Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Last year, on the basis of the national production survey, a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated that 1996 cereal production was below 1995, but above average. In November, a new multi- disciplinary mission visited all wilayas of the country and estimated that planted areas for off-season crops were lower than previously estimated and reviewed significantly downwards the production estimates on the basis of its qualitative observations. The aggregate output of cereals is now estimated at 130 450 tons including 74 150 tons of rice and 56 300 tons of coarse grains.
Isolated Desert Locust immature adults were present during the first two dekads of February between Akjoujt and Atar. Nomads reported seeing a mature swarm moving north in the El Hank region near Bir Amrane which may have originated near the Malian border where vegetation is reported to be green. There was also an unconfirmed report of mature adults and hoppers near the Moroccan border. No locusts were reported during the last dekad of the month. Low numbers of adults will continue to mature in parts of Adrar, Inchiri and Tiris- Zemmour. Some of these could breed on a limited scale if further rainfall occurs.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for certain populations affected by a poor crop in rainfed production areas, notably in Brakna, Gorgol and Tagant regions. Cereal prices are much higher than in previous years at the same period. In January, FAO and WFP organized a local multidonor assessment of the needs of the affected populations in Assaba, Brakna, Gorgol, Guidimaka, Tagant, Trarza and the two Hodhs. Undertaking rapid assessments of the nutritional situation, including anthropometric measures on children under 5 years, the mission observed high malnutrition rates in several villages. It recommended food assistance for 200 000 persons during 6 months amounting to 16 500 tons (14 400 tons of cereals, 1 440 tons of beans and 720 tons of vegetal oil). A WFP Emergency Operation has recently been approved to cover these needs. The government has also started food distributions in Nouakchott, Nouadhibou and other wilayas not covered by the WFP project. Food assistance is also being distributed to Tuareg refugees in one camp in the east of the country. Their number is currently estimated at 28 000. Since June 1996, about 17 000 refugees returned to Mali. In 1997, about 14 000 refugees are also anticipated to return to Mali. For the 1996/97 marketing year (November/October), the cereal import requirement including re-exports is estimated at 310 000 tons and the food aid requirement at 75 000 tons. Substantial imports exceeding 100 000 tons have already been registered from November 1996 to January 1997. Therefore, prices of wheat decreased somewhat.