SOUTH AMERICA

ARGENTINA (20 August)

Sowing of the 1997 wheat crop is delayed because of insufficient moisture in some areas of the large producing states of Cordoba and southern and central Santa Fe, but mainly because of excessive precipitation, attributed to “El Niño” wet winter effect, in the main producing province of Buenos Aires. Both Cordoba and Santa Fe account for about 20 percent of the total area planted to wheat. By early August, about 83 percent of intended plantings had been sown compared to 93 percent by the same time last year. Latest official forecasts point out to a likely decline in the area planted from over 7 million hectares in 1996 to some 6 to 6.25 million hectares in 1997. Assuming normal weather resumes, production could reach 14 million tons which compares to last year record 16 million tons.

Planting of the barley crop is also delayed. The total area planted should be an above-average 200 000 to 225 00 hectares.

BOLIVIA (17 August)

Planting of the 1997 winter wheat and sorghum crops has been completed under dry weather which is attributed to the early effects of “El Niño”. Preliminary forecasts indicate that wheat production for the whole year should increase from 92 000 tons in 1996 to an average 108 000 tons. Maize output is provisionally estimated at a record 700 000 tons while a near record barley outturn is also anticipated. By contrast, the sorghum crop has been affected by dry weather and only 31 000 hectares compared to last year’s 55 000 hectares have been sown. Production of potatoes should be a satisfactory 1 million tons.

Planting of the 1998 main season cereal crops will be near completion by the end of the present year, which would coincide with the expected strongest impact of “El Niño” and therefore the crops may be affected by forecast dry weather.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) are expected to increase from the previous year receipts of 330 000 tons to about 375 000 tons, reflecting a continuing strong domestic demand.

BRAZIL (12 August)

Normal to abundant rains in June benefited the development of the 1997 wheat crop in the main producing regions of Southern Brazil. Harvesting is about to start and output is provisionally forecast at 2.9 million tons, which compares to 3.3 million tons in 1996. The decline is mostly due to the combination of decreased plantings, caused by unattractive prices to producers, and dry weather at planting in the key producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which together account for about 94 percent of total domestic production. Production in the former state is anticipated to decline from 2 million tons to 1.7 million tons while that in Rio Grande do Sul should drop to 780 000 tons from a high 1 million tons in 1996. Fieldwork has been initiated in the main producing areas for planting of the 1997/98 maize and paddy crops to be started from August and October respectively. Should forecasts of above-normal rains towards the end of the year, attributed to “El Niño” effect materialize, reduction of plantings is likely to occur.

CHILE (1 August)

Planting of the 1997/98 wheat crop has been recently completed and fieldwork has begun in preparation for sowing of the coarse grain crops. Agricultural activities had been interrupted in early June as a consequence of storm rains and flooding, attributed to “El Niño” effect, with serious damage to housing and infrastructure, but which also put an end to a long and severe dry spell affecting the country. The area planted to wheat is provisionally estimated at a slightly above average 420 000 hectares, a significant recovery from the 1996 drought affected level. Intended plantings of maize and oats should be above average.

COLOMBIA (10 August)

Harvesting of the 1997 main season cereal crops has started under normal conditions. Early forecasts indicate that aggregate cereal output should be about 3.4 million tons, compared to last year 3.3 million tons, but nevertheless below the last 5-year average. Maize output is expected to be an average 1.1 million tons, but sorghum production is anticipated to decline from a below-average 540 000 tons in 1996 to some 500 000 tons. The paddy crop, by contrast, should be about 1.7 million tons, some 5 percent up from the previous year and about average.

Maize imports in marketing year 1997/98 (January/December) are anticipated to be close to last year 1.1 million tons. About 80 000 tons of rice should be imported in order to cover the strong domestic demand.

ECUADOR (18 August)

Heavy rains and flooding in early July, attributed to “El Niño” effects, affected the paddy, banana and sugar crops in some parts of the coastal areas of the country. Similar threatening effects are forecast towards the end of the year. In response, the Government has allocated the necessary funds that will allow for the construction of some infrastructure projects to help mitigate the eventual impact of the phenomenon. Harvesting of the 1997 main season cereal and potato crops is well advanced. Latest forecasts indicate that a near record 650 000 tons of maize, the main crop, should be gathered. An above-average 50 000 tons of barley are anticipated. The modest wheat crop, mostly grown in the highlands, should also be satisfactory. The output of paddy is provisionally forecast at about 1.28 million tons which compares to last year 1.19 million tons and a 700 000 tons average for the last 5 years.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/December) should be similar to last year receipts of 485 000 tons. Maize imports should decrease from 100 000 tons to some 60 000 tons while some 30 000 tons of barley are forecast, similar to 1996.

PERU (20 August)

The Government has declared a state of emergency in 9 of the 24 departments of the country in order to adopt the necessary measures in anticipation of “El Niño” effects which are forecast for the second half of the year. The strongest impact is expected, however, between December and March next year. Floods are forecast in the northern parts, while dry conditions are expected in the south. Allocated funds will be used to improve the agricultural sector with the repair of irrigation channels, strengthening of bridges and other projects, particularly in the northern department of Piura, one of the worst affected areas by “El Niño” in the past. Harvesting of the 1997 cereal crop is underway. Aggregate cereal output is provisionally forecast at 2.3 million tons, slightly below last year record. Small declines are expected from all cereals, except maize, which should be at a record level and thus compensate for the overall anticipated reduction.

Wheat imports in marketing year 1997 (January/ December) should be about 1.2 million tons, similar to 1996 high level of imports. Maize imports are provisionally forecast at 750 000 tons while those of barley should be about 70 000 tons.

URUGUAY (10 August)

Normal rains keep benefiting planting of the 1997/98 wheat crop. Intended plantings are provisionally forecast at a near record 250 000 hectares, as farmers are attracted by anticipated increasing exports. Fieldwork is underway in preparation of planting of the coarse grain and the important paddy crops, which is due to start from September. An above- average 280 000 hectares are expected to be sown as a whole. Barley plantings are forecast at record level.

VENEZUELA (18 August)

Torrential rains and flooding in July have affected planting of the coarse grains and other foodcrops, currently underway. Tentative forecasts point out to an increase in maize production from last year's above average 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons. This reflects expanded plantings mainly attributed to the strong demand from the animal feed industry. The output of sorghum, by contrast, is estimated at a poor 250 000 tons which compares to last year's average crop of 436 000 tons. This is principally the result of the large volume of low priced imports which have caused serious farmers troubles and civilian unrest in some of the growing areas of the country. Harvesting of the paddy output has been completed and an above-average outturn of about 640 000 tons has been collected.