Normal rains since mid-October have largely benefited the development of the 1996/97 wheat crop, currently being harvested, which was affected by dry weather at planting. With the exception of the north-east of the Buenos Aires Province and some parts in the north of La Pampa Province, growing conditions in the rest of the main producing areas are reported to be satisfactory. By late December, about 72 percent of the area planted had been harvested. Latest official forecasts point to a record crop of 15.2 million tons, which compares to last year’s low 9.2 million tons, despite storm damage in mid-December. This is mainly due to the combination of enlarged plantings from 4.8 to 6.5 million hectares and to improved yields, principally caused by a significant increase in the use of fertilizers (about 64 percent of the area planted). The anticipated increase is also attributed to the employment of more modern farm machinery and equipment. Producers have been attracted by high international prices and expanding exports.
Planting of the 1996/97 maize crop continues under favourable conditions. By late December, about 92 percent of intended plantings had been sown. Plantings are expected to increase significantly from last year, and early official forecasts indicate that production could reach a record 13 million tons, provided good weather persists. Planting of the 1996/97 sorghum crop has recently started and the intended area planted should be close to the below-average level of the 1995/96 crop, mostly reflecting limited export capacity.
Normal rains have benefited planting of the 1996/97 main season (summer) cereal and potato crops currently underway. Plantings for all crops should increase from last year’s normal to above-normal levels, particularly in the main producing eastern region of the Department of Santa Cruz, as producers are attracted by favourable prices and anticipated larger markets. An important recovery in wheat production is particularly expected, provided good weather persists, as the crops were affected last year by a dry spell.
Wheat imports in the 1996/97 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 300 000 tons, similar to last year’s, reflecting the growing demand for wheat as a major staple in the country’s diet.
Harvesting of the 1996 wheat crop has been virtually completed. The outlook is good and output is provisionally estimated at 3.2 million tons, slightly more than double the 1995 outturn. This reflects increased plantings from a low 1 million hectares to an above-average 1.7 million hectares, mostly in response to high international prices at planting, and a recently established Government programme which guarantees minimum prices to producers. Enlarged plantings are reported particularly in the main growing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where the area planted has almost doubled, as well as in the rest of the producing states.
Planting of the 1996/97 maize crop has been completed and harvesting is due to start from late January. Prospects are good and a large recovery from last year’s drought affected crop is anticipated. Early forecasts indicate that production could be between 33.5 and 34 million tons, compared to last year’s 31.6 million tons. This reflects enlarged plantings, particularly in the main producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, in response to expanding exports. Although production is enough to meet domestic consumption requirements, some imports mostly in the north-east would still be necessary. This is because of cheaper cost relative to transporting maize from the large producing areas in the south.
Planting of the 1996/97 paddy crop is about to be completed. Early production forecasts point to a lower outturn from last year, reflecting anticipated decreased plantings and yields caused by credit restrictions to the sector.
Dry weather, particularly in the northern parts of the country and central valleys, continue to affect the development of the 1996/97 wheat crop and planting of the maize crop, currently underway. Water availability for irrigation and power generation is being restricted in some of the affected areas. It is also reported that pastures have been affected and that the fruit harvest could be lower than earlier expected. Elsewhere, normal to above-normal plantings for cereals, as well as other food and cash crops, particularly export oriented fruits and vegetables, are intended in response to expanding markets.
Wheat and maize imports in the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October) are likely to decrease from the previous year mainly as a result of large carry-over stocks.
Torrential rains in mid October, particularly in the north central areas of the country, delayed planting of the 1996/97 second season cereal crops. Maize output is expected to be below-normal for the second consecutive year, despite government measures to ensure the purchase of the full crop at specified prices. This is largely the result of competing imports and the alternative use of land for more profitable purposes, such as livestock production and urban development. It is also the consequence of high production costs, credit restrictions to the agricultural sector and insecurity in the rural areas. Sorghum is also expected to be below-average for the second consecutive year. By contrast, the output of paddy should remain slightly above-average, but not enough to meet domestic demand.
Wheat imports in the 1997 marketing year (January/December) are forecast to be close to the relatively high level of 1 million tons imported in 1996. Maize imports, mostly yellow, should decline from 1.1 million tons to 600 000 tons because of large carryover stocks in the country. Imports of rice should be about 100 000 tons, reflecting the continuing growing demand.
Normal weather conditions over all the country have benefited planting of the 1996/97 main season white maize crop, as well as fieldwork for planting of the 1996/97 second season wheat and paddy crops. In the coastal areas, early planting of the paddy and yellow maize crops is reported. In the highlands, where most of the wheat is grown, early sowing of wheat and the bulk of the harvesting operations of the second season yellow maize crop are underway. The potato crop, also grown in the highlands, is reported to have been affected by frost in November. In the eastern parts of the country, planting of the paddy crop is about to start while yellow maize is grown throughout the year.
Wheat imports in 1997 (January/December) are expected to be a high 485 000 tons compared to 385 000 tons in 1996. Maize imports, mostly yellow, should be about 100 000 tons, even if domestic production should cover most of internal demand. This reflects exports of domestic production to neighbouring countries where prices are more attractive.
Normal rains in the first half of November across the northern coastal areas benefited the development of the second season paddy crop for harvesting in early January. By contrast, below normal rains in the valleys of the central highlands have delayed planting of the white maize and potato crops. Rains are badly needed as the bulk of the planting operations should have taken place in November. In the southern region of Arequipa, precipitation and water reserves are reported at adequate levels. Production of wheat in 1996 is provisionally estimated at a record 150 000 tons. A larger than average output of maize, mainly due to the demand for yellow maize from the poultry feeding industry, as well as of barley, are provisionally estimated. By contrast, production of paddy is slightly below average, reflecting low prices caused by excessive supplies.
Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) are forecast at 1.2 million tons, compared to this year’s 1.3 million tons. Maize imports should be close to the 900 000 tons imported in 1996.
Harvesting of the 1996/97 wheat crop is underway. Wheat output is provisionally forecast to increase significantly from last year to about 425 000 tons. This is lower than earlier expected as a consequence of a dry spell at planting and during the growing season, but nevertheless above average. The increase is principally due to enlarged plantings caused by attractive prices and the possibility of expanding exports. An above-average output of barley is also expected. The impact of the dry spell could also affect the 1996/97 paddy crop currently being planted, as water reserves are reported low in some of the irrigated main growing areas. Intended plantings and yields should be similar to last year’s satisfactory levels.
Harvesting of the 1996 maize crop is about to be completed. The outlook is favourable and output is provisionally estimated at 1 million tons, about 100 000 tons lower than last year’s, but still above average. The decrease is mainly due to lower yields than the 1995 crop’s caused by high production costs and credit restrictions to the sector. Prospects are good for the 1996 paddy crop and output is expected to increase for the second consecutive year. Harvesting is about to be completed and production is provisionally estimated at an above-average 700 000 tons. The satisfactory levels reached in maize and paddy production are mostly due to attractive prices and continuing expanding exports to neighbouring countries. Production of minor foodcrops, such as roots, vegetables and fruits is also satisfactory.