The early outlook for the 1997 grain harvest remains satisfactory. Heavy rain and snowfalls this winter helped replenish moisture reserves after dry conditions last year. The areas sown to winter grains (mainly wheat and barley) for harvest in 1997 have increased by about 50 000 hectares despite persistent shortages of seed. Improved availability of agricultural credit for inputs could also have a beneficial effect on yields.
Last year DRs favourable harvest of 635 000 tons coupled with increased utilization of maize-meal for human consumption, could result in a sharp fall in the 1996/97 cereal import requirement to around 300 000 tons. Against this requirement, food aid allocations, including those carried forward from last year, amount to 65 000 tons. The balance is expected to be imported commercially by the private sector, which has expanded rapidly following privatization of the wheat/bread production and distribution system. However, food aid will still be required to meet the needs of the most vulnerable groups, whose number declined with the upturn in the economy. WFP's target group for relief assistance has been reduced from 300 000 to 190 000 beneficiaries. An assessment mission will be fielded in April 1997 to examine the possibility of also using resources in food-for-work and income-generating projects. WFP's food pipeline is secured until summer, but an additional 6 800 tons (approximately US$ 4.9 million) ,will be needed to permit a continuation of food distributions throughout 1997.