Early indications are that the area sown to winter grains (mainly wheat) for harvest in 1998 could remain near last year’s level, as crops other than wheat (e.g. tobacco) become more remunerative. In an effort to achieve greater domestic self sufficiency, the wheat area has doubled in recent years to reach 553 000 hectares. As a result the 1997 grain harvest is officially estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, 21 percent more than last year and above target. Output of wheat is put at 1.4 million tonnes and the country has an exportable surplus of up to 300 000 tonnes of wheat. At the same time, the country also imports wheat for the grain deficit areas in the south-west, partly as a result of the mountainous terrain and poorly developed domestic transport and marketing infrastructure.
In 1997/98 the domestic cereal utilization is estimated at 1.7 million tonnes including 0.7 million tonnes for human consumption, 0.7 million tonnes for feed and the balance for other uses, mainly seed. Imports are estimated at 120 000 tonnes, and include 83 000 tonnes of food aid already pledged to assist Tajik refugees and other vulnerable people in the country.