Agricultural activities throughout the country continue to be hindered by insecurity, shortages of agricultural inputs and poor irrigation system. Prospects for the 1997 winter crops are therefore uncertain. The 1997 aggregate output of wheat and barley is unofficially estimated at a below-normal 1.87 million tons.
According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, flooding in April caused widespread damage to infrastructure and agriculture. About 2 500 livestock were reported killed, 7 100 hectares of farmland were flooded and 20 000 persons were affected by the floods in 10 provinces in northern part of the country. The Afghan Red Crescent Society estimated that about 500 000 families are in need of food assistance and relief items and appealed for 25 000 tons of food. An estimated 140 000 people were forced to leave their homes in the Shomali Valley, due to insecurity, and that a further 36 000 people have been displaced by fighting in Badghis.
Food prices have reportedly risen in March and April due to the non-availability of food during the lean season and the closure of the Pakistan border. After mid-May, prices started decreasing as a result of the onset of the harvest in eastern and southern parts of the country and the arrival of wheat from Pakistan.
An FAO/WFP Mission is currently making an on-the-spot assessment of the crop and food supply situation in the country.
The import requirement of cereals in 1997/98, mostly wheat, is forecast at about 1.5 million tons. Expected cereal food aid deliveries for 1996/97 amount to 150 000 tons.
In mid-May, a cyclone killed at least 112 people and left a million homeless. Some 23 thanas were severely affected in coastal areas. Provisional estimates indicate that the standing boro crop was damaged on around 15 000 hectares. In addition rural households lost food and seed stocks. The economic cost of crop damage is estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture at about US $16.46 million. Overall damage to rice was limited, however, by the fact that a large proportion of the boro crop had already been harvested.
Output of the recently harvested wheat crop is put at a bumper 1.4 million tons, slightly higher than estimated earlier, some 80 000 tons above last year and 18 percent above average for the preceding five years. The bumper crop is attributed to favourable weather conditions and adequate supplies of fertilizer and water which enhanced yields. Favourable weather conditions overall are also expected to result in a Boro rice crop of some 7.33 million tons, slightly below target and similar to last year. The production of milled rice in 1996/97, is estimated at some 18.75 million tons, comprising 1.87 million tons from the Aus, 9.55 million tons from the Aman and 7.33 million tons from the Boro crops respectively.
Favourable cereal production in 1996/97, will reduce import requirements of both rice and wheat. Wheat imports are now estimated at around 1.1 million tons and rice imports 150 000 tons for the calendar year. Rice prices have been stable in recent weeks, reflecting a relatively comfortable food grain situation. Government cereal stocks at the end of March stood at 923 000 tons, of which 516 000 tons were rice and 407 000 tons wheat.
Land preparation for of the main 1997 �wet� season paddy crop is underway for planting in July/August. Final outcome will depend heavily on the quantity and distribution of monsoon rainfall over the next five months. Harvesting of dry season paddy was completed in March/April and an output of some 657 000 tons is expected. Aggregate paddy production in 1996/97 is therefore put at 3.39 million tons, from an area of 2.17 million hectares. As a result favourable rice production for the second consecutive year the country has a national surplus of some 127 000 tons for 1997. In spite of the national surplus, however, large segments of population in an estimated 265 communes continue to face varying degrees of food shortage this year, requiring assistance.
Rain in recent weeks, maintained favourable conditions for summer crops and rice across most parts of the country, also increasing topsoil moisture for vegetative spring wheat and germinating maize. In northern parts of the country, rains favoured summer crops in vegetative state and the late- filling of winter wheat, whilst lower rainfall in southern parts in late May reduced excessively wet conditions, which prevailed earlier. Temperatures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C below normal across most of the country in late May.
