The sowing of winter grains, mostly wheat and barley crops, is underway and it is too early to give an indication of production prospects for the 1998 crops. However, planting may be hampered in the eight northern provinces, due mainly to ongoing fighting. As these northern provinces together comprise some 40 percent of the country’s irrigated cereal and about 53 percent of its rainfed area, a decline of the 1997/98 production is expected if security conditions do not improve in the coming months. Low to moderate numbers of adults and perhaps a few small groups or swarmlets of desert locusts may appear in the extreme south and lay in areas of recent rainfall. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the country last June/July estimated the 1997 total cereal production at 3.66 million tons, comprising 2.71 million tons of wheat, 0.4 million tons of rice, 0.3 million tons of maize and 0.25 million tons of barley. The 1997 harvest, which is 18 percent higher than the previous year’s, is the largest since 1978. This was mainly due to a good growing season in most areas (including the north). Rainfall was above average and rains were well distributed, although some flooding occurred in localized areas.
The food situation is tight in some localized areas. Food and fuel prices were reported to be very high in the whole Badakshan region since September, mainly due to an extremely difficult access. Bamyan in North-Central of the country, a traditional deficit area, is critically short of basic foods as a result of closure of access routes from the north and the south. This region has been additionally affected by floods in the spring and by frost and heavy rain. WFP has recently issued an appeal to the Taliban to allow food aid deliveries to Bamyan.
Imports of cereals in 1997/98 are forecast at 710 000 tons, the same as last year. Emergency food aid in 1997/98 is estimated at 170 000 tons, including 150 000 tons of cereals. Afghanistan signed a contract to buy 600 000 tons of wheat from Pakistan, and to ease flour price, 50 000 tons of this sale will be transported to Afghanistan each month.
Generally favourable weather conditions during this year’s monsoon season are expected to boost domestic food production for the second year in succession as the country experienced low levels of monsoon flooding and drought. In addition, output was aided by the timely provision of subsidized agricultural inputs, such as fertilizer, pesticides and irrigation. As a result, the shortfall between supply and demand and the need for imports to meet the deficit is expected to decline further. The main import will be wheat. Grain output rose by 6.5 percent to 20.3 million tons in 1996/97 from 19.06 million tons in the previous season. For 1997/98, the target is to increase aggregate output by around 4 percent.
Provisionally, milled rice production for 1997/98 is projected at 18.7 million tons, similar to last year’s record and some 4 percent above average for the preceding five years. The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. Due to higher procurement, government held rice stocks at the end of August 1997 were estimated at 461 000 tons.
Average rainfall during October helped ease dry conditions especially in the provinces of Kandal, Kampong Speu, Takeo, Prey Veng and Kampong Cham which had received sharply reduced rainfall since July. Overall, although cumulative rainfall this year is near normal, it is less favourable than in 1996 and the spatial distribution has not been good, with some localities receiving adequate quantities and others not. Coastal areas of the country were also affected by Typhoon Linda at the beginning of November, but the extent of any damage to crops is yet not known. Paddy production has also been affected by below normal availability of essential inputs like fertilizers, pesticides and seeds. As a result of dry conditions and below normal availability of inputs, area under rice this year fell by some 10 percent, to 1.95 million hectares. Paddy production is provisionally forecast at 3 million tons compared to 3.4 million tons last year. Since late September rice prices have registered an increase.
Official reports indicate that northern parts of the country continue to be affected by a serious drought, which has already seriously reduced maize production this year. Drought conditions are expected to continue into next spring. It is officially estimated that some 33 million hectares have been affected in these parts of the country. About 4.5 million hectares of this are not expected to yield any output and to remain unsuitable for further planting this year.
The revised estimate of maize production is now put at 105 million tons, some 10 million tons lower than earlier forecast. This is about 18 percent lower than last year and 2 percent below the average of the preceding five years. Aggregate grain output, including tubers and roots, is officially forecast to be between 482 million to 499 million tons this year, compared to over 504 million tons in 1996.
