OCEANIA

Prospects for the 1997 winter crops have deteriorated over the past two months due to persisting dry conditions related to the development of a strong “El Niño” weather event. By late July, the adverse affect of the “El Niño” weather pattern had mainly affected eastern and southern Australia, where June and July rainfall was well below average. Reflecting the poorer than normal growing conditions already affecting some areas, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics' (ABARE) forecast for the 1997 wheat crop remains well below earlier expectations at 16.3 million tons, which would be some 30 percent down from last year's record output of 23.5 million. A significant reduction in production of barley (the main winter coarse grain) is also expected, with output now forecast at just over 4 million tons, compared to 6.6 million tons in 1996. However, the outcome of the 1997 winter crop harvest will still depend greatly on weather conditions during the remainder of the season. Adequate soil moisture at planting time ensured that most crops were well established, and timely rain could still produce above average yields even if the season's total rainfall is below normal.