Prospects deteriorated somewhat for the bulk of the wheat and coarse grain crops during July and early August due to generally hot and dry conditions which have reduced moisture availability and led to premature maturation in parts. The exception is the Peace River region in northern Alberta where ample moisture has been available throughout the season. In the previously flooded Red River valley, crops need continued hot weather to make use of available moisture. Based on the latest official estimates of seeded area for the 1997 harvest, and assuming a somewhat lower yield than earlier anticipated, because of the adverse weather, wheat output in 1997 is now forecast at about 26 million tons, 15 percent down from 1996, while coarse grains output is forecast 4 percent down at 27.5 million tons.
The 1997 winter wheat harvest is virtually complete and for spring wheat the harvest is well underway. Following generally favourable conditions for the winter wheat harvest and spring wheat development, official estimates for wheat production have been increased significantly over the last two months. Winter wheat production is now estimated at 50.5 million tons, about 25 percent up from last year's poor crop. The forecast for spring wheat output has also been revised up marginally, to about 18.4 million tons, which would be virtually unchanged from the good crop last year despite a reduction in plantings. Prospects for the 1997 coarse grain crop have deteriorated somewhat over the past two months due to hot and dry weather in the major producing Corn Belt states. The USDA 1 August crop report put aggregate coarse grain production at 263.1 million tons. Of the total, maize is now forecast at 235.6 million tons, down from earlier projections and marginally below last year's crop despite a slight area increase. Sorghum output is now forecast at about 16 million tons, much lower than in 1996 due to a reduction in plantings. However, with the main coarse grain crops still some way off harvesting, the final outcome will still depend largely on the weather in the remainder of August through early October.