Official reports indicate that a bumper summer grain crop, consisting mainly of early rice and spring wheat is expected this year. Summer crops represent around 22 percent of the annual grain harvest. The good prospects are attributed to favourable weather and a slight increase in area planted this year to 31.8 million hectares, some 333 000 hectares above last year. Total grain production last year was put at 490 million tons of which the contribution from summer crops was 114.1 million tons. Official figures indicate that the country imported some 550 000 tons of wheat in the first four months of 1997, down 72.5 percent compared with the same period last year. In the same four month period, the country exported 160 000 tons of rice and 530 000 tons of maize.
As a result of record below-average rainfall during the growing season, the output of wheat and barley, now being harvested, is estimated at 10 000 tons and 90 000 tons, respectively, both lower than last year�s output. Cereal production normally covers less than one-third of total domestic requirements.
Imports of cereals in 1997/98 (May/April) are estimated at 560 000 tons, some 60 000 tons more than in previous year.
In the last dekad of May, some 20 people were killed and 150 injured in the aftermath of a severe earthquake in the state of Madhya Pradesh. Although some 13 000 dwellings were damaged in rural areas, the full extent of any damage to crops has yet to be determined.
Official reports indicate that monsoon rains, which normally arrive in extreme south-western parts around June 1, arrived about a week late this year. The reports also indicate this year�s monsoon is likely to be normal for the tenth successive year, based on an analysis of various indicators. Notwithstanding these reports, it is however to early to predict the impact of the monsoon on overall agricultural performance and there have been some reports that dry, hot weather conditions have slowed planting of Kharif rice in some parts. Low and erratic rainfall over several years in the state of Orissa, in the north east, have resulted in serious lack of water, agricultural problems and food shortages in 21 out of 30 districts, including Bolangir, Kalahandi, Nuapara and Koroput. Unconfirmed reports also indicate that some 500 000 people have migrated from drought affected districts as a result of the deteriorating food situation.
Harvesting of rabi (winter) crops (mainly wheat) is almost complete. The output of wheat from this year�s harvest is officially forecast at some 64.7 million tons, around 2 million tons or 3 percent higher than 1996 and 7 percent higher than average for the preceding five years. The official estimate of aggregate food grain production (including milled rice and pulses) in 1996/97 is put at 192.11 million tons compared to 185.04 million tons in the previous year. More than 75 percent of aggregate food grain production is attributed to rice and wheat. Land preparation and planting of 1997/98 �kharif� crops, mainly rice and coarse grains, is underway in parts. Almost 60 percent of the kharif crop is unirrigated and depends on monsoon rains for crop development.
It is estimated that the Food Corporation of India (FCI) had procured 8.85 million tons of wheat from farmers up to June 10, compared with 8.1 million in the same period last year. Total arrivals in domestic markets were estimated at around 10.5 million tons up to June 10 compared with 9 million tons in 1996. The government earlier this month announced that state agencies were expected to buy about 11.1 million tons of wheat for sale in 1997/98 compared with 8.2 million for 1996/97. It is estimated that the country will import around 1.8 million tons of wheat this year, of which an estimated 1.47 million tons had arrived by May 2.
In Java, in the six week period to the end of May, above normal cumulative rainfall was received over most of the peninsula. However, light to moderate showers (5-40 mm) in the last dekad of May, caused no serious delays in the harvest of main-season rice. Aggregate paddy production in 1997 is projected to increase to around 52 million tons, some 2 million tons or 4 percent above last year and 8 percent above average for the preceding five years. Under plans to increase rice production in the country, it is reported that the government will resettle 20 000 families or around 80 000 people on Borneo island to allow additional cultivation of one million hectares of land with rice. The 1996/97 maize crop is also likely to increase due to several factors including, favourable weather, expansion of hybrid seeds, timely supply of fertilizers and increased yields. The area and production targets for maize in 1996/97 are 3.6 million hectares and 8.9 million tons respectively.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (17 June)
It is estimated that some 2 000 people were killed and 50 000 displaced when a powerful earthquake, measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale, hit Mashhad and other cities in the north- eastern province of Khorasan on 10 May. The earthquake also caused considerable damage to irrigation systems which will seriously affect food and cash crop production. In addition there was substantial loss of livestock, though the full extent of the damage is yet to be determined. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has issued an appeal for $8.2 million to supply vital relief supplies.
