COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

ARMENIA (3 June)

The outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is satisfactory. Official reports indicate that the area sown to grains, 183 000 hectares, is close to last year's level. At this stage, average yields are expected to be higher than last year, when adverse weather damaged crops on 110 000 hectares. The 1998 grain harvest is targeted at 297 000 tonnes, compared to the official estimate of 258 000 tonnes in 1997. The overall food supply situation has stabilized. The country has become almost self sufficient in potato and vegetable production, which have substituted grains in the diet to some extent. Current indications are that the 1997/98 cereal import requirement of 360 000 tonnes is covered.

AZERBAIJAN (3 June)

The outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is satisfactory so far. The winter wheat area -536 000 hectares - increased but spring grain plantings are unlikely to offset the sharp fall in the area sown to winter barley. Although the aggregate area sown to grains could fall to 620 000 hectares, better yields than last year's flood affected crop could result in a larger harvest than last year.

BELARUS (3 June)

Agro-meteorological conditions for the 1998 harvest have been satisfactory overall but the mounting financial crisis could affect the ability of the government to provide credits for the harvest operations. Early indications are that the area sown to cereals for harvest in 1998 could fall slightly - to about 2.8 million hectares - in response to a targeted reduction of 3 percent in the feedgrain area. Nevertheless output is targeted to reach 7 million tonnes, some 11 percent more than last years 6.4 million tonnes. Grain imports in 1998 are to be limited to 500 000 tonnes by official decree. The availability of basic foodstuffs has deteriorated following the official order to keep prices at the 1 March level, in an attempt to stem inflation.

GEORGIA (3 June)

The 1998 harvest outlook has been compromised by dry conditions and powerful windstorms which have adversely affected winter wheat in the major growing areas of the east. By contrast, planting conditions for the spring maize crop, mainly produced in the west, have been satisfactory. The country is self sufficient in maize but the wheat import requirement in 1998/99 could rise. Nevertheless, the overall food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory reflecting a diversified agriculture and the activities of a robustly growing private sector.

The economy is recovering steadily but there remain some 170 000 vulnerable people and IDPs needing targeted food assistance. The recent outbreak of hostilities in the area bordering Abkhazia has increased the number of internally displaced and homeless and the death of over 200 000 people. WFP is providing emergency food assistance to the displaced.

KAZAKHSTAN (3 June)

Spring grain planting is underway. Latest indications are that a surplus of grains in store and shortages of working capital, seed and fuel could reduce the aggregate area sown to grains to about 12 million hectares against 14.6 million hectares last year. Current indications are that winter grain plantings remained close to last year's level of 700 000 hectares. Assuming clean weight yields of about 0.8 tonnes a hectare, the 1998 grain harvest could fall to about 10-11 million tonnes from 12.3 million tonnes in 1997. Even so, the country could export about 3 million tonnes of grain in the coming marketing year. Cereal exports in the first nine months of the current marketing year have totalled 3.3 million tonnes.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (3 June)

The harvest outlook remains satisfactory and the target is to equal or improve last year's record 1.7 million tonnes. Grain production has increased rapidly in the past years to the extent that the country reportedly has an exportable surplus. GDP growth has resumed but the transition has been difficult and most of the population continues to suffer economic impoverishment. Twenty percent of the population lives below the poverty line and another 62 percent is classified as being on the verge of poverty.

MOLDOVA (4 June)

The 1998 grain production target is 3.1 million tonnes. Growing conditions to date have been somewhat mixed but satisfactory overall. Indications are that the area sown has remained fairly stable at 0.9 million hectares.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (4 June)

Spring grain planting is proceeding slowly after a late start reflecting shortages of working capital and operational machinery. By early June, the area sown to spring grains on the large farms was 30.4 million hectares, nearly 10 percent less than last year. Plantings in the Urals and the New Lands (Eastern Siberia)are well behind also due to rains and cold weather. The outlook for winter grains has deteriorated somewhat insofar as the area damaged by winterkill (11.5 percent) is almost double that reported earlier and about average. Reflecting the surplus of feedgrains and the reduced profitability of grains, indications are that the use of yield enhancing inputs could remain low and that yields could be less than last year. FAO tentatively forecasts the 1998 grain harvest at around 80 million tonnes, some 10 percent less than last year. Loans form the subsidized agricultural credit fund will continue to be made at 12.5 percent despite the increase in the key interest rate. Ten months into the 1997/98 marketing year, the country had exported only 2.2 million tonnes from the exportable surplus of 10 million tonnes.

