An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in the second half of January, found that a one month delay in the onset of rains limited an otherwise significant expansion of cultivated area, while the ensuing excessive precipitation resulted in flooding in the valley marshlands, affecting 10 percent of the cultivated area and limiting yields of some crops. Among the negative effects of the abundant rains and related humid conditions were fungal diseases, excessive weed growth and reduced sun exposure. Particularly affected were the yields of beans (root diseases, black fly) and potatoes (mildew). A continuation of the unseasonable rains could bring yields further down. Lack of quality seeds and cuttings also had a yield-depressing effect in many areas. In general, yields of sorghum, wheat, beans, Irish potatoes and sweet potatoes are estimated to have declined in comparison to last year�s season A. On the other hand, yield improvements were observed for bananas, maize, rice, peas, groundnuts, soya, taro, yams and cassava. Total food crop production in the 1998 A season is estimated at 2 194 227 tonnes, an increase of seven percent over 1997 A. This includes about 77 400 tonnes of cereals (some 18 percent less than 1997 A), some 110 000 tonnes of pulses (an increase of seven percent over 1997 A, mainly as a result of significantly increased plantings), 1.4 million tonnes of bananas (+25 percent) and some 656 000 tonnes of roots and tubers, about the same as in last year�s season A.
Compared to the average of 1989-93 A, this season�s production is just five percent below pre-crisis levels. All in all, Rwanda�s food crop production is on the way to recovery. Yet, two caveats are in order. First, there are now more Rwandans who have to feed themselves than before the civil strife; on a per caput basis, current production is only some 80 percent of pre-war levels, implying that substantial food deficits persist. And second, if the unseasonable rains persist beyond the time of the Mission, production estimates will have to be revised downwards.
Reflecting the insufficient production, food prices continue to rise, aggravating the already precarious food security situation of a large number of households. The Mission forecasts food aid requirements of 82 000 tonnes of cereal equivalent for the first semester of 1998; of this, some 70 000 tonnes have already been pledged, while 12 000 tonnes will remain uncovered due to insecurity in western areas and current land transport difficulties in the region.
There is an urgent need to overcome input supply bottlenecks, especially for seeds and cuttings, on a sustained basis; this is a top priority for the coming season but must also be addressed within a longer-term framework.