FAO/GIEWS - FOODCROPS AND SHORTAGES No.2, May 1998.

CENTRAL AMERICA (including the Caribbean)

BELIZE (12 April)

Drier than normal weather has been registered in March and in the first half of April but with no adverse effect so far reported to planting of the 1998/99 maize and paddy crops which has only started. COSTA RICA (2 April)

Planting of the 1998/99 first season cereal crops should start from April. Prospects are uncertain as the country continues to be affected by the combination of abnormally dry weather and high temperatures caused by El Ni�o phenomenon. Intended plantings of paddy, the main cereal, are tentatively forecast to be similar to last year�s below-average level unless normal rains resume. About 100 000 tonnes of rice are expected to be imported during the period February/June 1998 to help compensate for the shortage in domestic supplies.

CUBA (17 April) UNF

El Ni�o-induced serious heavy rain and flooding since mid- March have disrupted harvesting of the important foreign exchange earner sugar cane crop in the eastern and western parts of the country. The rains have caused serious damage to all crops. Yields of the sugar cane crop in particular are likely to decline. Latest official forecasts indicate that the 1997/98 output could fall as low as 3.3 million tonnes, which compares to 4.25 million tonnes produced in 1996/97 and the historic low 3.3 million tonnes gathered in 1994/95. Harvesting of the 1998 rainfed (winter) paddy crop, the main cereal, has also been disrupted because of the rains. Early forecasts indicate that production should decline from 1997 average level, and that about 400 000 tonnes of rice imports will be required in 1998 (January/December) to meet consumption demand for this important staple in the population�s diet.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (2 April)

Heavy rains prevail in some parts of the country while precipitation shortfall is reported in others, but with no adverse effect on the 1998 cereal crops currently being planted. The intended area planted to maize should be about average, a recovery from last year�s drought affected crop. Plantings of the irrigated paddy crop are forecast to be above average. Maize imports in 1998 (January/December) should be close to 1997 receipts, while imports of rice are forecast to increase from about 40 000 tonnes to some 50 000 tonnes, reflecting government measures to avoid stockpiling and price speculations in case of any eventual crop damage to this important staple in the population�s diet.

EL SALVADOR (2 April) FS

Abnormally dry weather and high temperatures related to El Ni�o continue to prevail in the country, particularly in the Pacific coastal areas and inland valleys, with an increasing risk for forest fires. The outlook is uncertain for planting of the 1998/99 first season cereal crops to be started from May. Latest weather forecasts indicate that the rainy season could be delayed, as drier and warmer than normal conditions are expected to continue possibly through May. Preventive measures have been consequently taken by the government. Plantings, in particular for maize, are nevertheless expected to increase from last year�s when the crops were severely affected by El Ni�o�s early manifestations. Food assistance is being provided to the affected population by the international community. Maize imports in marketing year 1997/98 (August/July) should be about 330 000 tonnes compared to some 190 000 tonnes in the previous year.

GUATEMALA (2 April) FS

The country is still being affected by unusually high temperatures and dry weather associated with El Ni�o, which may delay planting of the 1998/99 first season cereal crops from April. Plantings are intended to increase from last year in an effort to recover from the severe losses incurred to the maize crop in particular. Food assistance is being provided to the affected rural population. Imports of maize in marketing year 1997/98 are expected to be about 610 000 tonnes compared to some 390 000 tonnes in the preceding year.

HAITI* (2 April) FS

Planting of the 1998 first season maize crop is underway while planting of the irrigated paddy crop is about to be completed under generally normal weather conditions. Average maize and paddy plantings are tentatively anticipated and, assuming normal conditions remain, a recovery in production is expected from last year when the crops were severely affected by long months of drought associated with El Ni�o. Food assistance is still being provided by the international community.

HONDURAS (2 April) FS

The country continues to be seriously affected by drier than normal weather associated with El Ni�o. Power cuts and water rationing measures are being implemented by the Government. The foreign exchange earner, sugar cane, is likely to be affected, while serious damage has been incurred to the important coffee crop. The outlook for planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops, due to start from April, is uncertain. Plantings of maize, the main crop, are nevertheless intended to be close to last year�s average, while those of sorghum should increase as the crop was seriously affected by El Ni�o-related drought. Maize imports in 1997/98 marketing year (July/June) are expected to be similar to the previous year�s receipts. Food assistance is being given to the affected farmers by the international community, while measures such as the establishment of small irrigation systems, construction of wells and distribution of pumps are being taken by the Government in an effort to help mitigate the adverse effects of the phenomenon.

JAMAICA (1 April) UNF

Heavy rains and flooding caused by El Ni�o, particularly in the eastern parts of the country, have resulted in severe damage to housing, infrastructure and the agricultural sector. Various food and banana export crops are reported to be seriously affected. Other parts of the country, by contrast, are suffering from a prolonged drought with consequent damage to cash crops.

MEXICO (2 April)

Harvesting of the 1998 wheat crop is about to start in the main irrigated areas of the north-west under generally normal conditions. Water reservoirs are at adequate levels and early forecasts point out to a modest increase in production from last year�s slightly below-average level mostly as a result of enlarged plantings. Wheat imports in marketing year 1998/99 (April/March) are forecast to decrease from last year�s relatively high volume of receipts.

Land is being prepared for planting of the 1998 maize crop to be started from April. Intended plantings are forecast to be close to 1997 near record levels assuming adequate weather conditions remain. This reflects a sustained demand for this most important commodity in the population�s diet.

NICARAGUA (2 April) FS

Dry weather conditions associated with El Ni�o persist over most of the country. Planting of the 1998/99 first season cereal crops is about to start and intended plantings of maize, the main crop, are expected to expand considerably from last year assuming normal rains resume. Maize imports in marketing year 1997/98 (July/June) have increased from 31 000 tonnes in the previous year to some 175 000 tonnes as a result of the serious first season crop losses in 1997. Food aid is being distributed among the affected population as well as agricultural tools and fertilizers for the rehabilitation of agricultural activities.

PANAMA (2 April) FS

The country, and the Pacific coastal areas in particular, continues to be affected by abnormally dry weather and high temperatures associated with El Ni�o. The outlook is uncertain for planting of the 1998/99 cereal crops as these conditions are expected to prevail in the weeks ahead. Plantings of maize and paddy, the main cereals, are intended to recover from the low levels of the previous year, when the crops were severely affected by drought, but much will depend on whether normal rains resume. Rice imports in 1998 (January/December) should be about 100 000 tonnes to compensate for the deficit in production. This compares to less than 20 000 tonnes in 1997.