TAJIKISTAN* (4 June)

The outlook for the 1998 grain harvest has not been seriously affected by the floods and landslides and a good harvest, of about 600 000 tonnes, is expected. Growing conditions have been satisfactory overall but not as good as last year. However, the area sown to grains is thought to have increased slightly, offsetting marginally lower yield expectations. Harvesting of winter wheat is about to start. The price of wheat on the market is falling and the grain supply situation is stable.

The heavy rains, floods and landslides have caused extensive damage and loss of life; the government has requested international donor assistance for the victims including 1 500 made homeless.

TURKMENISTAN (4 June)

The outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is satisfactory. FAO tentatively expects the 1998 grain harvest to be about 800 000 tonnes, well below the target of 1.2 million tonnes. In 1997 the country produced 730 000 tonnes from 539 000 hectares. Indications are that the aggregate area sown to grains, and particularly wheat, has increased somewhat. Growing conditions to date have been satisfactory but not as good as last year. Average yields, however, could benefit from the availability of agricultural credit and improved incentives to produce on land held in leasehold.

THE UKRAINE (4 June)

The outlook is for the 1998 grain harvest to be somewhat less than last year. Latest indications are that spring grain plantings could remain at last year's level of about 5.2 million hectares in the state sector but the harvested winter grain area is likely to be 10 percent less than last year. Growing conditions have been somewhat mixed but satisfactory overall. Better availability of fertilizers could help to stabilize yields. The 1998 grain harvest could be less than FAO's estimate of the 1997 harvest (37 million tonnes). The area sown to sunflowers has increased and that planted to sugarbeet has fallen sharply.

UZBEKISTAN (4 June)

Winter grains have benefited from the late spring and good moisture supplies for spring growth. Although the area sown to winter grains has declined as about 100 000 hectares of marginal land have been diverted to fodder crop production, the impact on average yields could be positive. The grain production target for 1998 is 6.1 million tonnes, compared to actual production of 3.8 million tonnes in 1997. The country has passed a land privatization law which gives town or regional authorities the right to lease land only to Uzbek citizens engaged in agriculture or for house-building purposes.

EUROPE

EC (10 June)

FAO tentatively forecasts the EC's aggregate 1998 cereal output at 209 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from the previous year. Winter crops throughout the Community are reported to be in satisfactory condition after a mild winter and development is somewhat ahead of normal. With regard to spring crops, despite some localized weather problems in the past two months, plantings have generally proceeded normally throughout the Community. Aggregate wheat output is forecast to increase by some 4 percent to 99 million tonnes in 1998, while coarse grains output is expected to decline slightly to 107 million tonnes from 110 million tonnes in 1997. Planting of the 1998 paddy crop is in progress and the paddy area is tentatively forecast at about 400 000 hectares, virtually the same as in the previous year. Production is also expected to be around last year's level of about 2.7 million tonnes.

ALBANIA (10 June)

The outlook for the 1998 cereal harvest is satisfactory. With regard to the winter wheat crop, which account for the bulk of the country's cereal production, indications are that farmers had sufficient incentive and adequate access to inputs to ensure an area at least similar to the previous year's has been sown.

With wheat output in 1997 only amounting to about half of the estimated consumption requirements in 1997/98(July/June), the country continues to rely on imports. Most of the shortfall is being met by food aid from the EC. As of February reports indicate that the market continues to be adequately supplied with flour although the domestic milling sector is still operating under capacity due to problems of wheat supply at competitive prices.

The large influx of refugees from Kosovo Province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) is putting further strain on the already vulnerable economy of this rural area of the country. However, as of early June, WFP is sending food aid to north-eastern Albania for some estimated 7500 refugees already reported to have fled to this area, as well as to the Kosovo Province itself.

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA (4 June)

Planting of spring grains (maize) is underway. The area is expected to increase. Food production, notably output of milk, eggs, maize, potatoes and vegetables, is increasing steadily, wheat production, however, is contracting steadily in response to the poor profitability of winter wheat in upland areas and ample availability of imported supplies, the 1998 wheat harvest is expected to decline further. The area sown to winter grains (wheat) declined. In BiH, only 43 000 hectares, or 74 percent of the target area was sown to winter crops. In the Republika Srpska the area sown also fell. Wheat remains an important staple and the 1997/98 cereal imports are estimated at around 275 000 tonnes, mostly for the deficit BiH Federation.

BULGARIA (10 June)

Prospects remain generally favourable for the 1998 cereal crops and aggregate output is forecast at about 5.7 - 5.8 million tonnes, compared to 6.2 million tonnes in 1997. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for about 3.3 million tonnes. The wheat area for harvest is estimated at 1.08 million hectares and although significant variations in crop conditions are reported throughout the country, average yields are forecast at just over 3 tonnes/hectare. However, some uncertainties still surround the final outcome of the harvest. Warm and humid spring weather caused considerable disease problems in wheat crops, and despite reasonable control measures, the quality of wheat is expected to be affected. In addition, farmers generally poor financial situation has been aggravated by difficulties in selling last year's surplus wheat crop, and this may lead to delays in this year's harvest.