Overall, the food supply situation is favourable with satisfactory stock levels in the country, following a bumper crop harvest last year and a large winter wheat crop this year.
Sowing of the 1998 wheat and barley crops is underway. Production of cereals, mainly barley is estimated at 40 000 tons, some 72 percent less than last year. In view of the fact that cereal production normally accounts for less than one-third of total domestic requirements, imports are expected to rise slightly so as to meet the needs of the growing population.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (May/April) are forecast at 90 000 tons, unchanged from last year. Aggregate imports of barley and maize are forecast at some 420 000 tons, about 2 percent higher than last year.
Heavy rain slowed the kharif rice harvest in extreme southern parts of the country, which may lead to some losses. Conditions are reported to be mostly favourable for planting of the rabi rice crop to be harvested in April/May next year. In spite of the possibility of weather anomalies emerging this year due to El Niño, the country reported a normal monsoon for the tenth year in succession. Official estimates put cumulative rainfall for the period June to September this year at 102 percent of the long term average.
Kharif, winter, rice output is expected to reach 73.1 million tons this year, some 2 percent up on 1996. Most of the increase is expected from northern states of Haryana and Punjab where record production of 8 million tons and 2.5 million tons respectively is anticipated, compared to 7.4 and 2.4 million tons respectively last year. Increase in these states to offset decrease in Andhra Pradesh, which was affected by poor rainfall this year. Aggregate rice production for 1997/98, including kharif and rabi, is forecast at a bumper 81.5 million tons, some 500 000 tons larger than last year . National procurement of rice is projected to be somewhat higher than last year, despite some fall back in supplies from Andra Pradesh. In contrast to previous years, prices continued to remain low in September due to adequate availability of wheat in the open market,.
According to recent estimates, foodgrain stocks, with the Food Corporation of India (FCI), fell to 16.51 million tons at the beginning of September 1997 from 17.82 million tons a month earlier, and 22.24 million tons in the same period last year. Current stocks comprised 7.69 million tons of rice and 8.82 million tons of wheat.
The delay in monsoon rains in the country is being attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon, the strongest this century. The country is in the midst of its most serious drought in decades and rainfall is urgently needed not only for crops but also to extinguish extensive bush and forest fires, which have been exacerbated by this year’s drought. According to some forecasts rains may not come before January next year, with drought conditions possibly persisting up to March. To some extent, the negative impact on production was limited by the fact that rainfall earlier in the year, which did not stop until May-June, favoured the main crop harvested in February-March and also the second crop harvested in July-August. These two crops account for some 80 percent of the country’s production of rice. However the third crop was seriously reduced and unconfirmed reports indicate that about 79 000 hectares were completely lost, whilst yields in other areas were below normal depending on the availability of irrigation. Current official projections put aggregate production at 49.1 million tons of paddy or 31.85 million tons of milled rice in 1997. At this level of production, output would be some 4 percent below last year and 2 percent below the average of the preceding five years. Nevertheless, as this projection had assumed reasonable conditions in the period September to December, the continued lack of rain in September and October suggests that production may be lower still.
There is particular concern regarding the food supply situation in large areas of central Irian Jaya which continue to be severely affected by the drought and serious food shortages. In these areas, it is estimated that, even if rainfall were to begin soon, current food stocks would be near depletion before the next harvest. Reports suggest that the impact of the drought and food shortages is most acute in the remote interior district of Jayawijaya which has a total population of 450 000. Here, the population is almost wholly dependent on the sweet potato crop. Some 90 000 people are considered most at risk to severe food shortages in Jayawijaya district alone.
The Government response to the drought is coordinated by the National Coordinating Board for Disaster Management (BAKORNAS PB), which is providing rice and fuel for transport and has mobilized the army to transport relief goods. A drought response plan has been prepared to cover an 8 month period from October 1997 to May 1998.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (17 November)
Official reports forecast maize production at 900 000 tons, some 200 000 tons above last year. Annual domestic maize consumption at is estimated at around 2.5 million tons and about 1.1 million tons were imported last year. The country is expected to remain a major importer of wheat in the 1997/98 marketing year. However, recent reports from the country indicate that growing imports are partly attributed to unofficial re-export to neighbouring countries and for use in animal feed.
