BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (1 February)

The area sown to the 1998 winter grains (wheat) has declined sharply. In BiH, only 60 percent of the area to be planted to winter crops had been sown by mid November; even with favourable conditions plantings are expected to remain about 10 percent below target (71 000 hectares). In the Republika Srpska the area also fell. In 1997 the area sown to wheat area fell by about 15 percent while, by contrast, both the area sown and average yields of maize and potatoes increased sharply. This is mainly due to ample availability of imported wheat and flour in the market and the poor profitability of wheat vis-à-vis other crops, notably maize and potatoes, which are also easier to grow by smallholders experiencing shortages of machinery and working capital. Wheat remains an important staple but in view of the gradual but steady improvement in the agricultural situation and in particular the increase in the output of potatoes, the dependence on this commodity is diminishing gradually. In 1997/98 the aggregate cereal import requirement is now tentatively estimated at around 275 000 tonnes, mostly for the BiH Federation. In the Republika Srpska, the wheat harvest is reported to be adequate to cover human consumption needs. The World Food Programme is expected to provide 60 000 tonnes of food aid in Bosnia & Herzegovina in 1998, for which the outstanding needs are 19 000 tonnes. Most of this food will be used in targeted distributions, providing monthly rations to some 600 000 vulnerable people currently, though the target population is expected to decrease to some 200 000 by the end of 1998. Some 6 700 tonnes of food will be utilized for a variety of small-scale income-generating rehabilitation activities in an effort to help people in the transition from dependence back to self-sufficiency.