Security conditions are reported to have improved in many parts of the country during February, including the northern Bubanza and Cibitoke areas, although civil unrest continue.
Planting of the 1997 B second season foodcrops, to be harvested in June-July, is underway. Early prospects are better than in the previous season reflecting improvements in security and in agricultural input availability following an exemption to the embargo by neighbouring countries granted by the Regional Sanctions Co-ordination Committee (RSCC). FAO is currently distributing 200 tons of bean seed, hoes and vegetable seed to the most vulnerable population. Out of 4 000 tons of fertilizers to cover the needs for 1997 some 2 200 tons have entered the country and are currently being distributed. However, the remaining 1 800 tons, which are urgently needed for planting, are being retained at the borders due to the refusal of neighbouring Governments to facilitate the import process. Providing weather conditions remain satisfactory during the growing season and assuming that security will not deteriorate, the output is forecast to recover from the reduced levels of the past three seasons.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in January/February found that the 1997 first season crop (harvested in January) was affected by poor security, large movements of the population, an economic embargo and adverse weather in some parts. Plantings were limited by the movements of people, as well as by a reduced availability of seeds, mainly beans, potatoes and vegetables. Yields of cereals and pulses were affected by lack of quality seeds, an almost total absence of fertilizers, a false start to the rainy season and a prolonged dry spell that affected the main producing areas between September and November 1996.
The aggregate food production of the 1997 first season crop was estimated at 1.2 million tons, 7 percent lower than in 1996 and 18 percent below the pre-crisis average for 1988- 1993. Pulses and to a lesser extent cereals were the crops most affected. Compared to 1996 pulses declined 22 percent to 104 000 tons and cereals 10 percent to 148 000 tons. The outputs of root and tubers and banana and plantains declined by 5 percent and 4 percent respectively.
The food supply situation remains very tight for most products, particularly beans. As a result of a succession of reduced harvests and the economic embargo since late July 1996, the average price of food has increased by more than 40- 50 percent compared to the beginning of 1996. The price of beans has more than doubled. The situation is particularly serious for some 500 000 displaced and dispersed people and for some 200 000 regrouped population. Malnutrition among children in resettlement camps set up by the Government to re- locate the population in areas of conflict, as well as among the displaced population has been reported. The Government has requested international humanitarian assistance for the regrouped population.
Seasonal dry conditions prevail. Planting of the 1997 cereal crops is not scheduled until June. The 1996 cereal and pulses output was poor due to severe dry weather in July/August when crops were at a critical stage in growth. An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country in December estimated 1996 grain production at 132 000 tons, some 11 percent below the previous year and 29 percent lower than the average. Import requirements for 1997 were estimated at 289 000 tons. Commercial imports are anticipated at 120 000 tons, leaving a deficit of 169 000 tons to be covered by food aid. Against this requirement, pledges until the end of February amounted to 17 000 tons.
Planting of the 1997 secondary "Belg" crop is underway. The Belg crop accounts for only around 7 percent of total cereal production but in several areas provide most of the annual food supplies. Belg rains are also important for planting of the long-season crops (maize and sorghum) of the main "Meher" season. An early start of the belg rains in late January followed by adequate precipitation in growing areas during February favoured planting operations and development of early planted crops. Early prospects for harvest from June are favourable.
In pastorals areas of the south bordering Somalia and Kenya, which have a short rains season from October to December, (Borena Zone of Oromiya Region and Somali Region) erratic and well below average rains during the season in several parts resulted in a rapid deterioration of pasture conditions, shortage of water supplies and poor livestock conditions. The food supply situation in these areas is reported to be very difficult. Food aid assistance, which is currently being distributed to the affected population, is estimated at 10 000 tons of grain, but water supply remains a critical problem. It is recommended that these pledges be covered by local purchases. The worst affected areas are Degehabur and Libean Zones of Somali region and Dire and Yabello waredas in the Borena zone. The price of grains and water have increased sharply in the affected areas while prices of livestock have fallen significantly. Large migrating movements are reported. The situation is expected to improve towards the end of this month when rains of the main season normally start.