Land preparation and planting of winter crop should have started. However, the prospects for the 1998 crop are uncertain. As last year, production is likely to be constrained by serious shortages of spare parts for agricultural machinery, fertilizers, quality seeds, agrochemicals, vaccines and the widespread incidence of pests, weeds and animal diseases.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited Iraq last June/July found that although there has been some improvement in the overall food supply situation following the implementation of Security Council Resolution 986, malnutrition still remains a serious problem throughout Iraq. Although food rations under SCR 986 will provide a significant proportion of overall energy and protein needs, the provisions are low or deficient in a number of other nutrients, particularly Vitamins A and C, calcium, zinc, riboflavin and Vitamin B6. Special attention should therefore be given to actions designed to stimulate the production of animal products, fruits and vegetables, as well to ensure the continuation of an adequate economic incentive for producers of the foods provided under SCR 986. In light of this, the allocation of U.S.$ 94 million for imports of badly needed agricultural inputs in 1997, were considered by the Mission to be grossly inadequate in comparison to rehabilitation and investment needs in the sector. In this regard, it is important to note that the present allocation of U.S.$ 94 million is a mere 20 percent of the U.S.$ 500 million estimated by the 1991 Mission led by the Executive Delegate of the Secretary-General for the 1991/92 cropping season.
Production of main cereals in 1997 was estimated at 2.2 million tons, the lowest since 1991. Crop yields remain low due to poor land preparation resulting from a lack of machinery, low use of inputs, deteriorating soil quality and irrigation facilities, and increased crop infestation.
On 4 December 1997 the Security Council (SCR 1143) renewed the oil-for-food agreement for a third six-month phase on similar terms to the second phase. A possible increase in the amount of oil Iraq is allowed to sell over the six-month period will be considered on the basis of the Secretary-General’s report on Iraq’s humanitarian needs, which is due by the end of January 1998. The SCR 1143 also allows Iraq to continue to buy food, medicine and health supplies until 5 January 1998, pending approval by the Secretary-General of an acceptable Distribution Plan.
Planting of the 1998 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested during April/May next year, is underway. Given normal weather conditions, production in 1998 could be close to last year’s level. Production of wheat in 1997, is estimated at 147 000 tons.
Imports of cereals in 1997/98 (October/September) are forecast at some 2.8 million tons. Purchase of imported wheat by domestic flour millers is linked to the domestic wheat procurement at a higher price than that prevailing in the world market.
Japan is the largest importer of agricultural products in the world with total agricultural, seafood and forest product imports reaching $69.5 billion in 1996. To cut rice production and reduce large stocks in the country, following bumper harvests since 1994 and weak domestic rice consumption, various plans are being considered. These include Government schemes to provide incentives to farmers to reduce land area under production. Currently about 30 percent of rice farmland in Japan is set aside and kept out of production. Official estimates indicate that rice stocks were around 3.7 million tons at the end of October, up by 40 percent compared to last year. This year’s harvest of around 13 million tons would further increase stocks to about 4.5 million tons by the end of October next year.