Drought in north-eastern parts of the country, is estimated to have caused extensive damage to wheat and barley crops on an estimated 129 000 hectares with the economic cost of damage put at 12.87 billion rials ($4.27 million). Additional damage was reported to pastures and herds. The worst affected area was Gonbad Kavous. It is estimated that wheat production will be around 10.5 million tons this year due to adverse weather conditions and lower cultivated area as a result of unattractive government procurement prices and diversion of land to other crops.
The country�s imports of wheat this year (July/June) are expected to reach around 6 million tons.
The outlook for 1997 winter crops remains uncertain due to reports of low rain in all parts of the country, especially in northern areas where irrigation depends mainly on rainfall. Moreover, scarcity of basic agricultural inputs such as quality seeds, spare parts, vaccines and agrochemicals and the widespread incidence of pests, weeds and animal diseases, will further constrain yields. The output of wheat and barley for the 1996/97 winter crop season is forecast to be significantly below normal.
Under the oil-for-food deal, U.S.$ 804.63 million are allocated to the procurement of food commodities to insure a daily energy intake of 2 030 kcal and 47 gm of protein per person/day. By the end of May, the country had received 692 000 tons of food, about a third of the 2.2 million tons expected under the deal. The first commodities under the agreement began arriving in late March, and distribution of wheat flour started in April. In May, food distribution included rations of wheat flour, rice, pulses and oil. As for salt, sugar and tea, deliveries had not been sufficient for a monthly distribution. The distribution of the full ration quota is expected to start in July. An Emergency Feeding Operation, targeted at vulnerable groups whose special food needs will not be covered by the distribution of food under the deal, has been jointly approved by FAO and WFP for the period 1 April-31 December 1997. The oil-for-food deal was extended for another 6 months by the United Nations Security Council on 4 June 1997.
An FAO/WFP Food and Nutrition Assessment Mission was fielded to the country in June and should complete its work in July.
As a result of unfavourable weather, production of wheat in 1997 is expected to be lower than last year. Output of cereals, mostly wheat, is estimated at some 147 000 tons, some 9 000 tons below last year�s production.
Imports of cereals in 1996/97 (October/September) are forecast at some 2.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous year. Purchase of imported wheat by domestic flour millers is linked to the domestic wheat procurement at a higher price than that prevailing in the world market.
Adequate rainfall in the last dekad of May maintained favourable moisture conditions for planting of the 1997 rice crop, which is currently underway. Temperatures in the last week of May were reported to be 1 to 2 degrees C below normal. The final estimate of paddy production in 1996 was put at 12.93 million tons, equivalent to 9.37 million tons of milled rice.
Recent reports indicate that in 1997 the amount of rice to be imported under the Uruguay Round Agreement though unspecified, is expected to be around 530 600 tons (about 6 percent of domestic consumption).
Favourable rainfall in the last week of January improved growing conditions. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 1997 is estimated at 100 000 tons, some 47 percent higher than last year�s poor harvest. Potato production in 1997 estimated at 120 000 tons, is 9 percent higher than in previous year.
The country is planning to replace its food rationing system with cash handouts by September in a effort to liberalize the current costly subsidy programme. If implemented, it will eliminate a ration card system which offers substantial allotments of rice, sugar and powdered milk at subsidized prices to over 90 percent of the population every three months. The cash handout scheme is similar to that introduced last year to cut bread subsidies and is expected to be less costly than the current food rationing system.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 0.43 million tons, some 20 percent lower than the previous year.