CROATIA (5 June)

Crop production is recovering sharply and the early outlook for 1998 grain harvest remains satisfactory. Spring crop planting is well advanced. The maize area could increase but sugarbeet plantings are down. The winter crop area increased to 284 000 hectares, but remained below target. The winter grain area increased by 11 percent to 260 000 hectares, of which wheat accounts for 227 000 hectares.

CZECH REPUBLIC (10 June)

Recent dry weather has slightly deteriorated the outlook for the 1998 cereal crops but nevertheless, a similar output to last year at about 7 million tonnes is forecast. The total cereal area is estimated to have increased but yields are expected to be somewhat lower.

ESTONIA (4 June)

The outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is satisfactory. The area sown is similar to last year's and a harvest of 600 000 tonnes is forecast.

HUNGARY (10 June)

Latest information points to an about average cereal crop in 1998, down by some 2 million tonnes from the bumper harvest last year. Winter wheat plantings were reduced last autumn and plants were stressed during the winter by periods of frost and dry soil conditions. Good rains in late April and the middle of May improved the prospects for the winter wheat crops somewhat, but were not sufficient to replenish subsoil moisture reserves and thus the yield and quality of crops will still depend greatly on the weather in June. Latest official indications tentatively forecast wheat output at about 5 million tonnes, compared to 5.3 million tonnes in 1997. Maize planting this spring was completed in mid-May on about 1.1 million hectares, similar to the previous year's area.

LATVIA (5 June)

The early outlook for the 1998 grain harvest is satisfactory. The 1998 grain harvest is currently expected to be just over one million tonnes, remaining close to last year's 1.04 million tonnes. Early indications are that the area sown to grains for harvest in 1998 may decline somewhat. Some 160 000 hectares were sown to winter wheat and rye compared to 175 000 in the preceding year. The area to be sown this spring, targeted at 302 000 hectares, is similar to last year's.

LITHUANIA (5 June)

Spring grain planting is underway under generally satisfactory conditions. Following a good harvest of 3.05 million tonnes in 1997 and an exportable surplus of grains, which is proving difficult to market, the area sown to cereals for harvest in 1998 could decline somewhat.

POLAND (10 June)

The 1998 cereal output is forecast to remain virtually unchanged from the previous year at about 25 million tonnes. Of the total, the major winter wheat and rye crops are expected to amount to almost 14 million tonnes. These crops are reported to have survived winter much better than in the previous year due to milder conditions, but the benefits of this may be offset by lower use of fertilizers. Many farmers are short of funds for inputs because they have still not sold grain from last year's harvest.

ROMANIA (10 June)

Spring weather conditions have been generally favourable for the 1998 cereals. Spring maize and barley planting made good pace in early May when warm and dry conditions prevailed. Good rainfall in the second half of the month favoured germination and crop development. However, latest information continues to point to a significant reduction in cereal output in 1998, mostly due to a smaller wheat area and significantly lower yields expected, after last year's bumper crop. Adverse autumn weather last year affected planting and low input use is expected to be reflected in low yields. Although the spring maize area is estimated to be somewhat above last year's, yields are also expected to be lower.

SLOVAK REPUBLIC (10 June)

Latest indications point to an aggregate cereal output of about 3.6 million tonnes in 1998, close to the previous year's crop. The weather during the winter was generally warmer and drier than normal, which favoured early spring crop planting, but reduced soil moisture, and has likely affected yields of both winter and spring crops. As in several other eastern European countries, Slovakia has a surplus of feed grains from the 1997 harvest, which has resulted in a marked drop in prices. As a result many farmers are short of finances and may have difficulty in funding this year's harvest.

YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO) (1 June)

Despite severe financial constraints on farm and a large exportable surplus of maize, the early crop outlook is satisfactory. Winter wheat, sown on about 800 000 hectares, is reported to be in good condition and output could exceed last year's level of 2.9 million tonnes. Planting of spring crops is virtually completed. Early indications are that the area sown to maize has increased at the expense of sugarbeet.

A sharp devaluation of the dinar has disrupted the availability of basic foodstuffs in state shops at controlled prices. However, the private trade has adequate stocks, but at higher than official prices.

In Kosovo province, the cropping situation is being adversely affected by ongoing violence, which has displaced over 42 000 persons by late May. Subsequently many refugees have moved out of the province into neighbouring Albania. The food supply situation is also becoming more difficult as private store owners report that they are having difficulty in replenishing their stocks of basic staples such as milk, sugar, wheat flour, rice and cooking oil.