Sowing of the 1998 wheat and barley crops is underway and better harvests than last year can be expected provided growing conditions prove to be satisfactory. Weather conditions were unfavourable in the 1996/97 season. Consequently, aggregate output of wheat and barley declined by 18 percent in 1997 to 55 000 tons. Domestic cereal production normally meets about 10 percent of consumption requirements with the balance to be covered by imports, mostly on commercial terms.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 630 000 tons and that of rice at 90 000 tons. Coarse grains imports in 1997/98 are forecast at 910 000 tons.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (22 November)
Official reports indicate that the country harvested a bumper rice crop for the second consecutive year, in which production is estimated at 5.35 million tons. At this level, output is the highest in six years, some 28 000 tons higher than last year’s good crop and around 6 percent above average for the preceding five years. Production is also around 10 percent higher than the official target for the year. This year’s good production is attributed to favourable weather and government efforts to encourage land under production.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (17 November)
Since 1995 Korea DPR has suffered a number of natural disasters which have seriously impeded the capacity of the country to feed its people. In the aftermath of floods in 1996, the country received an unprecedented amount of food assistance through the international community without which undoubtedly the emergence of nutritional and health problems would have been far more widespread within the population. Notwithstanding the importance of such food assistance as a short term measure it is vital that the country address means by which future, and sustainable, food security can be more assured. In this regard the performance of the economy and it’s ability to generate productive employment and vital foreign exchange for purchase of essential inputs and raw materials, for agriculture and food imports in shortfall years, will be essential to any lasting strategy.
Following an interim assessment of this year’s drought in August, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Korea DPR from 21 October to 4 November to assess this year’s harvest and evaluate food supply prospects for the 1997/98 marketing year. In making its assessment the mission held discussions with key Government departments, UN agencies and NGOs and made field assessment visits to main agricultural areas, including north and south Hwangae Province, south Pyongan Province and Kangwon Province. In addition, to assess food distribution and supply the mission made a number of visits, some random, to individual households in urban and rural areas, grain stores and public distribution outlets and schools and nurseries.
The mission found that the negative effect of this year’s prolonged drought resulted largely in a significant decrease in maize production, one of two main cereals in the country. Although output of rainfed maize, which constitutes most of the area under the crop, was severely reduced, reasonable production was still possible in areas with variable degrees of irrigation. The overall output of maize is estimated at around 1.14 million tons, over 50 percent lower than may have been expected under favourable weather conditions this year. The significant drop in maize production is consistent with sizeable reductions in output in main producing areas in north eastern China, which were similarly affected by the drought this year. The adverse affect of the drought on rice, however, was much less pronounced as the crop is largely irrigated. Although the level of irrigation from some reservoirs, mainly those that are rainfed, was markedly reduced the overall affect this had on the crop was not as severe as had been anticipated by the earlier mission in August. Moreover, paddy yields in areas with assured irrigation were assessed to be higher than expected under present input constraints. This phenomenon is attributed to various factors including improved fertilizer efficiency and greater use of labour. Rice in coastal areas was also affected to some extent by the incursion of tidal waves following typhoon Winnie in late August. However in making the final assessment of the harvest this year losses due to the typhoon were not considered to be as high as had been earlier anticipated. Milled rice production in 1997, taking into account losses, is estimated at approximately 1.52 million tons which together with maize brings aggregate production of these cereals to 2.66 million tons in milled rice equivalent or 3.48 million tons in paddy equivalent. The domestic supply of grains this year, therefore, will again be far short of needs for the third year in succession and once more the country will be looking at substantial food assistance to meet demand.
Grain supply constraints in recent years have necessitated major revisions in utilization as part of a coping strategy. Most significant of this has been the reduction in grain use for animal feed and indeed the number of animals itself. Obviously such reduction will have long term consequences as the availability of protein in the diet will fall far below levels considered desirable. Taking into account reduced utilization, though maintaining a minimum stipulation for food use, the import requirement of cereals for 1997/98 will be around 1.95 million tons. Of this it is estimated that commercial imports, including informal cross border trade with China will account for 700 000 tons, whilst pledged food assistance in the pipeline will bring in a further 231 000 tons. The uncovered import deficit with which the country needs food assistance, including programme food aid, amounts to about a million tons.