In the last week of May, widespread rain 20-40 mm maintained adequate to abundant moisture levels for transplanted rice across the country, whilst temperatures averaged 1 to 2 degrees C below normal. General weather conditions favoured planting and germination of the 1997 main rice crop, to be harvested in October- November. The target for milled rice production in 1997 has been set at 4.87 million tons against a favourable harvest of 5.32 million tons produced in 1996. Output in 1996, was some 13 percent above 1995 and 5.5 percent higher than average for the preceding five years. The increase in production was attributed to good weather and a sharp slowdown in the decline in area under paddy.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF * (23 June)
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission found that the food supply situation has deteriorated rapidly, with stocks near depletion.
As a result, the occurrence of dietary deficiencies and disease have increased and in some observed cases the state of malnutrition has become chronic and life threatening. The emergence of commonly recognized pre-famine indicators suggest that starvation will ensue in segments of the population before the next harvest, unless remedial action is taken urgently. A few households visited by the mission reported deaths due to starvation, whilst a number of children and adults observed had symptoms of wasting and oedema due to protein deficiency and possibly Kwashiorkor.
Taking into account 430 000 tons of cereals it was estimated the country could import commercially, the volume of food aid delivered and in the pipeline and reductions in the use of grain for animal feed and industrial uses, the last FAO/WFP mission estimated that the country would have a cereal deficit of some 1.2 million tons for the current marketing year (November/October), with which it needed assistance to meet minimum food needs. Since the mission in May, however, there has been an increase in pledges of food assistance to the country. Although some of the additional pledges still need to be confirmed, it is now estimated that the country will receive around 560 000 tons in multilateral/bilateral food aid this marketing year, leaving it with an uncovered deficit of around 940 000 tons.
More international food assistance is still urgently needed to avoid further human suffering. However, although such assistance is vital in the short run, there is also urgent need for the country to address the food problem in the medium to long term and consider implementing appropriate and sustainable agricultural and economic strategies.
Early prospects for 1997 crops are favourable, reflecting early winter thaw in March and good rains since the beginning of May. Food production in 1997, will, nonetheless, continue to be seriously constrained by the lack of essential agricultural inputs. Even under an optimistic scenario, therefore, the production of maize and rice is provisionally forecast at about four million tons, which will be substantially below requirements for the next marketing year.
Planting of the 1997 main season rice crop is underway, to coincide with the arrival of the monsoon. The crop will be harvested in November/December.
In 1996, adverse weather conditions seriously affected rice production in major rice producing areas in the lowlands of Central and Southern Region. The provinces of Khammouane, Savannakhet and Champasack were the most affected, where an estimated 420 000 people require assistance.
In view of the shortage, an emergency operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in March 1997, to raise 30 240 tons of rice for flood victims.
The output of 1997 wheat and barley, now being harvested, is expected to be about average. Domestic cereal production, however, only covers about 10 percent of total requirements and more than 700 000 tons have to be imported.
Imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.76 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
Planting of the second paddy crop, which normally accounts for around 38 percent of aggregate production is near completion, favoured in early May by moderate showers across the peninsula. Paddy production in 1997 is provisionally forecast at some 2.0 million tons some 6 percent and 4 percent lower than 1996 and the average for the preceding five years respectively
Cereal production in the country continues to decline as a result of continuing problems in the agricultural sector. In addition this year, reports indicate that output may fall by a further 17 percent, due to a shortage of seed at the time of planting, which would leave some 50 000 hectares out of a target of some 280 000 to 300 000 hectares planned, unplanted.
Transitional problems in the economy, coupled with dwindling domestic cereal supplies severely constrain the country�s ability to feed its people. The unemployed, the elderly, female headed households, children, pensioners and small herders are considered the most vulnerable. These segments of the population have limited financial resources to purchase food from a market which is being increasingly liberalized. Even those in employment face considerable problems in meeting household demand for food as inflation remains high and increases in food prices have so far substantially outpaced wages in the public sector. This year reports from NGOs and international agencies working in the country indicate that the nutritional situation in parts of the country has deteriorated sharply with significant numbers of people having severely reduced food intake.
