FAO/GIEWS - FOODCROPS AND SHORTAGES No.2, May 1998.

SOUTHERN AFRICA

ANGOLA* (26 April) FS

Prospects for the upcoming 1998 harvests are generally favourable in most parts of the country. Following widespread rains in January and February in many areas, crops are generally in good condition, especially in the cereal producing central highlands. However, a few areas of concern include the province of Kuando Kubango, where output may be reduced as a result of delayed rains, and Zaire province where the December-January period was very dry.

With the arrival of early planted crops on the markets and expectations for a good harvest, prices of maize and beans have dropped significantly on major markets such as Huambo. The food supply situation and marketing activities will continue to be hampered in several parts of the country by the security situation which remains uncertain and unstable. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently making an on-the-spot assessment of the harvest outcome and the cereal import requirements, including food aid needs for 1998/99.

BOTSWANA (2 April) UNF

Following abundant and widespread rains in January, rainfall in February and March was lighter and irregular, particularly in the south. Despite an adequate supply of seeds and other agricultural inputs, plantings were constrained by the late start of rains and are forecast to be much below the 1996/97 level. As a result, timely and well distributed rains are needed until the end of April to avoid a significant harvest reduction from the already below-average output in 1997. Nevertheless, stocks and planned grain imports are expected to meet requirements in the 1998/99 marketing year.

LESOTHO (2 April) UNF

The cropping season has been marked by erratic and poorly distributed rainfall and periods of high temperatures in many areas which further reduced the level of soil moisture. Crop conditions range from poor to normal and prospects remain unfavourable for the cereal harvest. Output is forecast to be 25 to 30 percent below the 1997 reduced crop. As a result, districts in the south-west and east are likely to face severe food difficulties. The overall food supply situation in the country could worsen during the upcoming marketing year, unless arrangements for large amounts of imports are made.

MADAGASCAR (2 April) UNF

Weather conditions continue to be favourable for rice and other crops in the country. However, harvest prospects are uncertain given the persistence of swarms of Migratory Locust (Locusta migratoria capito) in several regions. Locust infestations, the worst in 40 years covering some 10 million hectares, continue particularly in the south-western part of the country but spreading to the grain-producing mid-western zones. Current control operations are insufficient to significantly reduce the increasing locust numbers, largely due to low stocks of pesticide, pre-positioning logistics, access difficulties and funding delays.

On 23 March, an FAO Press Release warned the international community of the risk that the infestations may increase and spread further in the coming months, posing a serious threat to rice and other crops to be harvested in the next few months. The Government has set up a Crisis Committee and soldiers have been mobilized for the control operations.

MALAWI* (2 April)

Rainfall in most parts of the country benefited crops and harvest prospects are good. Overall, the 1998 crop is anticipated to be comparable to last year�s average level but could be higher if conditions continue to be favourable in southern areas. Localized areas of concern are in the north where excessive rains resulted in flooding with loss of crops, property and lives. Reflecting the good harvest outlook and the arrival of food crops on markets, prices of maize have decreased significantly during the past few weeks.

MOZAMBIQUE* (2 April) FS

Favourable conditions continue to benefit crops in most parts of the country. Rainfall until March was normal and crops are in good condition. Provided normal weather continues for the remainder of the season, harvests of cereals and other crops should range from near normal to above normal. A few areas of concern are located in central provinces where heavy rains, which continued through February, could have reduced yields.

The overall food supply situation is expected to continue to improve but food assistance is still required in localized dry areas of the south and areas where farmers may have lost their crops due to floods. Donor assistance may therefore be needed for local purchases and transport of grains to deficit areas. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently making an on-the-spot assessment of the harvest outcome and the cereal import requirements, including food aid needs for the 1998/99 marketing year.

NAMIBIA (2 April) UNF

Rainfall in January and part of February was about normal in the eastern half of the country, especially in the Northeast and Caprivi regions, providing relatively favourable conditions for crops. However, subsequent prolonged dry spells and poor rainfall may have adversely affected yields in many growing areas. Late planted crops will need continued and well distributed rains to reach their maturity.

Assuming no serious deterioration in weather conditions in coming weeks, output is expected to be close to average but sharply below the 1997 bumper crop. With large carryover stocks anticipated at the end of the current marketing year, available supply and planned commercial imports should cover consumption requirements during the 1998/99 marketing year.

SOUTH AFRICA (2 April)

Rainfall in February and March was generally favourable for crops in major growing areas, despite above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in early February. Intermittent dry spells in the Free State, North West and Northern Provinces, as well as floods in the Cape Provinces have reduced prospects for a good harvest. An early frost in the upcoming winter period could also reduce yields.

Following the good February/March rains, the official estimate of the maize crop have been revised upwards to 7.4 million tonnes. This is still markedly below the 1997 crop of over 9 million tonnes. A reduced crop during the 1998/99 marketing year would reduce the country�s ability to export maize to countries of the sub-region.

SWAZILAND (2 April)

As a result of favourable weather throughout the season harvest prospects are good for the 1998 cereal crops, although yields may have been affected by heavy rains in several areas. A hailstorm in early March also damaged crops in some areas. Rainfall distribution has also been good but unusually high temperatures may have caused moisture stress especially in the Low Veld. Provided favourable conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, an above-average cereal harvest is expected. The current overall food supply situation is satisfactory and most of the imports are expected to be met through commercial channels.

ZAMBIA (2 April)

Widespread and abundant rains received in most parts of the country in January and February were beneficial to crops, particularly in Southern and Western Provinces. However, excessive rainfall, resulting in localized flooding, adversely affected the crops in the Northern, Luapula and Eastern provinces. Although the extent of damage has not been fully assessed, the wet conditions affected yields due to water-logging and loss of soil nutrients.

Early prospects for the 1998 cereal harvest are favourable in the major growing areas. Provided conditions do not deteriorate during the next few weeks, production should be higher than the 1997 level of 1.1 million tons. The current food supply situation is generally satisfactory as a result of recent imports of maize and available cereal supply should cover needs until the arrival of the new crop. However, additional imports may be required during the 1998/99 marketing year to cover the country�s cereal needs. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is scheduled to visit the country in April/May to estimate the 1998 production, evaluate the impact of floods and forecast the country�s import needs for the 1998/99 marketing year.

ZIMBABWE* (2 April) UNF

Widespread and abundant rains in January, which benefited crops in most parts of the country, were followed in February and March by light rainfall, particularly in the southern areas. Most affected by dry spells were the marginal farming areas of the south. Overall, crop conditions are good in the northern areas but poor in the drought-prone southern areas, which have received below normal rainfall so far. While early planted crops have reached maturity, late planted cereals, which experienced severe moisture stress in February, require more rain to reach maturity.

The current overall food supply situation is relatively tight. Since carryover stocks are expected to be lower than in the previous year, to help cushion the impact of a reduced output the country may become a net importer of cereals. Targeted food assistance may also be required for vulnerable groups in the southern dry areas where the harvest is likely to be poor.