In assessing the overall issues of food supply and food assistance to the country, the mission has the following observations. The fact that the incidence of chronic malnutrition has not become more widespread is largely attributed to the unprecedented levels of food assistance the country has received in the past two years. Without such assistance there is little doubt that problems would have been more entrenched, especially amongst vulnerable groups like children. The mission notes its disappointment, however, that no acceptable quantitative evidence regarding the present extent of malnutrition in the country has been possible despite a UN nutrition assessment earlier this year. In the interest of transparency, it is vital that a more meaningful study is undertaken. This is especially important as there is growing recognition amongst various humanitarian agencies working in the country that nutritional problems, and related symptoms such as stunting, are as much a result of endemic problems of food supply and health over several (pre emergency) years as in the extreme food shortages of the past few years. There is also mounting evidence that much greater polarity in food consumption exists in the population, than perceived hitherto. Reasons why this is occurring include transport difficulties, geographical differences, where some provinces are better equipped to deal with shortages than others, greater access amongst rural communities than urban and differential access to assets and foreign remittances and the corresponding ability to purchase food from emerging, though relatively insignificant, ‘private’ markets.
Unconfirmed reports indicate widespread flooding recently, may have caused serious damage to the rice crop to be harvested this month. This may exacerbate ongoing food supply problems in the country. Following serious flooding in the 1996 season which significantly affected rice production in major rice producing areas in the lowlands of Central and Southern Region, an emergency operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in March this year, to raise 30 240 tons of rice for flood victims. In addition, donors provided cash to purchase some 15 000 tons.
The planting of wheat and barley is underway. However, domestic cereal production usually covers only about 10 percent of the consumption requirements. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 1997 is estimated at 63 000 tons, marginally down by 1 percent from last year’s output.
Lebanon is planning to cut food imports by 10 percent. Imports of over 150 agricultural and food items are reported to be banned as a way to protect domestic agriculture from imports of items that could be produced in the country and boost local production. The banned products are mainly fresh fruits and vegetables, flowers and animal products.
Imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.53 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestinian refugees has recently issued a special emergency appeal for U.S.$ 11 million to meet the urgent needs of 350 000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
Planting of the main rainfed paddy crop, for harvest in December- January, is compete as is the harvesting of the irrigated second rice crop, which normally accounts for some 45 percent of annual production. Paddy production this year is estimated at around 2.1 million tons, around average and similar to last year.
In recent years, the agricultural sector has been seriously and adversely affected by the transition of the country from a centrally planned to a market economy and by the withdrawal of substantial technical and economic assistance from the former U.S.S.R. Prior to these economic shocks, the country produced sufficient cereals, principally wheat, not only to satisfy domestic demand but also for export. Since 1990, however, the area harvested and yields have declined dramatically. In 1996 grain production was some 70 percent lower than pre-1990 levels. The decline is largely attributed to the break-up and sell-off of state farms to farm companies under the economic reform programme, high indebtedness, reduced access to credit, high interest rates, a critical shortage of inputs and operational farm machinery and poor husbandry practices.
In consequence, the country now faces a serious food deficit and only produces some 60 percent of its estimated cereal needs. As a result, although the country is not facing an emergency of a scale which may result in widespread famine, it does, like other transitional economies, have a growing population of vulnerable, low income people who have been experiencing a dramatic fall in nutritional standards due to a major deterioration in their economic circumstance.
To determine the extent of this year’s deficit an FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, funded by UNDP, visited Mongolia in October to assess wheat production and evaluate the food supply situation for the 1997/98 marketing year. The evaluation is based on discussions with Government, UN, international development agencies, NGOs and crop assessment visits to main agricultural areas.
The Mission forecasts the production of wheat in 1997 at 282 000 tons, some 28 percent above output in 1996. Despite the increase this year, however, production remains only 40 percent of the level in 1990. Moreover, the increase this year compared to last is mainly attributed to improved rainfall in main producing areas rather than generalized improvements in the sector, such as better input supply. Indeed, the provision of credit and agricultural inputs remains a major problem which will have to be addressed if food production is to be restored in future. The agriculture sector urgently needs large scale investments in machinery, chemicals, input supply and marketing channels and training and research programmes. Without such interventions, for the majority of farm companies and the country as a whole, the future of grain production looks bleak.
