Harvesting of the 1997 secondary "short rains" crops in the bimodal rainfall areas has been completed. The short rains crop represents only one-quarter of the annual cereal and pulses production, but it is the main crop in the Eastern and North-Eastern Provinces. The short rains are also important for replenishment of water and pastures in the mainly pastoral North Eastern Province. Following the failure of this year's short rains, the harvest is estimated to be sharply reduced, while poor pasture conditions and water shortages resulted in significant losses of livestock. The 1996/97 short rains season follows two consecutive failures of the previous rainy seasons. The food supply situation is extremely tight in northern and eastern parts of the country, while water scarcity has also become a serious problem. Prices of livestock have fallen sharply reflecting distress selling, at the time that prices of grains are at high levels.
The Government has declared a national disaster and is distributing relief food in 39 districts. However, with the Strategic Grain Reserve at a minimum level, it has requested international food and non food assistance. The affected population has been estimated by a UN Assessment Mission at 1.4 million people. In agricultural areas, there is also need for timely provision of seed and tools for planting in the next "long rains� season which is about to start. Most affected parts are the pastoral districts of Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit where 500 000 people, or some 90 percent of the population, are at risk of food insecurity, as well as the marginal agricultural districts of Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi in Eastern Province and the Kajiado and Taita Taveta districts in the Rift Valley and Coast Province respectively . Malnutrition is reported to be increasing in the affected districts.
Planting of the 1997 main "long rains" crop, which normally starts in mid-March, is about to start. The area planted to the main maize crop is forecast to increase reflecting a sharp increase in prices from the low level of the previous year.
The output of the 1996 "long rains" was reduced reflecting reduced plantings and yields as a result of low farm gate prices, as well as excessive rains in parts and dry weather in eastern areas. Following the failure of the secondary short rains crop, the estimate of the 1997 aggregate production of cereals made by the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment in October/November has been revised down to 2.8 million tons, including a maize output of 2.2 million tons, a decline of 18 percent from the previous year.
For the 1996/97 marketing year, the revised cereal import requirement is provisionally projected at 1.2 million tons. This is almost twice the average for the past five years. With commercial imports expected to reach 1 million tons, there is a deficit of 200 000 tons that needs to be covered by food aid to the drought-affected population. The Government has lifted a ban on maize imports as well as reduced duties in order to encourage commercial imports. Against the food aid requirement, pledges until mid-March amount to about 53 000 tons.
The reported outbreak of rinderpest will further aggravate the already serious food situation, particularly in pastoral areas.