative precipitation during the growing. A poor outturn of the vuli season, will aggravate the difficult situation in the food deficit pockets affected by reduced harvest in the previous season. The situation is anticipated particularly serious in highland northern-eastern parts
In unimodal rainfall areas of the south, planting of the 1997 main �masika� season, to be harvested from March, has been completed. Prospects are uncertain. Insufficient rains in November and December, particularly in western regions, are likely to have resulted in planting reductions and affected crop establishment. More rains are needed soon.
The food supply situation is overall satisfactory. As a result of a good 1996 production, the country remained self- sufficient in the main foodcrops, except wheat for which limited imports are required for consumption in urban areas. However, it is estimated that some 280 000 persons different regions gathered a poor harvest and are in need of food assistance until the next main harvest from June.
The presence of large numbers of refugees in Kagera and Kigoma regions is also adversely affecting the food supply situation in these regions where food prices have risen substantially.
Total registered refugees currently remaining in Tanzania are 248 000 (mostly Burundian) but exact numbers are uncertain. By late December, the influx of Zairean and Burundian refugees into Kigoma region continues at the rate of 1 000 per day.
Harvesting of the 1996 second season cereal crops is well underway. The output is anticipated to be below normal reflecting insufficient and poorly distributed rains during the season in eastern parts of the country. The first �long rains� season cereal crop, harvested earlier in the year, was lower than anticipated and, as a result, the country�s maize export surplus will be limited in 1996/97.
Prices of food staples, beans and cassava, which had increased to record high during November, declined in December with the beginning of the harvest, but remain above their level of the previous year.
In the northern districts of Gulu, Moyo and Kitgum, representing over one-third of the country�s territory) persistent civil strife resulted in reduced plantings of the 1996 second season. Intensified fighting in December, mainly around Gulu town, have resulted in massive displacement of local population and Sudanese refugees. These population are in precarious food and health situation, as they are unable to gather their crops, normally harvested from December, due to the insecurity. Market prices in the region have more than doubled their level of December 1996, while malnutrition is reported to be widespread in the area.