The livestock sector contributes 88 percent to gross agricultural production. In common with other areas in the economy, the livestock sector has also been subject to radical reforms and the break-up of large state enterprises into smaller units. During its transition phase, there has been a sharp decline in budgetary and service support to the sector. As a result, infrastructure such as wells have broken down, veterinary and other services have been cut back, fodder production has decreased, marketing systems are underdeveloped and investment capital is unavailable or unaffordable to most herders. As the terms of trade turn against livestock, there is growing pressure to increase the number of animals per unit to make it viable. This has created many vulnerable households, whose capacity to absorb economic shocks has already been compromised.
Economic reforms have affected households in a number of negative ways including a significant increase in poverty, loss of employment, reduction in consumption, cuts in safety nets and social sector services. Amongst vulnerable groups of most concern are those that have least access to financial resources for the purchase of food, especially in a situation where purchasing power has been significantly eroded by high inflation. These groups include the unemployed, the elderly, female headed households, children, pensioners and small herders. Without additional assistance these groups, especially a growing population of abandoned “street” children, will face great hardship in the years ahead as their ability to counter food supply problems remains highly constrained. Moreover, as real incomes have fallen households have been forced to cut back on non-food items, leading to substantial welfare costs and increase in expenditure on cheaper and less nutritious food. Recent survey results suggest that the sharp rise in chronic under-nutrition in children to around 25 percent is a direct result of the adjustment made in consumption by households to adapt to a tightening food supply situation. Furthermore, with a substantial fall in the relative price of livestock to other food commodities, strongly negative terms of trade have developed against herders making the earning of their livelihood increasingly precarious.
Economic slow-down and a trade deficit in 1996 further constrained the country’s capacity to import both sufficient quantities of grain to meet needs and essential agricultural inputs to maintain productivity. The Mission estimates an overall cereal requirement for the 1997/98 marketing year of 178 000 tons comprising 175 000 tons of wheat and 3 000 tons of rice. Commercial imports are expected to cover the rice requirement, and, based on cereal imports last year, some 85 000 tons of wheat equivalent. This leaves a deficit of 90 000 tons, for which the country needs emergency and programme food assistance. The Mission recommends that for the most vulnerable sectors of society, the absolute poor who constitute some 6 percent of the population, 23 000 tons of emergency food aid be provided. The remaining 67 000 tons of the deficit should be covered by programme food aid. Both categories of food assistance can be handled by the National Poverty Alleviation Programme.
Serious and recurring flooding this year affected the rice crop in various parts of the country, principally in eastern Bago and central Irrawaddy. Lower yields and production of wet season paddy, which accounts for roughly 85 percent of the total annual rice crop, are expected. Overall, it is officially estimated that some 0.8 million hectares in all eleven states and divisions in the country were damaged, with approximately 298 000 hectares totally destroyed. In spite of the flood damage, aggregate paddy production this year is projected at some 17 million tons similar to the previous year and around average.
It is estimated that the area planted to paddy this year increased by some 4 percent and by some 6 percent from the average for the preceding five years. Despite the increase in area, however, rice production this year is forecast to be below the 2.8 million tons harvested in 1996.
Current estimates indicate that the country is likely to produce around 4.3 million tons of milled rice in 1997/98, some 15 percent above average for the preceding five years and marginally higher than 1995/96. The increase in production is due to a small increase in area under cultivation and higher yields.
In an attempt to stimulate the agriculture sector the Government recently announced a comprehensive package of incentives. This includes increases in support prices for various crops, relief in the prices for key agricultural inputs, improved availability of agricultural credit, better irrigation and drainage facilities and better quality control of fertilizers and pesticides. These steps are expected to lower food imports.
Rice exports this year are projected to rise as supplies from the new basmati crop increase prompted by stronger international demand. Following Government agreement to supply wheat to Afghanistan ,it is estimated that some 500 000 tons will be exported from the country in 1997/98. The agreement makes provision for the export of up to 50 000 tons of wheat per month over the coming year.
