Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Last year, an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated 1996 cereal production at 840 000 tons, which is slightly below 1995 and below average. Production decreased notably in the Sahelian zone. Prospects for off-season crops (mainly berbere - recessional sorghum - in the south-east and in the south-west, along the Logone, Chari and Mayo Kebbi rivers) are also poor due to lower planted areas and limited yields. As the water level has increased in Lake Chad in recent years, some planted areas with maize and wheat in polders have also been lost by farmers.
Following this reduced crop, the food supply situation is going to be tight in 1997, notably in the Sahelian zone where cereal prices are much higher than in previous years. In addition, the national security stock is almost exhausted, which is particularly worrisome. Its recommended level is 22 000 tons, as estimated by an FAO mission in 1995. In early November, the National Early Warning System (SAP) estimated the need for the vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at 17 500 tons of cereals to be distributed during 6 months from March. It has recently revised this figure to 19 500 tons. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for a second year and pest attacks. The Government has sent sorghum to be sold at subsidized price in that Prefecture. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Batha prefecture following reduced crops and damage by grasshoppers and grain-eating birds. In early December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals. Half of this amount is necessary to cover the needs for distributions or sales at subsidized prices in 1997 and the rest to reconstitute the national security stock before next marketing year. A donors meeting held by the FAO representative met in February to review the current food supply situation. Several donors confirmed or announced food aid contributions, either with imported cereals or from local purchases, notably in Salamat region. However, current pledges amount to about 22 000 tons and therefore do not cover the deficit. Additional contributions are required.