The main 1996 "Meher" cereal crops, harvested until January, was a record. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December estimated the output of cereals and pulses at 11.7 million tons, an increase of 20 percent over the previous year. The bumper crop reflected plentiful and well distributed rains throughout the season, which resulted in higher planting and yields, minimal levels of pest infestations and an increased availability and use of fertilizers. Exportable surplus of some 400 000-600 000 tons are estimated in 1997.
However, despite a satisfactory food supply situation overall, some 1.9 million people still require food assistance due to structural food insecurity and poverty, as well as localized weather adversities during the main meher season. The food aid requirements are expected to be covered through local purchases.
The price of grains, which had steadily declined since November continued to fall in January. Increased exports of maize, mainly to Kenya, are expected to result in an increase in prices in the coming months.
Harvesting of the 1997 secondary "short rains" crops in the bimodal rainfall areas has been completed. The short rains crop represents only one-quarter of the annual cereal and pulses production, but it is the main crop in the Eastern and North-Eastern Provinces. The short rains are also important for replenishment of water and pastures in the mainly pastoral North Eastern Province. Following the failure of this year's short rains, the harvest is estimated to be sharply reduced, while poor pasture conditions and water shortages resulted in significant losses of livestock. The 1996/97 short rains season follows two consecutive failures of the previous rainy seasons. The food supply situation is extremely tight in northern and eastern parts of the country, while water scarcity has also become a serious problem. Prices of livestock have fallen sharply reflecting distress selling, at the time that prices of grains are at high levels.
The Government has declared a national disaster and is distributing relief food in 39 districts. However, with the Strategic Grain Reserve at a minimum level, it has requested international food and non food assistance. The affected population has been estimated by a UN Assessment Mission at 1.4 million people. In agricultural areas, there is also need for timely provision of seed and tools for planting in the next "long rains� season which is about to start. Most affected parts are the pastoral districts of Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit where 500 000 people, or some 90 percent of the population, are at risk of food insecurity, as well as the marginal agricultural districts of Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi in Eastern Province and the Kajiado and Taita Taveta districts in the Rift Valley and Coast Province respectively . Malnutrition is reported to be increasing in the affected districts.
Planting of the 1997 main "long rains" crop, which normally starts in mid-March, is about to start. The area planted to the main maize crop is forecast to increase reflecting a sharp increase in prices from the low level of the previous year.
The output of the 1996 "long rains" was reduced reflecting reduced plantings and yields as a result of low farm gate prices, as well as excessive rains in parts and dry weather in eastern areas. Following the failure of the secondary short rains crop, the estimate of the 1997 aggregate production of cereals made by the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment in October/November has been revised down to 2.8 million tons, including a maize output of 2.2 million tons, a decline of 18 percent from the previous year.
For the 1996/97 marketing year, the revised cereal import requirement is provisionally projected at 1.2 million tons. This is almost twice the average for the past five years. With commercial imports expected to reach 1 million tons, there is a deficit of 200 000 tons that needs to be covered by food aid to the drought-affected population. The Government has lifted a ban on maize imports as well as reduced duties in order to encourage commercial imports. Against the food aid requirement, pledges until mid-March amount to about 53 000 tons.
The reported outbreak of rinderpest will further aggravate the already serious food situation, particularly in pastoral areas.
Planting of the 1997 second �B� season is underway. Seeds and other agricultural inputs are being distributed by FAO and other international agencies. A further increase in the area planted is expected this season following the massive return of refugees last November.
Food production of the 1997 A season was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission in December to be higher than in the previous year, although still below the pre-civil strife average. The output of cereals and root and tubers increased by 23 percent reflecting larger plantings and abundant rains but that of pulses, the main crop of the season, declined 12 percent due to excessive rains. Production of bananas and plantains increased slightly, with improved crop husbandry partially compromised by crop damage by heavy winds in important growing areas. Despite the overall improvement, however, production was sharply reduced in the Gikongoro, Gitarama and parts of Butare and Kigali rural prefectures which were affected by severe dry weather during the season.