Recent reports indicate that up to 36 provinces are considered highly vulnerable to El Niño related weather anomalies, particularly prolonged drought, which are forecast to last till next April. Provinces considered particularly vulnerable include South Cotabato, Miasmic Oriental and parts of Zamboanga del Sur in Mindanao. As a result of forecast drought, rice and maize production are expected to drop in the first quarter of 1998. Current official projections point to a drop in the output of unmilled rice by 1.7 percent to 2.52 million tons in the first quarter of 1998 (January to March) compared to 2.56 million tons this year. Similarly, maize production is expected to fall to 1.021 million tons in the first quarter from 1.023 this year. Paddy output in the third quarter this year dropped by 15.4 percent to 1.79 million tons from 2.117 million tons in 1996. Overall maize output this year is expected to increase marginally to around 4.3 million tons, while the official estimate of paddy is put at 11.36 million tons compared to an earlier forecast of 11.9 million tons.
The Department of Agriculture has been distributing higher yielding rice seeds and fertilizers to farmers in recent months as part of its programme to improve productivity, which aims to increase rice production to 12 to 12.5 million tons in 1998
Imports of rice and maize in 1998 are likely to increase due to expected weather-related declines in production and continued growth in population and consumption. The National Food Authority (NFA) has already placed orders for 350 000 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Thailand . Imports are expected to start arriving in January. The NFA also has authority to import up to 650 000 tons of rice to maintain stocks. In 1996 the NFA imported 893 000 tons of rice. So far this year, the country has imported 940 000 tons of maize, mostly for animal feed, compared to 407 000 tons in 1996.
The wheat crop for harvest in April/May next year is now being planted. To the extent weather conditions are normal, no serious damage from outbreaks of pests and disease, and the government’s intention materializes, a large crop can be expected.
Low to moderate numbers of adults desert locusts are likely to be present on the coastal plains of the Red Sea from Jezan to Wejh where they are expected to lay in areas of recent rainfall. Consequently, there is a risk that locust numbers will significantly increase since breeding this year is likely to occur earlier than in previous years, allowing for several generations if rains continue in the coming months.
A policy aimed at encouraging barley production in the country is being pursued by the government. The five-year development plan targets a cut in water usage, particularly in agriculture, which consumes about 90 percent of all water used in the country. Wheat output in 1997 is estimated at 1.5 million tons, some 25 percent higher than last year; the barley harvest is estimated at around 450 000 tons, similar to the 1996 crop.
Imports of barley in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 5.6 million tons. Barley consumption in the next few years is expected to increase significantly as poultry, dairy and sheep breeding and fattening projects continue to expand. The government has announced a measure to limit vegetable imports as a means of protecting farm products and livestock from imports.
Rainfall this year from the north east monsoon, the country’s main rainy season, has been generally favourable. In the period 1 October to 4 November , cumulative rainfall was normal or above-normal in seven out of eight provinces monitored, accounting for 83 percent of ‘Maha’ paddy production, the country’s main rice crop. In comparison, in the same period last year, cumulative rainfall was normal or above normal in five out of eight provinces covering 72 percent of production.
The recent increase in the administered price of flour in August has reduced the consumption of flour marginally to about 11 000- 11 500 tons from 12 000 tons per week. However, tight supplies of rice, expected particularly during the period of October to February may prompt some upturn in demand.
Good rainfall in September and recent light showers prompted early planting of winter grains. Sowing of the 1998 wheat and barley will continue until mid-January next year. Cereals production in 1997 is estimated at 5 million tons, about 16 percent lower than last year. As a result of unfavourable weather, especially winter frost, wheat output dropped to 3.5 million tons, whilst the output of barley dropped by 35 percent to 1.3 million tons. Maize output is estimated at about 300 000 tons, some 45 percent higher than in the previous year.
Imports of wheat flour in 1997/98 are forecast at some 100 000 tons, whilst maize imports are forecast at 160 000 tons.