For the most vulnerable groups in society, those categorized as being absolutely poor, an FAO mission last year recommended that some 22 000 tons be provided in emergency food aid. It is estimated that to date some 5 000 tons have been provided bilaterally, whilst plans are being finalized for some 8 000 tons of additional wheat flour.
Land preparation for the 1997 main paddy crop is underway to coincide with the arrival of the south-west monsoon. The early outlook is satisfactory, though much will depend on rainfall and availability of inputs during the season.
The aggregate output of paddy for 1996/97 is estimated at around 17 million tons, around average, though slightly below the previous year. The 1996 main monsoon rice crop was affected by heavy rains in November, short supply of quality seed and fertilizers and some pest and disease problems. Rice exports in 1997 are projected at around 350 000 tons.
Output of the recently harvested wheat crop is estimated at around one million tons, similar to last year�s above average production.
Agriculture in the country remains largely rain-fed, with only about 30 percent of irrigable land supplied with either river or ground water. Moreover, recent studies indicate that if the target of doubling foodgrain output by the year 2000 (from that in 1985) is to be achieved, there needs to be much greater use of inorganic fertilizer .
Harvesting of wheat is over. Early season dry weather in rainfed areas and a fall in fertilizer use will result in lower production this year. Output is now expected to be around 15.8 million tons, some 6 percent down on last year and 2 percent lower than average. The target for this year was 18 millions tons. To encourage agricultural production in the country, support prices for important food commodities, wheat, rice and oilseeds were increased in April. Other measures being considered to stimulate production include an end to sales tax on government-certified seeds and a cut in duties on locally-made tractors and other agricultural machinery and a reduction in import duty on used and reconditioned harvesters from 35 percent to 10 percent.
At the beginning of June, some 30 people were reported to have been killed by floods caused by heavy rain on the main island of Luzon. The heavy rain also caused heavy mud slides from the slopes of Mount Pinatubo. Official reports estimate that some 79 000 families in 600 villages and 38 towns in central Luzon were at risk from these mud slides. Notwithstanding the adverse effects of the floods, rainfall has been generally favourable for land preparation and early development of rice and maize.
Harvesting of the secondary rice and coarse grains crop is near completion. The output of paddy in 1996/97 is estimated at some 11.58 million tons, 4 percent higher than the previous year and 15 percent above average for the preceding five years. The increase is partly attributed to attractive farm prices, which resulted in an increase in area and improved yields. Despite higher production, domestic supply lags growing demand, stimulated by an increasing population. In addition, yields per hectare have remained relatively stagnant for the past three years. To meet demand and counter possible price hikes during the third quarter, the country may import up to 650 000 tons of rice in 1997. Recent Government figures indicate that maize production from January to June this year is expected to rise to 1.844 million tons from 1.778 million tons in the same period last year.
Official reports indicate that the country will now only grow sufficient wheat and barley to meet domestic demand and boost strategic reserves, but not for export. As a result, wheat and barley production fell to some 1.7 million tons in 1996 from 6 million tons in 1992. Water consumption by wheat framers dropped to 1 850 million cubic meters in 1996 from about 6 990 million cubic meters in 1992, while water used by barley growers fell to 510 million cubic meters from some 2 010 million cubic meters in the same period. Production of wheat in 1997 is estimated at 1.5 million tons, slightly higher than last year. The output of barley, estimated at 800 000 tons, is about 78 percent higher than last year.
Imports of barley in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 5.8 million tons, some 29 percent higher than last year.
Large scale control operations have been undertaken against numerous small hopper bands on the Read Sea Coastal plains near Jeddah. About 81 000 hectares were treated during April. As vegetation dries along the coastal plains, adults and any swarms formed are expected to move towards the interior and hoppers may appear some time in June.
