An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Sri Lanka from 23 February to 7 March 1997, to estimate the 1996/97 Maha rice crop, forecast the 1997 Yala rice crop and evaluate the national cereal supply situation for 1997. In addition to general visits to key agricultural areas, the Mission also visited Vavuniya in the north, which has been suffering from civil strife for many years and which was recently affected by serious drought.
The rainfall during the 1996/97 Maha season was low and erratic. Although favourable rainfall was received in September 1996 encouraging pre planting preparations for the Maha crop, a significant decline in October severely affected land preparation and planting. As a result, the area cultivated during the Maha season only remained similar to 1995, which was severely affected by drought. However, subsequently, there was some improvement in rainfall compared to the previous year. The Mission estimated the total harvested area of the 1996/97 Maha crop at 477 000 hectares, 9 percent above 1995/96. Average yields were also better; 3.3 tons/ha compared to 3.1 tons/ha in 1995.
Overall rainfall has not been sufficient, however, to assure adequate water supplies in reservoirs and tanks. This will affect planting of the 1997 Yala crop even if summer monsoon rains are normal. The mission forecasts that some 257 000 hectares will be cultivated during the Yala season, some 8 percent more than 1996, but 33 percent less than the bumper crop in 1995. The projected yield for Yala paddy is also 3.3 tons/ha, similar to the Maha crop.
The Mission estimates aggregate production of the 1996/97 Maha crop at 1.602 million tons and forecasts the output of the 1997 Yala crop at 855 000 tons. Overall, paddy production available in 1997 is therefore estimated at 2.457 million tons, 22 percent more than last year, though 13 percent less than the above average crop in 1994/95.
The total availability of milled rice for 1997 is estimated at 1.682 million tons, based on a milling rate of 66 percent and a carry-over stock of 60 000 tons. Against this the country requires 2.170 million tons for total utilisation, including consumption, seed, feed and contingency stocks. This leaves an import requirement of 488 000 tons of rice for 1997, most of which is anticipated to be commercial. In addition it is assumed that the Government will import some 900 000 tons of wheat to meet demand.
Rice farmers normally retain sufficient quantities of rice at harvest, to cover domestic requirements, with any surplus being marketed. However in anticipation of a reduced Yala crop this year, less rice is expected to be sold. The flow of imports will therefore be important in determining price and delays may result in an increase as they did in 1996.
Part of the population in the north has not been able to practice normal farming during 1996/97 due to civil strife and drought conditions. In addition, these segments of the population, mainly located in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullativu, Mannar and Vavuniya, do not receive Government assistance. The Mission estimates that some 44 500 families or 222 500 people fall into this category which have been severely affected by a loss of production in two consecutive years. As a result, they require food assistance for 12 months. Another 4 200 families or 21 000 people who lost the 1996 Maha crop will also need food aid for at least 6 months. To meet these needs, it is estimated that some 22 400 tons of rice and 11 200 tons of wheat will be required in food assistance.