Overall production outlook is favourable in Southern Africa, notwithstanding prolonged dry spells in several areas, particularly in the southern part of the sub-region, including Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Locusts continue to pose a serious threat to crops in Madagascar. FAO/WFP Missions are currently visiting Angola, Mozambique and Zambia to review the outcome of the 1998 harvests and assess the food supply situation and outlook in these countries.
In western Africa, rains have started in the south of the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, allowing plantings of the first maize crop. Seasonably hot and dry conditions prevail in the Sahel. The significant progress in the security situation and the lifting of the embargo in Sierra Leone, has facilitated the distribution of humanitarian assistance and the implementation of rehabilitation activities. Similarly, some improvement in the nutritional situation of the population is reported in Liberia due to the more stable security situation throughout the country, which allowed improved distribution of food including the relief aid.
In Asia, the outlook for the 1998 early grain harvests remains mixed. In China winter wheat output is anticipated to decline due to drought conditions in some major wheat growing areas. By contrast average to above-average harvests of wheat are in prospect in India and Bangladesh. In Pakistan, a record wheat output is anticipated from increases in area sown and use of fertilizers. A recent FAO/WFP mission to Indonesia has found that the combined effect of severe drought (attributed to El Niño) and the unprecedented financial crisis has seriously undermined the food security in the country. International assistance will be required for the supply of 2 million tons of rice in 1998/99. Elsewhere, severe drought conditions associated with El Niño are expected to reduce this year’s secondary paddy and maize crops in the Philippines. In the Pacific rim, the food supply situation has been adversely affected by drought in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands and by tropical cyclones in the Cook Islands.
El Niño continues to pose a threat to crops in parts of Latin America. In Central America and the Caribbean, abnormally dry weather and high temperatures associated with El Niño persist, posing a threat to the planting of the 1998/99 first season cereal crops which is about to start. In Cuba and Jamaica, by contrast, heavy rains and flooding have resulted in serious damage to crops. In South America, El Niño-related torrential rains and flooding, combined with drought in some parts, continue to affect the Andean countries and other areas of the sub-region with consequent damage to the 1998 first season cereal crops.
In the CIS, untimely snow has delayed spring fieldwork in European parts, exacerbating chronic difficulties associated with shortages of working capital, inputs and machinery. Early indications are that the 1998 cereal harvest could be less than in 1997.
Prospects for the 1998 cereal crops remain satisfactory in the EC but are mixed in the eastern European countries. In Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, smaller crops are in prospect reflecting, partly, adverse planting and growing conditions.
In the United States winter wheat area fell and spring plantings are also expected to decrease. However, winter wheat crops have benefited from favourable weather. Planting of coarse grains is underway and the maize area is projected to increase marginally. In Canada, the bulk of wheat and coarse grain sowing has yet to start.
In Australia, latest forecasts indicate a decrease in winter grain plantings. However, the output of the minor 1998 summer coarse grain is forecast to increase.