Reports from the country�s meteorology department indicate that the southwest monsoon had been delayed. A drought last year led to a serious reduction in agricultural production significantly reducing the country�s main maha and second yala rice crops. Aggregate paddy production in 1997 is put at 2.457 million tons and total availability of milled rice at 1.682 million tons, including a carry-over stock of around 60 000 tons. Against this the country requires 2.170 million tons for total utilization, including consumption seed, feed and contingency stocks, leaving an import requirement of 488 000 tons of rice for 1997, most of which is anticipated to be commercial. In addition it is assumed that the Government will import some 900 000 tons of wheat to meet demand.
The food situation in northern parts of the country continues to give cause for concern. At the beginning of June, it was reported that the government were transporting fresh food supplies to Wanni, following reports of stocks running low. Humanitarian agencies report that food stocks in the area were strained by the number of fresh refugees and intensified fighting earlier.
Production of wheat in 1997 is estimated at 4.2 million tons, 120 000 tons above last year�s output, while barley output estimated at 1.6 million tons, is about 3 percent lower than in the previous year.
As the bulk of the wheat produced is durum wheat, imports of some 100 000 tons of wheat flour are expected in 1996/97. Imports of maize in 1996/97 (July/June) are estimated at 166 000 tons, some 3 percent higher than last year.
In the last dekad of May, widespread showers (10-60 mm) continued to ease dryness and favour rainfed rice especially in the east. No significant delays in the harvest of second season rice are anticipated whilst main season rice is being planted.
Recently it was announced that the country will allow rice imports of some 240 500 tons in 1997 under World Trade Organization obligations. The quota will be divided into two deliveries 114 240 tons in the period May to August and 126 260 tons from September to December. Rice exports in 1996 are put at 5.29 million tons against the target of 5 million tons. Despite an anticipated increase in world rice production and stronger competition from other exporting countries, exports of Thai rice in 1997 are forecast to remain steady. The rice export target for 1997 has been revised up to 5.35 million tons from 5.0 million tons earlier.
Although overall conditions are reported to be good, yields of wheat in 1997/98 are forecast to decline slightly from those in 1996/97, due to severe cold in mid-February. Wheat production in 1997 is estimated at 17 million tons, about 8 percent lower than last year�s. Production of barley, estimated at 8.5 million tons, is 0.5 million tons higher than in the previous year. Area cropped to maize is expected to increase by some 19 percent in 1997/98, due to better returns. Maize output is expected to be higher than 2 million tons, due to high procurement price and expected increase in demand.
The country�s 1997 import tariff regime which was published on 23 March 1997 will be applied retroactively to 1 January 1997. Tariffs for most bulk commodities are unchanged from the rates that were in effect at the end of 1996.
Wheat imports in 1997/98 are forecast at 1 million tons and will be determined mainly by the quality of the domestic crop and procurement price. Despite expected increases in production, maize imports are projected at some 700 000 tons to account for increased demand. Barley exports in 1997/98 are forecast to increase, mainly due to TMO�s need to reduce storage costs, resulting from a large carryover and expected good production.
Harvesting of winter-spring paddy is almost complete in the south and is underway in the north, whilst planting of summer paddy, for harvest in July/August is complete in the south and well advanced in central provinces, favoured by rainfall at the beginning of the month. However, heavy winds and a cyclone recently damaged extensive areas of rice, especially in Thang Binh district of Quang Nam province and the province of Lam Dong. Recent reports also suggest that a drought in the northern mountainous province of Son La since April has caused extensive damage to crops.
Official reports indicate that for 1997 the country had exported some 831 500 tons of rice by April, an increase of 14 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Recently a number of policies were introduced to increase the production and export of rice. The country exported some 3 million tons of rice in 1996, a notable increase over the previous year. The Government target for 1997 is also 3.5 million tons. Of this amount, it is anticipated that the bulk will be exported in the period January to end September.
Overall normal rainfall, except in Hodeidah, allowed sowing of the main sorghum and millet crops to be harvested toward October. The aggregate output of sorghum and millet in 1997 is estimated at some 529 000 tons, about 29 percent lower than last year.
Imports of cereals in 1997 - mainly wheat- are estimated at some 2 million tons.