The reduction in bean output, coupled with a sharp increase in demand from an estimated 1.3 million returning refugees, has aggravated the already precarious food supply situation in the country. Bean prices have risen sharply over last year.
Import requirements for the first half of 1997 are estimated at 30 000 tons of cereals, 45 000 tons of pulses, 124 000 tons of roots and tubers and 522 000 tons of bananas and plantains. In grain equivalent terms, the total deficit is estimated at 141 000 tons. After accounting for commercial imports, food aid requirements are estimated at 81 000 tons of cereals and 33 000 tons of pulses. The vulnerable population is estimated at 2.571 million people, or one-third of the population, including returnees who were not engaged in farming during the 1997 A season, previous returnees who had to leave farm areas they were occupying, and vulnerable groups such as widows, elderly people living alone and orphans.
Security conditions have deteriorated considerably in the past two months, particularly in the four prefectures bordering Zaire, with increased number of violent incidents reported. Food aid distribution is being hampered in these areas.
The recently harvested secondary �Der� crop, accounting for some 25 percent of annual cereal production, was sharply reduced. Late and poor rains during the season coupled with pest infestation and insecurity in areas resulted in a reduction of one third in the area planted and negatively affected yields. Latest estimates indicate a cereal output of 45 000 tons, 60 percent below both last year and the pre-war average. Pastures and livestock are also in poor condition due to water shortages.
The 1996 main �Gu� crop was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission at 243 000 tons of cereals, 47 percent above the previous year but still one-third below normal. Moreover, the increase in production was concentrated in the Bay region and the Northwest, which together account for half of the country�s production. Elsewhere, production declined sharply. Aggregate cereal production in 1996/97 is estimated at 288 000 tons, 10 percent higher than the previous year.
The food supply situation remains tight in many areas following two successive reduced crops. Massive migration movements in search of employment and income generating activities are reported. Grain stocks are at minimum level and prices, which normally decline at harvest time, have increased significantly. The price of sorghum in late January was 65 percent higher than in November 1996. In contrast, prices of livestock have decreased sharply due to large sales by pastoralists in order to meet the cost of living and the survival of herds. Leaders of the different political factions have appealed for international food aid but the prevailing insecurity in the country hampers relief operations in the affected areas.
Import requirements for 1996/97 (September/August) are estimated at 256 000 tons. With an increase of commercial imports to some 170 000 tons, there is a deficit of 86 000 tons to be filled by food aid. Against this requirement, 17 000 tons of grains have been pledged. There is also urgent need of assistance in the form of seeds for planting of the next �Gu� crop, to start from next month.
Overall prospects for the 1997 wheat crop, to be harvested from April, are uncertain. The area planted is provisionally estimated to be similar to last year. Water levels in rivers were normal and the pest situation is considered calm. However, temperatures in January, when the crop was at critical flowering stage, were above average and may have negatively affected yield potential. Production forecasts have been lowered to 500 000 tons, 5 percent below the previous year. An FAO Crop Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in early April to make an on-the-spot appraisal of the crop.
1996/97 cereal production was forecast by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission last December, at 5.33 million tons, 50 percent higher than the reduced level of the previous year and somewhat above the bumper crop of 1994/95. Production of sorghum was estimated at 4.1 million tons, an increase of 61 percent from 1995/96 reflecting major increases in plantings, in response to higher prices, coupled with improved availability of agriculture inputs and favourable weather during the season. Millet output rose by one-quarter from the poor level of the previous year to 491 000 tons mainly as a result of larger plantings. However, production of millet was sharply reduced in the northern half of Darfur and Kordofan states, where rainfall was poor and uneven in mid-season and more than half of the crop was estimated to be unproductive.