Official reports indicate that El Niño weather related problems are expected to significantly reduce production of major cash crops, especially rice and sugar, over the next eight months. The reports indicate that approximately 1.12 million hectares of crops have already been damaged by reduced rainfall in various parts of the country, whilst the water level in many dams has run low, causing concern for dry season cultivation. To reduce the possible impact of drought and dry weather, plans are being considered to encourage farmers to cultivate other crops, such as maize, soybean or cassava, than rice in second season as they are lower water demanding. An estimated 36 provinces have been affected, mostly in the north and the northeast. As a result of falling production, the 1998 second rice crop is expected to yield around 2.8 million tons compared with 4.55 million tons this year. In September the official estimate of the main rice crop was revised to 17.84 million tons from 18.18 million tons earlier. Conditions are expected to deteriorate into March and April next year, with continuing rainfall shortages
The country is expected to reach its export target for 1997. In the first 10 months this year, 4.08 million tons were exported. Although the volume of exports fell by around 6.6 percent revenues grew by 3.6 percent. Higher exports are partly due to increased demand by importing countries in preparation for anticipated food shortages due to El Niño.
Sowing of the 1998 wheat crop is nearing completion. Given satisfactory weather conditions, production similar to that of 1997 could be achieved. The 1997 wheat production is estimated at 18.7 million tons, 1 percent higher than in 1996. Output from the barley crop which is estimated at 8.2 million tons is 3 percent higher than in previous year. Maize production is estimated at 2 million tons, the same as in the previous year.
Turkey’s state grain board (TMO) which has some 810 000 tons of durum wheat and about 1.5 million tons of barley in its stock, bought from farmers in 1996/97 a record 5.8 million tons compared to 1 million tons a year earlier. TMO plans to sell some 200 000 tons of feed barley and 50 000 tons of durum wheat to international buyers, and another 50 000 tons to local market.
Wheat imports in 1997/98 are forecast at about 1.7 million tons, similar to last year. The 1997/98 corn imports are forecast at 600 000 tons.
In the first week of November, Typhoon Linda killed at least 285 people as it struck southern parts of the country, whilst a further 3 600 are still missing. Most of the dead or missing were fishermen or people living along the coast. An estimated 453 000 hectares of rice was damaged by flooding, much of which had been planted for winter-spring harvest. However, as planting had only just been completed before the typhoon, most areas will be replanted. The Government has launched an international appeal emergency food, medicine, clothing, shelter and sanitation for the homeless. So far United Nations agencies have made preliminary pledges of $255 000, whilst other donors have committed a further $690 000. Economic damage is estimated at $472 million.
Overall this year, official reports indicate that rice production is expected to increase by 1.3 million tons to 27.7 million this year compared to 1996.
In spite of typhoon damage, rice exports are unlikely to be affected by heavy flooding in Mekong Delta provinces as output from the current, minor crop is mainly for the domestic market. The main crops are in summer autumn and winter spring. The export target for 1997 is 3.7 million tons for this year, though an estimated 3.5 million are expected to be exported due to low stocks and strong competition.
The harvesting of the 1997 sorghum crop is now underway and both the 1998 wheat and sorghum crops will not be planted until next year. A few isolated immature adults of desert locusts were seen on the coastal plains near Aden on 29 September. Low to moderate numbers of adults are likely to be present on the Tihama and to a lesser extent on the Aden coastal plains where they are expected to lay in areas of recent rainfall. Consequently, there is a risk that locust numbers will significantly increase since breading this year is likely to occur earlier than in previous years, allowing for several generations if rains continue in the coming months.
Aggregate output of sorghum and millet in 1997 is estimated at 0.53 million tons, some 29 percent higher than in previous year. The increase reflects favourable growing conditions in most of areas. Wheat production in 1997 estimated at 165 000 tons, was 11 percent higher than last year.
Imports of cereals in 1997 - mainly wheat - are estimated at some 2 million tons.