Planting of winter crops, to be harvested from May 1997, has been delayed somewhat due to below-normal rainfall in October- November, which left topsoils with insufficient moisture levels. Since planting normally usually starts in mid- November and continues into early January, weather conditions in December will be crucial.
Few Desert Locusts may be scattered in some areas west and south of the Hoggar Mountains as well as further north south of the Atlas Mountains. Egg laying may occur in favourable areas and, if so, hoppers could appear.
1996 wheat production is estimated at 2.5 million tons, 67 percent higher than last year’s harvest of 1.5 million tons. Production of barley almost tripled to 1.7 million tons, while the output of oats increased by 60 000 tons to 110 000 tons.
Imports of wheat, excluding semolina, in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to increase by 200 000 tons to 3.2 million tons. Imports of coarse grains, mainly maize, are forecast at 1 million tons, unchanged from 1995/96.
Rains were normal in November, except in the Governorates of Sogag and Assouan, where torrential rains caused floods and seriously affected some hundred hectares of land. Planting of wheat and barley, to be harvested from mid-April 1997, is underway. The area planted to wheat in 1996/97 is expected to be 8 percent higher than the previous year, mainly due to an increase of government procurement prices. Production of wheat in 1996 is estimated at 5.74 million tons, slightly higher than last year. Maize and sorghum production is estimated at 6 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively. Reflecting a marked decline in the area sown, production of barley is estimated at about 4 times less than the 1995 record of 368 000 tons. Output of paddy, now being harvested, is estimated at an above-average 4.9 million tons.
Few scattered adult Desert Locusts are expected to be present in some cropping areas and wadis in the extreme south to the east of Lake Nassar and on the Red Sea coastal plains.
Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast at 6 million tons, similar to last year, whilst coarse grains imports, mainly maize, are expected to increase by some 100 000 tons to 2.5 million tons.
Following below-normal rainfall and dry weather at the beginning of the season, abundant rains covered winter grain areas in the second dekad of November, which provided substantial topsoil moisture for winter grain planting. Production of wheat in 1996, estimated at 5.9 million tons, was more than five times higher than last year’s drought- affected crop of only 1.1 million tons. The output of barley increased by 3.2 million tons to 3.8 million tons and that of maize to 235 000 tons, about five times higher than last year’s poor harvest. As rice production in 1996 is expected to be above 45 000 tons, the government imposed a licence requirement on rice imports to protect local producers and encourage the sale of local rice.
Swarms of Desert Locusts are threatening Morocco’s most fertile crop areas. This has prompted the authorities to carry out extensive ground and aerial spraying to contain them. The swarms arrived in the Souss Valley near Agadir in early December from further south. During the last half of the month, nearly 32 000 hectares were sprayed. Survey and control teams currently operating in affected areas have now been reinforced.
Wheat imports in 1996/97 (July/June) are forecast to decline by 2.1 million tons to 0.9 million tons, while imports of coarse grains are expected to decrease by some 0.5 million tons, to 350 000 tons.
Prospects for early planted winter grain crops are unfavourable due to significantly below-average rainfall between September and November. Topsoil remained very dry over all winter grain areas, including the north, the major producing area of cereals. Since the bulk of the wheat and barley crops is normally sown between mid-November and mid- December, more precipitation is needed soon to allow widespread planting of the 1997 crops. Production of wheat in 1996/97 is forecast at 1.2 million tons, some 40 percent lower than the record level of 2 million tons in 1995/96. Barley output in 1996/97 is estimated at 400 000 tons, about 52 percent lower than the last season’s record of 0.84 million tons. Record production in 1995/96 was the result of favourable weather, larger area planted and increased use of fertilizers. Pasture conditions for 1996/97 are reported to be satisfactory; planting of 1996/97 folder started in October and should be completed in November.
Few adult Desert Locusts are expected to be observed in the south where they may mature and lay in areas of favourable conditions.
Imports of soft wheat in 1996/97 (July/June) is estimated at 0.5 million tons, 50 percent of last year’s. Imports of maize are forecast at 150 000 tons, 25 percent lower than the previous year.