Despite the overall satisfactory food supply position and the country�s exportable surplus of sorghum, food security is precarious in several areas of Darfur and Kordofan states, where the 1996 cereal harvest was reduced for the second consecutive year. In these vulnerable areas, the income from cash crops and livestock may be insufficient to purchase enough grain. The situation needs to be carefully monitored in the coming months and contingency plans for provision of food assistance, either by local purchases of grain or by assistance with transport from surplus producing areas, should be made. In addition, food aid is required in southern states affected by a prolonged civil war. Emergency food aid for some 2.6 million displaced and war-affected persons in these areas is estimated at 52 176 tons (including 39 000 tons of cereals).
Harvesting of the 1996/97 short �Vuli� rains crop in the bi- modal rainfall areas of the northern coastal belt and north east, which accounts for some 30 percent of annual food production in these areas, is complete. Widespread failure of the short rains in the mainland and in the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba have resulted in a poor harvest and reductions in livestock numbers in many parts. A local FAO/WFP Rapid Assessment Mission in late January which visited eight drought prone regions of Tanzania (Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Tanga, Lindi, Mtwara, Coastal, Mara, Morogoro and Dodoma), found that severe food deficits were experienced in some 24 districts in the mainland. Reduced food availability has resulted in sharp increases in food prices, to levels beyond the reach of large numbers of vulnerable population. The number of affected people is still being assessed but preliminary estimates indicate that up to 400 000 people in 24 districts of the mainland could suffer severe food shortages until the next main harvest in May. Another 400 000 people (or 50 percent of the population) could be affected in Zanzibar but the situation needs to be assessed further. In addition, despite a good 1996 main season cereal harvest overall, the crop was reduced in parts where some 280 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance until the next harvest.
The Government has requested food assistance for the drought affected population. Emergency food aid distribution is taking place. WFP will mobilize some 10 000 tons of grains, to be bought locally given the overall satisfactory food supply situation in the country, while the Government will release 55 000 tons of maize from Food Security Reserve Stocks. There is also a need to assist the affected population with agricultural inputs, mainly seeds.
Refugees in the western Kigoma region are estimated at 248 480 people (mostly Burundian but also from Zaire) and the number continues to increase daily.
Prospects for the developing crops of 1997 main �masika� season, in the unimodal rainfall areas of the south, have improved with rains in later February and early March.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Uganda from 18 February to 5 March found that the 1997 "short rains" food crops were negatively affected by erratic rains during the season, with dry weather in certain parts coupled with floods in others, and by severe infestation of Cassava Mosaic Virus in some areas. In addition, food production was reduced in northern areas by insurgencies which resulted in massive displacement of population in four districts, hindering agricultural operations. Plantings of the maize crop were also negatively affected by low prices in 1996. Although strict comparisons are difficult to make due to the lack of sound historical data by cropping season, it is estimated that the overall output of the short rains season was lower than both the previous year's level and that of a normal year.
In projecting the 1997 �long rains� food crop production, the Mission used and adjusted the 1996 data from government sources as it found that output of some crops, particularly maize, is overestimated, while that of cassava and sweet potato is underestimated. Comparing with the official estimates for 1996, the Mission forecasts for 1997 an increased production of roots and tubers but reduced production of all other crops: 1.643 million tons of cereals, 512 000 tons of pulses, 6.472 million tons of roots and tubers, and 8.940 million tons of plantains. Matching these against estimated human consumption and other uses, there is a small surplus in root and tubers but deficits in cereals and pulses.
However, given transport difficulties and because of insecurity, commercial movement of food from surplus to deficit areas is often unfeasible. Moreover, the access to food for a large proportion of the population is limited by reduced purchasing power. Hence, people seriously affected by drought and floods, as well as refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs), need food assistance despite an overall satisfactory food supply situation. WFP has been buying food in-country as far as possible for its programmes, and it intends to do so also in future. The numbers of people needing food assistance have been estimated at 150 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), 341 000 flood/drought affected people and 268 945 refugees. The estimated food assistance requirement for 1997 for all the three categories is 57 405 tons of cereals and 10 326 tons of non-cereal commodities.
In view of prevailing uncertainty and instability in crop production, particularly in the insurgency affected north, the situation needs to be kept under constant surveillance, and acted upon as the emerging situation calls for.