Good rains in October prompted early planting of winter grain along the coastal areas in the Northeast. Sowing of the 1998 wheat and barley crops will continue until mid-January next year, but the bulk is usually planted in November/December.
Isolated adult desert locusts were observed during October in the extreme south near the Niger. Scattered adults are likely to be present in few places in central and southern Sahara. These may breed in areas of recent rainfall.
Following unfavourable weather conditions, production of cereals in 1997 dropped to a 20-year low of about 1.08 million tons from a record 4.6 million tons in 1996. Wheat output in 1997 is estimated at 750 000 tons, about 73 percent lower than in the previous year. The production of barley is estimated at 300 000 tons compared to 1.7 million tons last year.
Cereal imports in 1997/98 (July/June) are estimated to rise to about 5.5 million tons reflecting the drop in 1997 domestic production.
Planting of the mainly irrigated wheat crop, to be harvested from mid-April 1998, is underway. The official agricultural plan aims at adding new land for agriculture to be planted with improved varieties of wheat, rice and maize. Isolated mature adults of desert locusts were present at several locations near the Nile River Valley south of Aswan and on the coastal plains near Halaib and Wadi Diib at the end of September. Breeding is expected to occur in the south-east along the coastal plains and sub-coastal wadis which could lead to the formation of hopper groups and small bands. There is a risk that locust numbers could increase significantly since breeding this year is expected to occur earlier than in previous years.
Production of wheat in 1996/97 declined by some 4 percent to about 5.5 million tons, due to lower yields as a result of strong dust storms and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The output of maize in 1996/97 is estimated at 5.4 million tons.
Imports of wheat and wheat flour in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 7 million tons, whereas coarse grains imports are forecast at 3.2 million tons.
Following dry conditions in October, above-normal rains in November allowed widespread planting of 1997/98 crop in northern parts of the country. In southern areas, light to moderate rainfall in November provided sufficient topsoil moisture for land preparation and planting of winter crops. The emergence and establishment of early planted crops is reported to be satisfactory. The planting of winter crops will continue until December.
Isolated solitary adult desert locusts may appear in the extreme south-west during periods of warm southerly winds.
Following unfavourable growing conditions, production of cereals in 1997, mainly wheat and barley, estimated at 4 million tons, was 60 percent lower than in 1996. As a result, imports of wheat in 1997/98 (July/June) are forecast at 2.4 million tons, up from 1.1 million tons in 1996/97.
Widespread light to moderate rainfall was received in October and provided sufficient moisture for land preparation and may have prompted some early planting of the winter grain. Light rains with excess in some localized areas continued in November, maintaining enough topsoil moisture for winter grain emergence and establishment. Sowing of the 1998 wheat and barley crops continues until mid-January, but most of the crop is usually planted from mid-November to mid-December.
Production of cereals in 1997, estimated at 1.1 million tons, was drastically reduced by shortage of rainfall which halved the total area sown to cereals last season. Only about 1 million hectares, representing half of the cropped land was sown, due to severe drought.
Imports of wheat and barley in 1997/98 are forecast at 1.2 million tons and 300 000 tons respectively.