The overall outlook for the rabi grains (mainly wheat), to be harvested in April/May 1998, remains favourable. For the 1997/98 rabi season starting 1 October 1997, cumulative rainfall as of 28 January 1998 was below normal in 10 (out of 35) sub-divisions, accounting for 9 percent of the rabi grain production. This compares with 11 sub-divisions accounting for 58 percent of rabi grain production with below-normal rainfall at the same time in 1996/97.
Despite heavy rains late last year which slowed the kharif rice harvest in southern parts of the country, paddy production is forecast at 110 million tonnes, some 2 percent up on the previous year. Accordingly, the estimate for aggregate paddy output for 1997/98, including Kharif and Rabi, has been raised by 1.2 million tonnes, from the previous forecast to 123 million tonnes. Most parts of the country received timely and adequate monsoon rains for the tenth consecutive year.
According to latest official reports, the Government wheat stocks as of beginning-November 1997, were estimated at 8.03 million tonnes compared to 9.72 million tonnes a year earlier. The total foodgrains stocks for the same period, on the other hand, were 18.27 million tonnes, against 15.34 million in the previous month and 21.32 million a year earlier.