An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Uganda from 18 February to 5 March found that the 1997 "short rains" food crops were negatively affected by erratic rains during the season, with dry weather in certain parts coupled with floods in others, and by severe infestation of Cassava Mosaic Virus in some areas. In addition, food production was reduced in northern areas by insurgencies which resulted in massive displacement of population in four districts, hindering agricultural operations. Plantings of the maize crop were also negatively affected by low prices in 1996. Although strict comparisons are difficult to make due to the lack of sound historical data by cropping season, it is estimated that the overall output of the short rains season was lower than both the previous year's level and that of a normal year.
In projecting the 1997 �long rains� food crop production, the Mission used and adjusted the 1996 data from government sources as it found that output of some crops, particularly maize, is overestimated, while that of cassava and sweet potato is underestimated. Comparing with the official estimates for 1996, the Mission forecasts for 1997 an increased production of roots and tubers but reduced production of all other crops: 1.643 million tons of cereals, 512 000 tons of pulses, 6.472 million tons of roots and tubers, and 8.940 million tons of plantains. Matching these against estimated human consumption and other uses, there is a small surplus in root and tubers but deficits in cereals and pulses.
However, given transport difficulties and because of insecurity, commercial movement of food from surplus to deficit areas is often unfeasible. Moreover, the access to food for a large proportion of the population is limited by reduced purchasing power. Hence, people seriously affected by drought and floods, as well as refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs), need food assistance despite an overall satisfactory food supply situation. WFP has been buying food in-country as far as possible for its programmes, and it intends to do so also in future. The numbers of people needing food assistance have been estimated at 150 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), 341 000 flood/drought affected people and 268 945 refugees. The estimated food assistance requirement for 1997 for all the three categories is 57 405 tons of cereals and 10 326 tons of non-cereal commodities.
In view of prevailing uncertainty and instability in crop production, particularly in the insurgency affected north, the situation needs to be kept under constant surveillance, and acted upon as the emerging situation calls for.